debt · indicator
General government gross debt as a share of GDP.
Global · 2026
Baseline · 2027
How it’s forecast
Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Lower readings are generally healthier for this metric.
Trajectory
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 8.0% | 2025 | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Albania | 51.5% | 2026 | 49.0% | 43.9% | 38.8% | 26.2% |
| Algeria | 59.2% | 2026 | 62.2% | 68.1% | 74.0% | 88.8% |
| Andorra | 28.0% | 2026 | 26.9% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 16.7% |
| Angola | 51.6% | 2026 | 47.6% | 39.7% | 31.8% | 12.0% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 66.5% | 2026 | 63.9% | 58.6% | 53.3% | 40.1% |
| Argentina | 70.4% | 2026 | 71.7% | 74.3% | 77.0% | 83.5% |
| Armenia | 50.6% | 2026 | 49.4% | 46.9% | 44.4% | 38.2% |
| Aruba | 60.3% | 2026 | 58.2% | 54.0% | 49.8% | 39.3% |
| Australia | 50.6% | 2026 | 51.5% | 53.2% | 55.0% | 59.4% |
| Austria | 82.1% | 2026 | 82.6% | 83.7% | 84.8% | 87.5% |
| Azerbaijan | 20.0% | 2026 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Bahamas, The | 71.9% | 2026 | 73.9% | 77.8% | 81.7% | 91.4% |
| Bahrain | 152.4% | 2026 | 159.6% | 173.9% | 188.2% | 223.9% |
| Bangladesh | 41.8% | 2026 | 43.4% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 58.2% |
| Barbados | 89.5% | 2026 | 85.9% | 78.7% | 71.6% | 53.7% |
| Belarus | 33.1% | 2026 | 31.2% | 27.4% | 23.6% | 14.1% |
| Belgium | 109.2% | 2026 | 109.8% | 111.1% | 112.3% | 115.4% |
| Belize | 63.2% | 2026 | 60.8% | 55.9% | 51.1% | 39.0% |
| Benin | 57.2% | 2026 | 59.8% | 64.9% | 70.1% | 83.0% |
| Bhutan | 120.3% | 2026 | 121.4% | 123.7% | 125.9% | 131.6% |
| Bolivia | 102.7% | 2026 | 109.0% | 121.5% | 134.1% | 165.5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 30.8% | 2026 | 29.9% | 28.1% | 26.3% | 21.8% |
| Botswana | 47.0% | 2026 | 49.6% | 54.9% | 60.1% | 73.3% |
| Brazil | 96.5% | 2026 | 97.4% | 99.1% | 100.8% | 105.1% |
| Brunei | 1.5% | 2026 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Bulgaria | 28.2% | 2026 | 28.9% | 30.4% | 31.9% | 35.6% |
| Burkina Faso | 48.8% | 2026 | 50.9% | 55.2% | 59.5% | 70.1% |
| Burundi | 37.0% | 2026 | 35.7% | 33.0% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| Cabo Verde | 95.9% | 2026 | 93.9% | 89.8% | 85.8% | 75.6% |
| Cambodia | 27.1% | 2026 | 27.7% | 28.9% | 30.1% | 33.2% |
| Cameroon | 39.3% | 2026 | 39.6% | 40.1% | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| Canada | 110.7% | 2026 | 113.0% | 117.7% | 122.4% | 134.2% |
| Central African Republic | 64.0% | 2026 | 66.2% | 70.6% | 75.0% | 86.1% |
| Chad | 29.9% | 2026 | 28.8% | 26.6% | 24.5% | 19.0% |
| Chile | 42.5% | 2026 | 44.7% | 49.2% | 53.7% | 65.0% |
| China | 106.9% | 2026 | 112.8% | 124.7% | 136.6% | 166.3% |
| Colombia | 60.9% | 2026 | 62.0% | 64.1% | 66.3% | 71.7% |
| Comoros | 32.4% | 2026 | 34.0% | 37.1% | 40.3% | 48.1% |
| Congo | 91.3% | 2026 | 93.1% | 96.8% | 100.5% | 109.7% |
| Costa Rica | 61.1% | 2026 | 62.2% | 64.3% | 66.5% | 71.8% |
| Croatia | 56.5% | 2026 | 53.8% | 48.3% | 42.9% | 29.3% |
| Cyprus | 50.9% | 2026 | 44.7% | 32.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Czechia | 46.4% | 2026 | 48.2% | 51.7% | 55.2% | 64.0% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 55.1% | 2026 | 58.1% | 64.2% | 70.2% | 85.3% |
