debt · indicator
General government gross debt as a share of GDP.
Global · 2025
Baseline · 2026
How it’s forecast
Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Lower readings are generally healthier for this metric.
Trajectory
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
Realized track record: across 208 forecasts published in advance and since matured (through 2026), the typical miss is ±3.03 (6% MAPE) · reliability leaderboard →. A track record, not a guarantee.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 8.0% | 2025 | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Albania | 52.6% | 2025 | 50.4% | 45.9% | 41.5% | 30.4% |
| Algeria | 54.1% | 2025 | 57.7% | 64.8% | 72.0% | 89.8% |
| Andorra | 30.3% | 2025 | 29.6% | 28.3% | 26.9% | 23.5% |
| Angola | 51.3% | 2025 | 49.2% | 44.9% | 40.7% | 30.0% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 69.7% | 2025 | 67.9% | 64.4% | 60.9% | 52.2% |
| Argentina | 80.3% | 2025 | 84.8% | 93.9% | 102.9% | 125.5% |
| Armenia | 49.0% | 2025 | 47.9% | 45.8% | 43.7% | 38.4% |
| Aruba | 63.6% | 2025 | 63.3% | 62.6% | 61.9% | 60.2% |
| Australia | 51.0% | 2025 | 52.3% | 54.8% | 57.4% | 63.7% |
| Austria | 80.5% | 2025 | 80.6% | 80.7% | 80.8% | 81.2% |
| Azerbaijan | 20.1% | 2025 | 20.2% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| Bahamas, The | 73.8% | 2025 | 76.9% | 83.2% | 89.4% | 105.0% |
| Bahrain | 147.6% | 2025 | 154.8% | 169.1% | 183.4% | 219.3% |
| Bangladesh | 42.0% | 2025 | 43.7% | 47.2% | 50.7% | 59.4% |
| Barbados | 94.2% | 2025 | 90.7% | 83.7% | 76.8% | 59.3% |
| Belarus | 33.1% | 2025 | 31.1% | 27.2% | 23.2% | 13.3% |
| Belgium | 106.3% | 2025 | 106.6% | 107.1% | 107.6% | 108.8% |
| Belize | 67.9% | 2025 | 66.5% | 63.8% | 61.1% | 54.2% |
| Benin | 57.3% | 2025 | 60.4% | 66.6% | 72.8% | 88.2% |
| Bhutan | 103.6% | 2025 | 104.6% | 106.7% | 108.8% | 114.0% |
| Bolivia | 84.8% | 2025 | 90.5% | 101.9% | 113.3% | 141.8% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 29.9% | 2025 | 28.5% | 25.7% | 22.8% | 15.8% |
| Botswana | 38.6% | 2025 | 40.1% | 43.2% | 46.3% | 54.0% |
| Brazil | 93.3% | 2025 | 94.2% | 96.1% | 97.9% | 102.5% |
| Brunei | 1.5% | 2025 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Bulgaria | 27.1% | 2025 | 27.3% | 27.7% | 28.2% | 29.2% |
| Burkina Faso | 52.0% | 2025 | 55.0% | 61.0% | 66.9% | 81.9% |
| Burundi | 41.2% | 2025 | 41.6% | 42.3% | 43.0% | 44.9% |
| Cabo Verde | 101.0% | 2025 | 100.7% | 100.0% | 99.4% | 97.8% |
| Cambodia | 26.5% | 2025 | 27.1% | 28.3% | 29.6% | 32.6% |
| Cameroon | 40.4% | 2025 | 41.4% | 43.4% | 45.4% | 50.3% |
| Canada | 113.5% | 2025 | 116.1% | 121.3% | 126.5% | 139.5% |
| Central African Republic | 61.8% | 2025 | 63.3% | 66.4% | 69.5% | 77.2% |
| Chad | 30.4% | 2025 | 29.4% | 27.3% | 25.3% | 20.2% |
| Chile | 41.8% | 2025 | 44.3% | 49.3% | 54.3% | 66.8% |
| China | 99.2% | 2025 | 104.6% | 115.5% | 126.3% | 153.4% |
| Colombia | 59.9% | 2025 | 61.2% | 63.9% | 66.5% | 73.2% |
| Comoros | 29.5% | 2025 | 31.3% | 34.8% | 38.4% | 47.3% |
| Congo | 96.8% | 2025 | 99.1% | 103.7% | 108.3% | 119.8% |
| Costa Rica | 60.4% | 2025 | 62.2% | 65.7% | 69.2% | 77.9% |
| Croatia | 55.9% | 2025 | 53.4% | 48.3% | 43.3% | 30.6% |
| Cyprus | 55.3% | 2025 | 49.8% | 38.9% | 28.0% | 0.8% |
| Czechia | 44.6% | 2025 | 46.0% | 48.9% | 51.8% | 59.0% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 56.3% | 2025 | 59.8% | 66.9% | 73.9% | 91.6% |
