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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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Briefing · debt

Debt & fiscal: where the data is diverging

18 debt & fiscal signals are diverging right now; 12 moving against their own trend; 6 sitting far from the global norm — led by Venezuela.

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In short

Venezuela — Government debt is well above the global norm (308.7%).
Eritrea — Government debt is well above the global norm (260.4%).
Japan — Government debt is well above the global norm (204.4%).
Venezuela — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trend (308.7%).

Supporting signals

The data behind this note

1Venezuela — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt308.7%+6.03σ
2Eritrea — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt260.4%+4.85σ
3Japan — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt204.4%+3.49σ
4Venezuela — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt308.7%+139.6pp
5Taiwan — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt27.6%+5.2pp
6Singapore — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt171.9%+2.7σ
7Sudan — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt169.1%+2.63σ
8Bahrain — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt152.4%+2.23σ

Generated from current observations and the signal engine. Describes movement in the data — not a forecast or investment advice.