debt · indicator
General government gross debt as a share of GDP.
Global · 2025
Baseline · 2026
How it’s forecast
Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Lower readings are generally healthier for this metric.
Trajectory
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
Realized track record: across 213 forecasts published in advance and since matured (through 2026), the typical miss is ±3.93 (7% MAPE) · reliability leaderboard →. A track record, not a guarantee.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 7.6% | 2025 | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% |
| Albania | 53.8% | 2025 | 51.8% | 47.7% | 43.6% | 33.4% |
| Algeria | 52.1% | 2025 | 55.6% | 62.5% | 69.4% | 86.7% |
| Andorra | 30.3% | 2025 | 29.6% | 28.3% | 26.9% | 23.5% |
| Angola | 52.9% | 2025 | 50.8% | 46.5% | 42.3% | 31.6% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 70.2% | 2025 | 68.5% | 65.0% | 61.5% | 52.8% |
| Argentina | 80.1% | 2025 | 84.6% | 93.5% | 102.5% | 124.8% |
| Armenia | 46.9% | 2025 | 46.0% | 44.3% | 42.6% | 38.3% |
| Aruba | 64.8% | 2025 | 64.8% | 64.7% | 64.6% | 64.5% |
| Australia | 51.9% | 2025 | 53.2% | 55.9% | 58.6% | 65.2% |
| Austria | 81.4% | 2025 | 81.6% | 81.9% | 82.2% | 82.9% |
| Azerbaijan | 20.1% | 2025 | 20.2% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| Bahamas, The | 71.7% | 2025 | 74.7% | 80.6% | 86.5% | 101.3% |
| Bahrain | 144.3% | 2025 | 151.3% | 165.3% | 179.2% | 214.2% |
| Bangladesh | 42.0% | 2025 | 43.7% | 47.2% | 50.7% | 59.4% |
| Barbados | 96.2% | 2025 | 92.8% | 86.1% | 79.3% | 62.4% |
| Belarus | 31.3% | 2025 | 29.2% | 25.1% | 20.9% | 10.6% |
| Belgium | 107.9% | 2025 | 108.2% | 108.9% | 109.6% | 111.4% |
| Belize | 66.9% | 2025 | 65.4% | 62.4% | 59.4% | 51.9% |
| Benin | 59.3% | 2025 | 62.5% | 68.9% | 75.3% | 91.3% |
| Bhutan | 102.6% | 2025 | 103.6% | 105.6% | 107.6% | 112.5% |
| Bolivia | 83.3% | 2025 | 88.9% | 100.2% | 111.4% | 139.5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 28.8% | 2025 | 27.3% | 24.2% | 21.1% | 13.3% |
| Botswana | 34.0% | 2025 | 35.2% | 37.5% | 39.8% | 45.5% |
| Brazil | 93.3% | 2025 | 94.2% | 96.1% | 97.9% | 102.5% |
| Brunei | 1.6% | 2025 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Bulgaria | 29.9% | 2025 | 30.3% | 31.0% | 31.7% | 33.5% |
| Burkina Faso | 53.2% | 2025 | 56.2% | 62.3% | 68.4% | 83.6% |
| Burundi | 42.0% | 2025 | 42.4% | 43.3% | 44.2% | 46.5% |
| Cabo Verde | 115.4% | 2025 | 115.7% | 116.3% | 116.9% | 118.3% |
| Cambodia | 25.5% | 2025 | 26.1% | 27.2% | 28.3% | 31.1% |
| Cameroon | 40.5% | 2025 | 41.5% | 43.5% | 45.5% | 50.5% |
| Canada | 113.6% | 2025 | 116.2% | 121.4% | 126.6% | 139.6% |
| Central African Republic | 42.6% | 2025 | 43.4% | 45.1% | 46.8% | 51.0% |
| Chad | 33.3% | 2025 | 32.4% | 30.7% | 29.0% | 24.6% |
