Signals

Before consensus

Where the data is moving first — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Method, not noise: every signal is a z-score over real observations.

1Afghanistan — FX reserves ex-gold is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves ex-gold8.4B+13.36%
2Yemen, Rep. — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.02B−53.62%
3Cyprus — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−27.41%
4Dominican Republic — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−4.73%
5Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports59.6%−14.16%
6Turkmenistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−11.36%
7Papua New Guinea — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+21.46%
8Paraguay — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−7.89%
9Maldives — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−21.08%
10Guyana — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+22.49%
11Burundi — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+141.83%
12Ethiopia — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.11B−17.05%
13Haiti — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+6.88%
14Nicaragua — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−2.85%
15Egypt — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.11B−7.02%
16Antigua and Barbuda — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+12.52%
17Dominica — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+15.38%
18Micronesia, Fed. Sts. — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−16.43%
19Argentina — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.05B+4.57%
20Burundi — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$0.5K+133.49%
21Mauritania — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−10.97%
22Malaysia — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.03B−4.85%
23Faroe Islands — Renewables is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumRenewables7.9%+54.9%
24Morocco — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.04B−0.99%
25St. Vincent and the Grenadines — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+11.08%
26Gabon — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−9.14%
27Malawi — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.02B+11.41%
28Kenya — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.05B−5.67%
29Uzbekistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.04B+5.1%
30Togo — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+16.63%
31Venezuela — Inflation is well above the global normpeerInflation387.4%+13.48σ
32Equatorial Guinea — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−13.18%
33Iran — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.09B−4.85%
34Costa Rica — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+5.1%
35Guinea-Bissau — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−8.42%
36Djibouti — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−9.72%
37Pakistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.25B−3.96%
38Barbados — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+3.32%
39United States — GDP is well above the global normpeerGDP$32.4T+11.73σ
40Jamaica — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−2.86%
41China — FX reserves ex-gold is well above the global normpeerFX reserves ex-gold3,424.9B+11.43σ
42Somalia, Fed. Rep. — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.02B−11.28%
43Kiribati — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−4.02%
44China — FX reserves is well above the global normpeerFX reserves3,748.7B+10.71σ
45Eswatini — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−6.38%
46Comoros — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+5.34%
47St. Kitts and Nevis — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+10.82%
48Turkmenistan — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$12.3K+88.08%
49Micronesia, Fed. Sts. — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$5.5K+24.92%
50India — Population is well above the global normpeerPopulation1.48B+10.04σ

Method

Momentum — the latest period-over-period change is ≥1.5 standard deviations from the series’ own prior changes. Flags a break from trend before it’s obvious.

Peer — the country’s latest reading is ≥2σ from the cross-country norm for that indicator. Flags genuine outliers, not the pack.

Signals describe movement in the data; they are not forecasts or recommendations.