| DR Congo | 20.2% | 2025 | 21.3% | 23.6% | 25.9% | 31.6% |
| Denmark | 27.5% | 2025 | 26.0% | 23.1% | 20.1% | 12.7% |
| Djibouti | 32.1% | 2025 | 30.3% | 26.8% | 23.3% | 14.4% |
| Dominica | 102.6% | 2025 | 105.7% | 111.9% | 118.1% | 133.6% |
| Dominican Republic | 59.0% | 2025 | 60.4% | 63.2% | 66.1% | 73.2% |
| Ecuador | 54.4% | 2025 | 55.4% | 57.3% | 59.3% | 64.1% |
| Egypt | 86.8% | 2025 | 86.7% | 86.4% | 86.1% | 85.4% |
| El Salvador | 87.2% | 2025 | 88.6% | 91.4% | 94.2% | 101.1% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 40.6% | 2025 | 40.2% | 39.5% | 38.8% | 37.1% |
| Eritrea | 260.4% | 2019 | 272.0% | 295.2% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Estonia | 24.2% | 2025 | 26.1% | 29.9% | 33.7% | 43.2% |
| Eswatini | 44.9% | 2025 | 47.6% | 53.0% | 58.3% | 71.8% |
| Ethiopia | 43.1% | 2025 | 41.0% | 36.7% | 32.4% | 21.7% |
| Fiji | 78.7% | 2025 | 84.1% | 94.9% | 105.6% | 132.6% |
| Finland | 89.3% | 2025 | 91.6% | 96.2% | 100.8% | 112.3% |
| France | 116.0% | 2025 | 118.2% | 122.5% | 126.8% | 137.5% |
| Gabon | 78.9% | 2025 | 80.3% | 83.2% | 86.0% | 93.1% |
| Gambia, The | 73.9% | 2025 | 73.0% | 71.3% | 69.6% | 65.4% |
| Georgia | 34.3% | 2025 | 33.8% | 32.9% | 31.9% | 29.5% |
| Germany | 62.9% | 2025 | 62.7% | 62.2% | 61.8% | 60.7% |
| Ghana | 48.8% | 2025 | 50.1% | 52.7% | 55.2% | 61.6% |
| Greece | 145.7% | 2025 | 141.6% | 133.4% | 125.1% | 104.6% |
| Grenada | 71.6% | 2025 | 71.7% | 72.0% | 72.2% | 72.8% |
| Guatemala | 27.2% | 2025 | 27.4% | 27.9% | 28.4% | 29.6% |
| Guinea | 48.1% | 2025 | 48.9% | 50.5% | 52.1% | 56.1% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 75.3% | 2025 | 78.4% | 84.6% | 90.7% | 106.2% |
| Guyana | 28.6% | 2025 | 27.2% | 24.4% | 21.6% | 14.6% |
| Haiti | 12.3% | 2025 | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Honduras | 41.2% | 2025 | 41.3% | 41.6% | 41.9% | 42.7% |
| Hong Kong | 11.9% | 2025 | 13.2% | 15.8% | 18.4% | 24.9% |
| Hungary | 75.2% | 2025 | 75.6% | 76.3% | 77.1% | 79.0% |
| Iceland | 56.1% | 2025 | 54.3% | 50.6% | 46.9% | 37.7% |
| India | 84.1% | 2025 | 86.0% | 89.8% | 93.6% | 103.0% |
| Indonesia | 41.0% | 2025 | 42.6% | 45.9% | 49.1% | 57.3% |
| Iran | 37.3% | 2025 | 35.7% | 32.6% | 29.5% | 21.6% |
| Iraq | 53.9% | 2025 | 52.9% | 50.8% | 48.8% | 43.6% |
| Ireland | 32.9% | 2025 | 28.7% | 20.4% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Israel | 68.5% | 2025 | 69.2% | 70.7% | 72.2% | 75.9% |
| Italy | 137.1% | 2025 | 137.3% | 137.8% | 138.2% | 139.3% |
| Jamaica | 67.7% | 2025 | 63.1% | 53.9% | 44.7% | 21.8% |
| Japan | 206.5% | 2025 | 208.1% | 211.2% | 214.4% | 222.3% |
| Jordan | 82.8% | 2025 | 84.6% | 88.3% | 91.9% | 101.1% |
| Kazakhstan | 24.6% | 2025 | 25.2% | 26.4% | 27.6% | 30.6% |
| Kenya | 69.3% | 2025 | 71.6% | 76.1% | 80.7% | 92.0% |
| Kiribati | 8.0% | 2025 | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kuwait | 14.6% | 2025 | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 5.1% |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 36.0% | 2025 | 33.3% | 27.9% | 22.6% | 9.1% |
| Laos | 80.6% | 2025 | 86.0% | 96.9% | 107.7% | 134.9% |
| Latvia | 46.9% | 2025 | 47.7% | 49.4% | 51.1% | 55.4% |
| Lebanon | 139.4% | 2025 | 142.5% | 148.8% | 155.0% | 170.6% |
| Lesotho | 49.1% | 2025 | 50.5% | 53.4% | 56.3% | 63.5% |
