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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Briefing · debt

Debt & fiscal: where the data is diverging

15 debt & fiscal signals are diverging right now; 9 moving against their own trend; 6 sitting far from the global norm — led by Venezuela.

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In short

  • ›Venezuela — Government debt is well above the global norm (308.7%).
  • ›Eritrea — Government debt is well above the global norm (260.4%).
  • ›South Korea — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trend (52.4%).
  • ›Venezuela — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trend (308.7%).

Supporting signals

The data behind this note

Ranked across countries with ≥1 M people or ≥$10 bn GDP so micro-territories don't crowd the board.

  • 1Venezuela — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt308.7%▲+5.72σ
  • 2Eritrea — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt260.4%▲+4.6σ
  • 3South Korea — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt52.4%▼−5.1pp
  • 4Venezuela — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt308.7%▲+139.6pp
  • 5Japan — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt204.8%▲+3.31σ
  • 6Sudan — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt204.4%▲+3.3σ
  • 7Eswatini — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt44.8%▲+7.7pp
  • 8Kuwait — Government debt is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGovernment debt14.6%▲+12pp

Generated from current observations and the signal engine. Describes movement in the data — not a forecast or investment advice.