| Chile | 41.5% | 2025 | 44.0% | 49.0% | 54.0% | 66.4% |
| China | 98.6% | 2025 | 104.0% | 114.8% | 125.6% | 152.6% |
| Colombia | 59.9% | 2025 | 61.2% | 63.9% | 66.5% | 73.2% |
| Comoros | 30.5% | 2025 | 32.5% | 36.4% | 40.3% | 50.0% |
| Congo | 100.4% | 2025 | 102.3% | 106.2% | 110.0% | 119.7% |
| Costa Rica | 60.4% | 2025 | 62.2% | 65.7% | 69.2% | 77.9% |
| Croatia | 56.3% | 2025 | 53.8% | 48.8% | 43.8% | 31.2% |
| Cyprus | 55.0% | 2025 | 49.5% | 38.6% | 27.7% | 0.3% |
| Czechia | 44.2% | 2025 | 45.6% | 48.4% | 51.3% | 58.3% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 57.1% | 2025 | 60.7% | 67.8% | 75.0% | 92.8% |
| DR Congo | 20.4% | 2025 | 21.7% | 24.3% | 26.9% | 33.4% |
| Denmark | 27.4% | 2025 | 25.9% | 22.9% | 19.9% | 12.3% |
| Djibouti | 31.3% | 2025 | 29.5% | 25.9% | 22.2% | 13.2% |
| Dominica | 99.9% | 2025 | 102.9% | 108.8% | 114.7% | 129.4% |
| Dominican Republic | 59.0% | 2025 | 60.4% | 63.2% | 66.1% | 73.2% |
| Ecuador | 54.5% | 2025 | 55.5% | 57.4% | 59.4% | 64.3% |
| Egypt | 86.8% | 2025 | 86.7% | 86.4% | 86.1% | 85.4% |
| El Salvador | 87.6% | 2025 | 89.0% | 91.8% | 94.6% | 101.6% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 35.4% | 2025 | 34.7% | 33.3% | 31.8% | 28.2% |
| Eritrea | 260.4% | 2019 | 272.0% | 295.2% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Estonia | 24.0% | 2025 | 25.9% | 29.7% | 33.4% | 42.9% |
| Eswatini | 44.8% | 2025 | 47.5% | 52.8% | 58.2% | 71.6% |
| Ethiopia | 43.3% | 2025 | 41.2% | 36.9% | 32.7% | 22.1% |
| Fiji | 77.1% | 2025 | 82.4% | 93.0% | 103.5% | 130.0% |
| Finland | 88.4% | 2025 | 90.7% | 95.2% | 99.7% | 111.0% |
| France | 115.5% | 2025 | 117.6% | 121.8% | 126.0% | 136.5% |
| Gabon | 84.2% | 2025 | 85.9% | 89.3% | 92.7% | 101.3% |
| Gambia, The | 73.7% | 2025 | 72.6% | 70.5% | 68.4% | 63.2% |
| Georgia | 34.3% | 2025 | 33.8% | 32.8% | 31.8% | 29.4% |
| Germany | 62.7% | 2025 | 62.5% | 62.0% | 61.5% | 60.2% |
| Ghana | 48.8% | 2025 | 50.1% | 52.6% | 55.2% | 61.6% |
| Greece | 146.6% | 2025 | 142.5% | 134.4% | 126.3% | 106.0% |
| Grenada | 69.4% | 2025 | 69.3% | 69.1% | 68.9% | 68.5% |
| Guatemala | 26.7% | 2025 | 26.9% | 27.3% | 27.8% | 28.9% |
| Guinea | 36.3% | 2025 | 37.2% | 38.9% | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 75.1% | 2025 | 78.2% | 84.3% | 90.5% | 105.9% |
| Guyana | 28.9% | 2025 | 27.5% | 24.8% | 22.0% | 15.1% |
| Haiti | 12.3% | 2025 | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 4.6% |
| Honduras | 40.3% | 2025 | 40.3% | 40.3% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| Hong Kong | 12.1% | 2025 | 13.4% | 16.0% | 18.6% | 25.2% |
| Hungary | 74.6% | 2025 | 75.0% | 75.7% | 76.4% | 78.1% |
| Iceland | 56.7% | 2025 | 54.9% | 51.3% | 47.7% | 38.7% |
| India | 84.3% | 2025 | 86.2% | 90.0% | 93.8% | 103.4% |
