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PredictonomyPredictonomy

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Economic signal intelligence

See the shift before it’s the story.

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts for every major economy — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Explore economiesHow it works

Research and analysis only. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain. Not investment advice.

Global growth · 10-year scenario path

Live
Observed Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic
Regime

“Global growth is firming; inflation is reaccelerating; public debt is still climbing.”

Derived from the latest global observations
Global population
8.2bn
▼−1.95%YoY

World Bank Indicators API · 2025

Global GDP
$118.4T
▲+6.71%YoY

Before consensus

Where the data is moving first

View all →

Cross-entity divergences — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Every signal is a z-score over real observations.

Yemen, Rep. · Population

Yemen, Rep. — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
0.02B▼−53.62%

Cyprus · Population

Cyprus — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
0.00B

Sentiment

Global macro mood

Sentiment analysis →

Global sentiment

+0.16

balanced

Avg. stress

42

/ 100 · 216 economies

Most supportive

  • St. Martin (French part)+0.90Normal
  • Northern Mariana Islands+0.90Normal
  • Monaco+0.90Normal

Movers

Largest economies

All economies →
EconomyISOGDPYear
United StatesUSA$30.8T2025
ChinaCHN$19.5T2025
Germany

Macro → micro

CitySignals: UK Financial Expectations

Global rates flow through UK mortgage pricing, lending and arrears into house prices. Follow the chain — each node is a live signal; each arrow carries its lag.

UK Property →CitySignals

Policy interest rate

— ◆
→↓

Est. lag: 1–3 months

Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.

Effective new mortgage rate

4.4% ◆
→↓

Est. lag: 1–2 months

Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.

Approvals & net lending

£7.7bn ◆
→↓

Est. lag: 3–6 months

Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.

Arrears pressure

£20.1bn ◆
→↓

Est. lag: 6–12 months

Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.

Regional house prices

2.7% ◆
→↓

Est. lag: 0–3 months

House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.

UK Property health score

— ◆

Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.

Trust & methodology

Forecasts should show their workings.

Predictonomy keeps assumptions, uncertainty and source context visible — so every scenario can be challenged, explained and refined.

Transparent assumptions

Model type, lookback, recent-data weighting, volatility adjustment and horizon are all visible in the methodology layer.

Scenario forecasts

Baseline, optimistic and pessimistic paths are stored for every run, so uncertainty stays in view.

Confidence bands

Ranges expose uncertainty instead of dressing point estimates up as certainty.

Sourced & dated

Every observation carries its provider, source URL and a freshness status you can check.

Refreshed on schedule

Data and predictions refresh on daily cron jobs against official public providers.

Not investment advice

Built for research, analysis and media workflows — not personalised investment recommendations.

Stay ahead

Research updates & partnerships.

For research updates, data partnerships or media workflows. We’ll only get in touch about what you asked for.

Free account coming soon

World Bank Indicators API · 2025

Real growth
2.9%
▲+0.18ppYoY

World Bank Indicators API · 2025

Inflation
3.0%
▲+1.36ppYoY

World Bank Indicators API · 2025

Debt / GDP
95.3%
▲+1.4ppYoY

IMF DataMapper API · 2026

▼
−27.41%

Dominican Republic · Population

Dominican Republic — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
0.01B▼−4.73%

Cayman Islands · Exports

Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
59.6%▼−14.16%

Turkmenistan · Population

Turkmenistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
0.01B▼−11.36%

Papua New Guinea · Population

Papua New Guinea — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trend →
0.01B▲+21.46%

Explore the world

Pick a region to dive in

Live

A live map of major economies. Spin the globe, hover to pause, then click a hub for quick stats — chat with the AI about it or dive into its macro & micro data.

Hover to pause · tap a hub

Most stressed

  • Virgin Islands (U.S.)−0.76Stressed
  • Sudan−0.58Stressed
  • Yemen, Rep.−0.54Stressed

Derived from live macro series across the covered economies — not market or news sentiment. Explore sentiment →

Predictive

Projected sentiment movers

All movers →

Projected improvers

  • West Bank and Gaza+0.42
  • South Sudan+0.38
  • Sudan+0.28

Projected deteriorators

  • Isle of Man−0.38
  • American Samoa−0.28
  • Cuba−0.26

Today’s sentiment vs the forward outlook from baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed.

DEU
$5.1T
2025
JapanJPN$4.4T2025
United KingdomGBR$4T2025
IndiaIND$4T2025

Featured

Economies to watch

United States

North America

US

Baseline growth

2.0%

78% conf.

China

East Asia

CN

Baseline growth

4.4%

70% conf.

Germany

Europe

DE

Baseline growth

0.9%

73% conf.

Japan

East Asia

JP

Baseline growth

1.0%

76% conf.

India

South Asia

IN

Baseline growth

6.4%

74% conf.

United Kingdom

Europe

GB

Baseline growth

1.3%

72% conf.