Economic signal intelligence
Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts for every major economy — built to surface trends before they become consensus.
Research and analysis only. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain. Not investment advice.
Global growth · 10-year scenario path
Live“Global growth is firming; inflation is reaccelerating; public debt is still climbing.”
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Before consensus
Cross-entity divergences — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Every signal is a z-score over real observations.
Sentiment
Global sentiment
+0.16
balanced
Avg. stress
42
/ 100 · 216 economies
Most supportive
Movers
| Economy | ISO | GDP | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | USA | $30.8T | 2025 |
| China | CHN | $19.5T | 2025 |
| Germany |
Macro → micro
Global rates flow through UK mortgage pricing, lending and arrears into house prices. Follow the chain — each node is a live signal; each arrow carries its lag.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.
Trust & methodology
Predictonomy keeps assumptions, uncertainty and source context visible — so every scenario can be challenged, explained and refined.
Transparent assumptions
Model type, lookback, recent-data weighting, volatility adjustment and horizon are all visible in the methodology layer.
Scenario forecasts
Baseline, optimistic and pessimistic paths are stored for every run, so uncertainty stays in view.
Confidence bands
Ranges expose uncertainty instead of dressing point estimates up as certainty.
Sourced & dated
Every observation carries its provider, source URL and a freshness status you can check.
Refreshed on schedule
Data and predictions refresh on daily cron jobs against official public providers.
Not investment advice
Built for research, analysis and media workflows — not personalised investment recommendations.
Stay ahead
For research updates, data partnerships or media workflows. We’ll only get in touch about what you asked for.
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
Explore the world
A live map of major economies. Spin the globe, hover to pause, then click a hub for quick stats — chat with the AI about it or dive into its macro & micro data.
Hover to pause · tap a hub
Most stressed
Derived from live macro series across the covered economies — not market or news sentiment. Explore sentiment →
Predictive
Projected improvers
Projected deteriorators
Today’s sentiment vs the forward outlook from baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed.
| $5.1T |
| 2025 |
| Japan | JPN | $4.4T | 2025 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | $4T | 2025 |
| India | IND | $4T | 2025 |
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