| DR Congo | 24.6% | 2026 | 26.2% | 29.4% | 32.7% | 40.7% |
| Denmark | 27.4% | 2026 | 25.7% | 22.4% | 19.1% | 10.8% |
| Djibouti | 29.6% | 2026 | 27.6% | 23.6% | 19.6% | 9.6% |
| Dominica | 98.3% | 2026 | 99.8% | 102.7% | 105.6% | 112.8% |
| Dominican Republic | 58.3% | 2026 | 59.1% | 60.6% | 62.1% | 65.9% |
| Ecuador | 54.4% | 2025 | 55.4% | 57.3% | 59.3% | 64.1% |
| Egypt | 87.0% | 2026 | 86.9% | 86.6% | 86.3% | 85.6% |
| El Salvador | 84.5% | 2026 | 85.4% | 87.2% | 89.0% | 93.6% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 39.1% | 2026 | 38.8% | 38.2% | 37.5% | 36.0% |
| Eritrea | 260.4% | 2019 | 272.0% | 295.2% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Estonia | 27.8% | 2026 | 29.9% | 34.2% | 38.5% | 49.1% |
| Eswatini | 50.0% | 2026 | 52.7% | 58.0% | 63.3% | 76.6% |
| Ethiopia | 40.4% | 2026 | 38.0% | 33.2% | 28.3% | 16.3% |
| Fiji | 82.5% | 2026 | 87.3% | 96.8% | 106.3% | 130.2% |
| Finland | 93.1% | 2026 | 96.1% | 102.2% | 108.2% | 123.3% |
| France | 118.4% | 2026 | 120.6% | 124.9% | 129.2% | 140.0% |
| Gabon | 86.1% | 2026 | 88.1% | 92.2% | 96.3% | 106.5% |
| Gambia, The | 68.3% | 2026 | 66.6% | 63.1% | 59.7% | 51.1% |
| Georgia | 35.1% | 2026 | 34.2% | 32.3% | 30.4% | 25.7% |
| Germany | 64.6% | 2026 | 64.7% | 64.9% | 65.1% | 65.6% |
| Ghana | 53.0% | 2026 | 52.5% | 51.4% | 50.4% | 47.8% |
| Greece | 136.9% | 2026 | 130.8% | 118.5% | 106.2% | 75.6% |
| Grenada | 69.0% | 2026 | 69.1% | 69.4% | 69.6% | 70.2% |
| Guatemala | 27.6% | 2026 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 28.0% | 28.4% |
| Guinea | 44.7% | 2026 | 45.6% | 47.5% | 49.3% | 53.9% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 73.6% | 2026 | 76.0% | 80.9% | 85.8% | 98.0% |
| Guyana | 29.2% | 2026 | 27.7% | 24.8% | 21.9% | 14.6% |
| Haiti | 10.7% | 2026 | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Honduras | 43.8% | 2026 | 43.6% | 43.1% | 42.7% | 41.6% |
| Hong Kong | 14.1% | 2026 | 15.7% | 19.0% | 22.3% | 30.5% |
| Hungary | 77.9% | 2026 | 78.6% | 80.1% | 81.6% | 85.3% |
| Iceland | 53.6% | 2026 | 51.9% | 48.6% | 45.2% | 36.9% |
| India | 83.4% | 2026 | 84.8% | 87.5% | 90.2% | 96.9% |
| Indonesia | 41.5% | 2026 | 42.9% | 45.7% | 48.5% | 55.4% |
| Iran | 37.3% | 2026 | 36.0% | 33.5% | 31.0% | 24.7% |
| Iraq | 61.7% | 2026 | 61.9% | 62.2% | 62.6% | 63.5% |
| Ireland | 31.6% | 2026 | 27.7% | 19.9% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Israel | 69.8% | 2026 | 70.7% | 72.6% | 74.5% | 79.1% |
| Italy | 138.4% | 2026 | 138.4% | 138.4% | 138.3% | 138.3% |
| Jamaica | 65.8% | 2026 | 61.8% | 53.9% | 46.0% | 26.1% |
| Japan | 204.4% | 2026 | 204.7% | 205.3% | 206.0% | 207.5% |
| Jordan | 81.8% | 2026 | 83.6% | 87.1% | 90.7% | 99.5% |
| Kazakhstan | 24.9% | 2026 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 27.5% | 30.1% |
| Kenya | 71.6% | 2026 | 73.5% | 77.2% | 80.9% | 90.2% |
| Kiribati | 7.7% | 2026 | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kuwait | 22.3% | 2026 | 22.1% | 21.6% | 21.2% | 20.1% |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 37.4% | 2026 | 34.6% | 29.0% | 23.4% | 9.4% |
| Laos | 74.6% | 2026 | 77.9% | 84.6% | 91.2% | 107.8% |
| Latvia | 47.4% | 2026 | 48.4% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 57.4% |
| Lebanon | 139.4% | 2025 | 142.5% | 148.8% | 155.0% | 170.6% |
