Economic signal intelligence

See the shift before it’s the story.

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts for every major economy — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Explore economies How it works

Research and analysis only. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain. Not investment advice.

Global growth · 10-year scenario path

Live

Observed Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic

Regime

“Global growth is cooling; inflation is reaccelerating; public debt is still climbing.”

Derived from the latest global observations

Global population

8.1bn

+0.3%YoY

World Bank Indicators API · 2024

Global GDP

$111T

+6.87%YoY

Before consensus

Where the data is moving first

View all →

Cross-entity divergences — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Every signal is a z-score over real observations.

Afghanistan · Exports

Afghanistan — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trend →

16.9%−8.31%

Cayman Islands · Exports

Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trend →

59.6%

Movers

Largest economies

All economies →

Economy	ISO	GDP	Year
United States	USA	$28.8T	2024
China	CHN	$18.7T	2024
Germany

Macro → micro

CitySignals: UK Financial Expectations

Global rates flow through UK mortgage pricing, lending and arrears into house prices. Follow the chain — each node is a live signal; each arrow carries its lag.

UK Property →CitySignals

Policy interest rate

— ◆

Est. lag: 1–3 months

Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.

Effective new mortgage rate

4.1% ◆

Est. lag: 1–2 months

Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.

Approvals & net lending

£4.4bn ◆

Est. lag: 3–6 months

Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.

Arrears pressure

£20.1bn ◆

Est. lag: 6–12 months

Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.

Regional house prices

0.0% ◆

Est. lag: 0–3 months

House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.

UK Property health score

— ◆

Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.

Trust & methodology

Forecasts should show their workings.

Predictonomy keeps assumptions, uncertainty and source context visible — so every scenario can be challenged, explained and refined.

Transparent assumptions

Model type, lookback, recent-data weighting, volatility adjustment and horizon are all visible in the methodology layer.

Scenario forecasts

Baseline, optimistic and pessimistic paths are stored for every run, so uncertainty stays in view.

Confidence bands

Ranges expose uncertainty instead of dressing point estimates up as certainty.

Sourced & dated

Every observation carries its provider, source URL and a freshness status you can check.

Refreshed on schedule

Data and predictions refresh on daily cron jobs against official public providers.

Not investment advice

Built for research, analysis and media workflows — not personalised investment recommendations.

Stay ahead

Research updates & partnerships.

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