| Liberia | 54.9% | 2025 | 58.1% | 64.6% | 71.1% | 87.2% |
| Liechtenstein | 0.5% | 2025 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Lithuania | 39.8% | 2025 | 39.9% | 40.1% | 40.3% | 40.8% |
| Luxembourg | 27.0% | 2025 | 27.8% | 29.3% | 30.8% | 34.6% |
| Macao | 0.0% | 2025 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madagascar | 48.7% | 2025 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 55.1% | 61.5% |
| Malawi | 78.4% | 2025 | 84.8% | 97.5% | 110.2% | 142.1% |
| Malaysia | 70.7% | 2025 | 72.8% | 76.9% | 81.0% | 91.3% |
| Maldives | 125.4% | 2025 | 133.8% | 150.6% | 167.4% | 209.5% |
| Mali | 41.9% | 2025 | 43.7% | 47.3% | 50.9% | 59.9% |
| Malta | 46.8% | 2025 | 46.8% | 46.9% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Marshall Islands | 11.8% | 2025 | 10.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Mauritania | 40.1% | 2025 | 38.2% | 34.5% | 30.7% | 21.4% |
| Mauritius | 86.5% | 2025 | 89.4% | 95.2% | 101.0% | 115.4% |
| Mexico | 61.8% | 2025 | 62.5% | 63.9% | 65.3% | 68.7% |
| Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 8.9% | 2025 | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moldova | 36.6% | 2025 | 36.8% | 37.2% | 37.5% | 38.4% |
| Mongolia | 45.1% | 2025 | 40.4% | 31.0% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| Montenegro | 67.1% | 2025 | 66.2% | 64.3% | 62.4% | 57.7% |
| Morocco | 67.1% | 2025 | 68.2% | 70.5% | 72.7% | 78.4% |
| Mozambique | 102.5% | 2025 | 100.3% | 95.8% | 91.3% | 80.1% |
| Myanmar | 51.9% | 2025 | 54.0% | 58.1% | 62.3% | 72.7% |
| Namibia | 70.2% | 2025 | 73.5% | 80.0% | 86.6% | 103.0% |
| Naoero | 14.6% | 2025 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nepal | 48.1% | 2025 | 51.0% | 56.8% | 62.5% | 77.0% |
| Netherlands | 43.3% | 2025 | 41.6% | 38.3% | 35.0% | 26.7% |
| New Zealand | 54.7% | 2025 | 57.6% | 63.4% | 69.2% | 83.8% |
| Nicaragua | 34.8% | 2025 | 35.3% | 36.2% | 37.2% | 39.5% |
| Niger | 45.4% | 2025 | 47.2% | 50.9% | 54.6% | 63.9% |
| Nigeria | 35.5% | 2025 | 38.0% | 43.1% | 48.2% | 60.8% |
| North Macedonia | 52.5% | 2025 | 54.3% | 57.8% | 61.4% | 70.2% |
| Norway | 45.0% | 2025 | 46.2% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 56.6% |
| Oman | 35.8% | 2025 | 35.5% | 34.9% | 34.3% | 32.9% |
| Pakistan | 72.8% | 2025 | 74.0% | 76.5% | 79.0% | 85.1% |
| Palau | 62.3% | 2025 | 68.3% | 80.3% | 92.3% | 122.3% |
| Panama | 56.6% | 2025 | 59.6% | 65.6% | 71.6% | 86.6% |
| Papua New Guinea | 52.1% | 2025 | 54.7% | 59.9% | 65.2% | 78.2% |
| Paraguay | 38.1% | 2025 | 41.0% | 46.8% | 52.7% | 67.2% |
| Peru | 30.2% | 2025 | 31.2% | 33.2% | 35.2% | 40.1% |
| Philippines | 59.4% | 2025 | 62.4% | 68.3% | 74.3% | 89.2% |
| Poland | 58.8% | 2025 | 59.3% | 60.4% | 61.5% | 64.2% |
| Portugal | 89.9% | 2025 | 85.4% | 76.4% | 67.3% | 44.7% |
| Puerto Rico (US) | 18.0% | 2025 | 13.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Qatar | 41.4% | 2025 | 39.9% | 37.0% | 34.1% | 26.9% |
| Romania | 60.6% | 2025 | 63.4% | 69.0% | 74.6% | 88.6% |
| Russia | 17.2% | 2025 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| Rwanda | 64.6% | 2025 | 67.1% | 72.0% | 77.0% | 89.3% |
| Samoa | 21.2% | 2025 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| San Marino | 60.6% | 2025 | 63.7% | 69.8% | 75.9% | 91.2% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 55.7% | 2025 | 50.9% | 41.4% | 31.9% | 8.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 31.7% | 2025 | 33.4% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 48.4% |