| Lesotho | 49.0% | 2026 | 49.5% | 50.4% | 51.3% | 53.7% |
| Liberia | 53.8% | 2026 | 56.0% | 60.5% | 64.9% | 76.1% |
| Liechtenstein | 0.5% | 2026 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Lithuania | 45.1% | 2026 | 45.6% | 46.6% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Luxembourg | 28.0% | 2026 | 28.7% | 30.2% | 31.6% | 35.3% |
| Macao | 0.0% | 2026 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madagascar | 49.3% | 2026 | 50.3% | 52.3% | 54.3% | 59.2% |
| Malawi | 74.5% | 2026 | 80.0% | 91.1% | 102.2% | 129.9% |
| Malaysia | 69.5% | 2026 | 71.4% | 75.1% | 78.8% | 88.1% |
| Maldives | 129.4% | 2026 | 136.3% | 150.2% | 164.0% | 198.6% |
| Mali | 40.8% | 2026 | 42.2% | 45.0% | 47.8% | 54.8% |
| Malta | 47.3% | 2026 | 47.8% | 48.8% | 49.8% | 52.3% |
| Marshall Islands | 16.7% | 2026 | 15.2% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| Mauritania | 37.1% | 2026 | 34.7% | 30.0% | 25.2% | 13.3% |
| Mauritius | 86.5% | 2026 | 88.8% | 93.4% | 98.0% | 109.5% |
| Mexico | 62.7% | 2026 | 63.8% | 65.9% | 68.0% | 73.3% |
| Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 7.5% | 2026 | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moldova | 39.3% | 2026 | 40.0% | 41.5% | 42.9% | 46.5% |
| Mongolia | 43.7% | 2026 | 38.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| Montenegro | 62.4% | 2026 | 60.4% | 56.3% | 52.2% | 42.0% |
| Morocco | 65.8% | 2026 | 66.6% | 68.1% | 69.6% | 73.3% |
| Mozambique | 106.1% | 2026 | 105.3% | 103.8% | 102.3% | 98.4% |
| Myanmar | 51.9% | 2026 | 53.4% | 56.3% | 59.3% | 66.7% |
| Namibia | 70.5% | 2026 | 73.3% | 78.9% | 84.5% | 98.6% |
| Nauru | 12.7% | 2026 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nepal | 49.6% | 2026 | 52.2% | 57.3% | 62.4% | 75.2% |
| Netherlands | 44.1% | 2026 | 42.8% | 40.3% | 37.7% | 31.4% |
| New Zealand | 56.7% | 2026 | 59.9% | 66.3% | 72.6% | 88.6% |
| Nicaragua | 33.2% | 2026 | 32.6% | 31.4% | 30.2% | 27.3% |
| Niger | 45.5% | 2026 | 46.7% | 49.1% | 51.5% | 57.6% |
| Nigeria | 32.3% | 2026 | 34.5% | 38.8% | 43.2% | 54.1% |
| North Macedonia | 53.1% | 2026 | 54.7% | 58.0% | 61.2% | 69.3% |
| Norway | 42.9% | 2026 | 43.9% | 45.8% | 47.8% | 52.6% |
| Oman | 32.7% | 2026 | 30.7% | 26.8% | 22.8% | 13.0% |
| Pakistan | 70.1% | 2026 | 70.5% | 71.4% | 72.2% | 74.4% |
| Palau | 56.7% | 2026 | 61.2% | 70.3% | 79.4% | 102.1% |
| Panama | 57.7% | 2026 | 60.1% | 65.0% | 69.9% | 82.1% |
| Papua New Guinea | 49.2% | 2026 | 51.3% | 55.5% | 59.6% | 70.1% |
| Paraguay | 37.8% | 2026 | 40.1% | 44.7% | 49.4% | 61.0% |
| Peru | 30.0% | 2026 | 30.6% | 31.8% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| Philippines | 60.2% | 2026 | 63.0% | 68.7% | 74.4% | 88.6% |
| Poland | 65.7% | 2026 | 67.1% | 70.0% | 72.8% | 80.0% |
| Portugal | 85.6% | 2026 | 80.6% | 70.7% | 60.8% | 35.9% |
| Puerto Rico (US) | 18.8% | 2026 | 13.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Qatar | 43.3% | 2026 | 41.1% | 36.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
| Romania | 61.9% | 2026 | 65.0% | 71.1% | 77.2% | 92.5% |
| Russia | 19.1% | 2026 | 19.5% | 20.2% | 20.9% | 22.8% |
| Rwanda | 66.8% | 2026 | 68.8% | 72.7% | 76.6% | 86.4% |
