Signals

Before consensus

Where the data is moving first — series breaking from their own trend, and countries sitting far from the global norm. Method, not noise: every signal is a z-score over real observations.

Ranked across countries with ≥1 M people or ≥$10 bn GDP so micro-territories don't crowd the board.

1Dominican Republic — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−4.73%
2Paraguay — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−7.89%
3Haiti — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+6.88%
4Nicaragua — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−2.85%
5Egypt — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.12B−7.02%
6Argentina — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.05B+4.57%
7Malaysia — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.04B−4.85%
8Morocco — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.04B−0.99%
9Gabon — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−9.14%
10Kenya — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.06B−5.67%
11Uzbekistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.04B+5.1%
12Iran — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.09B−4.85%
13Panama — Electricity use is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumElectricity use2,242−27.25%
14Costa Rica — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B+5.1%
15Guinea-Bissau — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−8.42%
16Djibouti — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−9.72%
17Pakistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.26B−3.96%
18Jamaica — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B−2.86%
19United States — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves1,385.4B+52.24%
20Germany — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves572.2B+51.4%
21France — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves428.2B+51.39%
22China — FX reserves ex-gold is well above the global normpeerFX reserves ex-gold3,424.9B+10.78σ
23Italy — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves434.0B+49.38%
24United States — GDP is well above the global normpeerGDP$30.8T+10.46σ
25Venezuela — Inflation is well above the global normpeerInflation252.0%+10.34σ
26China — FX reserves is well above the global normpeerFX reserves3,748.7B+10.1σ
27Guatemala — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves32.8B+34.17%
28Uruguay — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.00B+2.85%
29Guinea — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.02B+7.27%
30Guyana — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T+48.87%
31Portugal — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves68.8B+62.23%
32Kyrgyz Republic — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves8.6B+69.07%
33Philippines — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.12B−1.47%
34South Sudan — Real GDP growth is well above the global normpeerReal GDP growth41.40%+8.88σ
35Nicaragua — FX reserves ex-gold is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves ex-gold8.3B+36.36%
36India — Population is well above the global normpeerPopulation1.46B+8.81σ
37Nicaragua — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves8.3B+36.36%
38Guatemala — FX reserves ex-gold is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves ex-gold30.9B+29.75%
39Ethiopia — Electricity use is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumElectricity use157+39.54%
40China — Population is well above the global normpeerPopulation1.41B+8.46σ
41Paraguay — Electricity use is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumElectricity use2,849+19.27%
42Chad — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.02B−7.2%
43Paraguay — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$7.0K+40.99%
44Laos — FX reserves ex-gold is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves ex-gold3.7B+67.84%
45Israel — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.6T+22.3%
46Tajikistan — Population is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumPopulation0.01B−2.38%
47Ethiopia — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports13.3%+139.81%
48Monaco — GDP per capita is well above the global normpeerGDP per capita$288.0K+7.73σ
49Mauritania — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$2.2K+37.18%
50Netherlands — FX reserves is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumFX reserves118.1B+49.19%

Method

Momentum — the latest period-over-period change is ≥1.5 standard deviations from the series’ own prior changes. Flags a break from trend before it’s obvious.

Peer — the country’s latest reading is ≥2σ from the cross-country norm for that indicator. Flags genuine outliers, not the pack.

Signals describe movement in the data; they are not forecasts or recommendations.