| Senegal | 130.2% | 2025 | 139.9% | 159.4% | 178.9% | 227.5% |
| Serbia | 42.4% | 2025 | 40.5% | 36.8% | 33.1% | 23.9% |
| Seychelles | 51.5% | 2025 | 51.1% | 50.2% | 49.3% | 47.2% |
| Sierra Leone | 45.2% | 2025 | 46.0% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 52.9% |
| Singapore | 171.3% | 2025 | 179.6% | 196.3% | 213.0% | 254.6% |
| Slovakia | 61.6% | 2025 | 62.9% | 65.4% | 67.9% | 74.2% |
| Slovenia | 65.9% | 2025 | 64.8% | 62.7% | 60.5% | 55.1% |
| Solomon Islands | 28.7% | 2025 | 31.2% | 36.3% | 41.3% | 54.0% |
| South Africa | 78.6% | 2025 | 82.4% | 90.0% | 97.6% | 116.6% |
| South Korea | 52.3% | 2025 | 54.1% | 57.7% | 61.3% | 70.2% |
| South Sudan | 62.1% | 2025 | 56.8% | 46.2% | 35.5% | 8.9% |
| Spain | 100.4% | 2025 | 100.7% | 101.3% | 101.8% | 103.3% |
| Sri Lanka | 100.8% | 2024 | 105.4% | 114.6% | 123.8% | 146.7% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 58.4% | 2025 | 58.8% | 59.7% | 60.6% | 62.8% |
| St. Lucia | 77.1% | 2025 | 79.3% | 83.8% | 88.2% | 99.3% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 113.4% | 2025 | 117.8% | 126.7% | 135.5% | 157.6% |
| Sudan | 187.6% | 2025 | 197.2% | 216.3% | 235.4% | 283.2% |
| Suriname | 105.8% | 2025 | 109.3% | 116.3% | 123.3% | 140.7% |
| Sweden | 34.9% | 2025 | 33.9% | 31.8% | 29.7% | 24.4% |
| Switzerland | 39.4% | 2025 | 39.2% | 38.8% | 38.4% | 37.4% |
| Syria | 30.0% | 2010 | 15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taiwan | 22.4% | 2025 | 21.2% | 18.7% | 16.2% | 9.9% |
| Tajikistan | 21.6% | 2025 | 18.8% | 13.2% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Tanzania | 49.7% | 2025 | 50.9% | 53.4% | 55.8% | 62.0% |
| Thailand | 64.7% | 2025 | 67.9% | 74.2% | 80.6% | 96.4% |
| Timor-Leste | 14.3% | 2025 | 15.2% | 17.0% | 18.8% | 23.2% |
| Togo | 63.0% | 2025 | 63.9% | 65.7% | 67.5% | 72.0% |
| Tonga | 27.4% | 2025 | 25.4% | 21.4% | 17.3% | 7.2% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 84.2% | 2025 | 87.7% | 94.6% | 101.5% | 118.8% |
| Tunisia | 81.3% | 2025 | 83.9% | 89.2% | 94.5% | 107.7% |
| Turkmenistan | 3.8% | 2025 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tuvalu | 3.6% | 2025 | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Türkiye | 23.5% | 2025 | 23.1% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 19.7% |
| Uganda | 54.2% | 2025 | 56.9% | 62.4% | 67.8% | 81.5% |
| Ukraine | 108.7% | 2025 | 112.1% | 118.9% | 125.8% | 142.9% |
| United Arab Emirates | 34.3% | 2025 | 36.2% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 53.4% |
| United Kingdom | 102.3% | 2025 | 104.3% | 108.4% | 112.4% | 122.6% |
| United States | 123.9% | 2025 | 126.0% | 130.2% | 134.3% | 144.8% |
| Uruguay | 65.7% | 2025 | 66.8% | 69.1% | 71.4% | 77.0% |
| Uzbekistan | 28.6% | 2025 | 30.8% | 35.3% | 39.8% | 51.1% |
| Vanuatu | 40.9% | 2025 | 40.7% | 40.4% | 40.1% | 39.2% |
| Venezuela | 308.7% | 2025 | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Vietnam | 30.3% | 2025 | 28.3% | 24.2% | 20.2% | 10.1% |
| Zambia | 86.0% | 2025 | 91.0% | 101.1% | 111.2% | 136.5% |
| Zimbabwe | 43.8% | 2025 | 46.6% | 52.3% | 57.9% | 72.0% |
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Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