| Samoa | 17.1% | 2026 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Marino | 77.3% | 2026 | 78.7% | 81.6% | 84.5% | 91.6% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 50.4% | 2026 | 45.1% | 34.5% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 32.1% | 2026 | 33.6% | 36.7% | 39.8% | 47.5% |
| Senegal | 132.3% | 2026 | 141.2% | 159.0% | 176.8% | 221.2% |
| Serbia | 42.6% | 2026 | 41.2% | 38.4% | 35.6% | 28.6% |
| Seychelles | 55.0% | 2026 | 54.7% | 54.0% | 53.3% | 51.7% |
| Sierra Leone | 44.3% | 2026 | 44.5% | 44.9% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| Singapore | 171.9% | 2026 | 179.7% | 195.4% | 211.0% | 250.1% |
| Slovakia | 63.0% | 2026 | 64.4% | 67.3% | 70.2% | 77.5% |
| Slovenia | 65.2% | 2026 | 64.2% | 62.3% | 60.4% | 55.6% |
| Solomon Islands | 29.9% | 2026 | 32.7% | 38.4% | 44.1% | 58.2% |
| South Africa | 78.9% | 2026 | 82.4% | 89.4% | 96.4% | 113.9% |
| South Korea | 54.4% | 2026 | 56.3% | 60.1% | 63.9% | 73.4% |
| South Sudan | 57.3% | 2026 | 55.7% | 52.6% | 49.4% | 41.5% |
| Spain | 98.2% | 2026 | 97.9% | 97.3% | 96.7% | 95.2% |
| Sri Lanka | 100.8% | 2024 | 105.4% | 114.6% | 123.8% | 146.7% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 64.0% | 2026 | 64.3% | 65.0% | 65.7% | 67.5% |
| St. Lucia | 77.5% | 2026 | 79.2% | 82.7% | 86.1% | 94.7% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 120.1% | 2026 | 126.0% | 137.7% | 149.4% | 178.7% |
| Sudan | 169.1% | 2026 | 170.3% | 172.7% | 175.1% | 181.0% |
| Suriname | 87.1% | 2026 | 88.7% | 91.8% | 94.9% | 102.7% |
| Sweden | 36.7% | 2026 | 36.0% | 34.6% | 33.2% | 29.6% |
| Switzerland | 38.5% | 2026 | 38.3% | 37.9% | 37.6% | 36.6% |
| Syria | 30.0% | 2010 | 15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taiwan | 27.6% | 2026 | 26.5% | 24.3% | 22.1% | 16.7% |
| Tajikistan | 21.9% | 2026 | 18.5% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanzania | 48.7% | 2026 | 49.9% | 52.3% | 54.8% | 60.8% |
| Thailand | 66.8% | 2026 | 70.0% | 76.5% | 83.0% | 99.2% |
| Timor-Leste | 14.9% | 2026 | 15.8% | 17.5% | 19.2% | 23.5% |
| Togo | 64.7% | 2026 | 65.7% | 67.7% | 69.8% | 74.9% |
| Tonga | 34.4% | 2026 | 32.7% | 29.2% | 25.8% | 17.1% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 84.1% | 2026 | 87.1% | 93.2% | 99.2% | 114.3% |
| Tunisia | 84.9% | 2026 | 86.9% | 91.0% | 95.0% | 105.1% |
| Turkmenistan | 3.7% | 2026 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tuvalu | 3.2% | 2026 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Türkiye | 25.5% | 2026 | 24.7% | 23.2% | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| Uganda | 55.0% | 2026 | 57.5% | 62.4% | 67.3% | 79.6% |
| Ukraine | 122.6% | 2026 | 129.2% | 142.3% | 155.4% | 188.3% |
| United Arab Emirates | 31.4% | 2026 | 32.8% | 35.6% | 38.5% | 45.6% |
| United Kingdom | 103.6% | 2026 | 105.6% | 109.5% | 113.5% | 123.3% |
| United States | 125.8% | 2026 | 127.7% | 131.5% | 135.2% | 144.7% |
| Uruguay | 66.8% | 2026 | 67.9% | 70.0% | 72.1% | 77.3% |
| Uzbekistan | 27.5% | 2026 | 28.7% | 31.2% | 33.7% | 39.8% |
| Vanuatu | 43.2% | 2026 | 43.0% | 42.5% | 42.0% | 40.8% |
| Venezuela | 308.7% | 2025 | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Vietnam | 29.8% | 2026 | 27.9% | 24.0% | 20.1% | 10.4% |
| Zambia | 86.0% | 2025 | 91.0% | 101.1% | 111.2% | 136.5% |
| Zimbabwe | 42.3% | 2026 | 43.4% | 45.6% | 47.8% | 53.4% |
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Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
