Signals

Before consensus

Where the data is moving first — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Method, not noise: every signal is a z-score over real observations.

1Afghanistan — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports16.9%−8.31%
2Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports59.6%−14.16%
3West Bank and Gaza — Inflation is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumInflation53.7%+47.8pp
4Venezuela — Inflation is well above the global normpeerInflation387.4%+13.39σ
5United States — GDP is well above the global normpeerGDP$32.4T+11.73σ
6India — Population is well above the global normpeerPopulation1.48B+10.04σ
7Guyana — Productivity is well above the global normpeerProductivity41.47%+9.71σ
8China — Population is well above the global normpeerPopulation1.40B+9.51σ
9Suriname — Investment is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumInvestment37.5%−9.54pp
10West Bank and Gaza — Real GDP growth is well below the global normpeerReal GDP growth-26.56%−8.29σ
11Sudan — Unemployment is well above the global normpeerUnemployment61.3%+7.9σ
12China — GDP is well above the global normpeerGDP$20.9T+7.47σ
13Monaco — GDP per capita is well above the global normpeerGDP per capita$288.0K+7.06σ
14Bolivia — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.1T+25.67%
15DR Congo — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.1T+32.93%
16Israel — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.7T+17.86%
17Venezuela — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt308.7%+6.03σ
18Zambia — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+42.81%
19Bolivia — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$6.3K+24.02%
20Burkina Faso — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+19.8%
21West Bank and Gaza — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T−23.18%
22Marshall Islands — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$9.7K+14.51%
23Liechtenstein — GDP per capita is well above the global normpeerGDP per capita$226.8K+5.41σ
24Paraguay — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.1T+22.66%
25Morocco — Unemployment is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumUnemployment12.2%+3.2pp
26Palau — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−5.56%
27Mauritania — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+16.79%
28Israel — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$69.8K+15.69%
29Eritrea — Government debt is well above the global normpeerGovernment debt260.4%+4.85σ
30Guyana — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+25.33%
31West Bank and Gaza — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$2.6K−24.97%
32Lebanon — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−7.78%
33New Caledonia — Real GDP growth is well below the global normpeerReal GDP growth-13.50%−4.61σ
34Marshall Islands — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+11.04%
35Haiti — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+22.05%
36Luxembourg — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports191.5%+4.55σ
37Hong Kong — Imports is well above the global normpeerImports177.7%+4.42σ
38Belize — Unemployment is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumUnemployment2.6%−6.26pp
39San Marino — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports186.0%+4.38σ
40Luxembourg — Imports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumImports159.7%−13.74%
41Paraguay — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$9.4K+21.84%
42Sao Tome and Principe — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+18.35%
43Hong Kong — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports181.8%+4.25σ
44Suriname — Current account is well below the global normpeerCurrent account-44.8%−4.19σ
45Switzerland — Unemployment is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumUnemployment3.0%−1.87pp
46Mozambique — Current account is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumCurrent account-43.0%−28.8pp
47Singapore — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports178.8%+4.16σ
48Benin — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+13.96%
49Luxembourg — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports191.5%−11.89%
50Haiti — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$3.1K+20.43%

Method

Momentum — the latest period-over-period change is ≥1.5 standard deviations from the series’ own prior changes. Flags a break from trend before it’s obvious.

Peer — the country’s latest reading is ≥2σ from the cross-country norm for that indicator. Flags genuine outliers, not the pack.

Signals describe movement in the data; they are not forecasts or recommendations.