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PredictonomyPredictonomy

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Explore · by indicator

Indicators

Every enabled signal, defined in configuration with units, sources, cadence and forecast settings. Open one for global history, rankings and divergence.

confidence

Consumer confidence

index

OECD Composite Leading Indicators — consumer confidence survey index (amplitude-adjusted, long-run mean = 100).

monthly·OECD (Composite Leading Indicators, amplitude-adjusted)·exponential smoothing

Business confidence

index

OECD Composite Leading Indicators — business confidence survey index (amplitude-adjusted, long-run mean = 100).

monthly·OECD (Composite Leading Indicators, amplitude-adjusted)·exponential smoothing

debt

Government debt

percent of GDP

General government gross debt as a share of GDP.

annual·IMF DataMapper API·linear trend

energy

Energy use

kg of oil equivalent per capita

Energy use per person, in kilograms of oil equivalent (World Bank WDI).

annual·World Bank WDI

Renewables

percent

Renewable energy as a share of total final energy consumption (World Bank WDI).

annual·World Bank WDI

Energy imports

percent

Net energy imports as a share of energy use; negative values indicate a net energy exporter (World Bank WDI).

annual·World Bank WDI

Electricity use

kWh per capita

Electric power consumption per person, in kilowatt-hours (World Bank WDI).

annual·World Bank WDI

inflation

Inflation

percent

Annual percentage change in consumer prices.

annual·World Bank WDI·exponential smoothing

CPI monthly

percent

Consumer price inflation, all items, year-on-year rate for the latest month (HICP for European countries, CPI-U for the United States).

monthly·ECB Data Portal / FRED·mean reversion

labour

Unemployment

percent

Share of the labour force that is unemployed.

annual·World Bank WDI·linear trend

markets

EUR/USD

USD per EUR

Euro to US dollar exchange rate (ECB reference rate, daily).

daily·ECB FX reference rates (via frankfurter.dev)

GBP/USD

USD per GBP

Pound sterling to US dollar exchange rate (ECB reference rate, daily).

daily·ECB FX reference rates (via frankfurter.dev)

USD/JPY

JPY per USD

US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate (ECB reference rate, daily).

daily·ECB FX reference rates (via frankfurter.dev)

Policy rate

percent

Central bank policy or reference interest rate.

monthly·ECB Data Portal / FRED·mean reversion

10Y yield

percent

Benchmark 10-year government bond yield (euro-area convergence long-term rates; 10-year US treasury constant maturity).

monthly·ECB Data Portal / FRED·mean reversion

output

GDP

current USD

Nominal gross domestic product measured in current US dollars.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite

Real GDP growth

percent

Annual percentage growth rate of real gross domestic product.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite

GDP per capita

current USD per person

Nominal gross domestic product divided by population.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite

Productivity

percent

Estimated labour productivity growth.

annual·World Bank WDI, derived annual percent change·weighted composite

Investment

percent of GDP

Investment measured by gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite

population

Population

people

Total resident population estimate.

annual·World Bank WDI·exponential smoothing

trade

Current account

percent of GDP

Current account balance expressed as a share of GDP.

annual·IMF DataMapper API·linear trend

Exports

percent of GDP

Exports of goods and services as a share of GDP.

annual·World Bank WDI·linear trend

Imports

percent of GDP

Imports of goods and services as a share of GDP.

annual·World Bank WDI·linear trend

FX reserves

current USD

Total foreign-exchange reserves including gold, in current US dollars. A buffer of external liquidity a country holds against balance-of-payments and currency shocks.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite

Reserves cover

months

Total reserves expressed as the number of months of imports they could finance — a standard measure of reserve adequacy (3 months is a common minimum benchmark).

annual·World Bank WDI·mean reversion

FX reserves ex-gold

current USD

Foreign-exchange reserves excluding gold holdings, in current US dollars.

annual·World Bank WDI·weighted composite