| Indonesia | 40.9% | 2025 | 42.5% | 45.8% | 49.0% | 57.1% |
| Iran | 35.6% | 2025 | 33.9% | 30.6% | 27.3% | 19.0% |
| Iraq | 52.8% | 2025 | 51.7% | 49.6% | 47.5% | 42.1% |
| Ireland | 34.8% | 2025 | 30.7% | 22.6% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Israel | 67.9% | 2025 | 68.6% | 70.0% | 71.4% | 74.9% |
| Italy | 137.1% | 2025 | 137.3% | 137.8% | 138.2% | 139.3% |
| Jamaica | 66.0% | 2025 | 61.3% | 51.9% | 42.6% | 19.2% |
| Japan | 204.8% | 2025 | 206.2% | 209.1% | 212.0% | 219.3% |
| Jordan | 83.6% | 2025 | 85.5% | 89.2% | 92.9% | 102.3% |
| Kazakhstan | 24.3% | 2025 | 24.9% | 26.0% | 27.2% | 30.1% |
| Kenya | 71.3% | 2025 | 73.7% | 78.4% | 83.2% | 95.1% |
| Kiribati | 8.0% | 2025 | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kuwait | 14.6% | 2025 | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 5.1% |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 39.4% | 2025 | 36.9% | 31.9% | 26.9% | 14.4% |
| Laos | 88.8% | 2025 | 94.9% | 107.0% | 119.1% | 149.4% |
| Latvia | 46.9% | 2025 | 47.7% | 49.4% | 51.1% | 55.4% |
| Lebanon | 139.4% | 2025 | 142.5% | 148.6% | 154.8% | 170.1% |
| Lesotho | 49.4% | 2025 | 50.8% | 53.7% | 56.6% | 63.8% |
| Liberia | 55.1% | 2025 | 58.3% | 64.8% | 71.3% | 87.5% |
| Libya | 153.8% | 2025 | 156.7% | 162.6% | 168.5% | 183.1% |
| Liechtenstein | 0.5% | 2025 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Lithuania | 39.5% | 2025 | 39.6% | 39.8% | 39.9% | 40.4% |
| Luxembourg | 26.5% | 2025 | 27.2% | 28.7% | 30.1% | 33.8% |
| Macao | 0.0% | 2025 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madagascar | 47.7% | 2025 | 48.9% | 51.4% | 53.8% | 60.0% |
| Malawi | 96.6% | 2025 | 103.8% | 118.3% | 132.8% | 169.1% |
| Malaysia | 70.5% | 2025 | 72.5% | 76.6% | 80.7% | 90.9% |
| Maldives | 129.4% | 2025 | 138.1% | 155.4% | 172.7% | 216.0% |
| Mali | 40.3% | 2025 | 42.0% | 45.4% | 48.9% | 57.4% |
| Malta | 46.2% | 2025 | 46.2% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| Marshall Islands | 8.8% | 2025 | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mauritania | 40.4% | 2025 | 38.5% | 34.8% | 31.1% | 21.8% |
| Mauritius | 86.8% | 2025 | 89.7% | 95.5% | 101.4% | 116.0% |
| Mexico | 61.7% | 2025 | 62.4% | 63.7% | 65.1% | 68.5% |
| Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 8.8% | 2025 | 7.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moldova | 39.2% | 2025 | 39.5% | 40.2% | 40.8% | 42.5% |
| Mongolia | 45.0% | 2025 | 40.3% | 30.9% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| Montenegro | 63.5% | 2025 | 62.6% | 60.7% | 58.8% | 54.0% |
| Morocco | 66.6% | 2025 | 67.7% | 69.8% | 71.9% | 77.2% |
| Mozambique | 90.3% | 2025 | 87.3% | 81.3% | 75.3% | 60.4% |
| Myanmar | 51.9% | 2025 | 54.0% | 58.1% | 62.3% | 72.7% |
| Namibia | 67.5% | 2025 | 70.6% | 76.7% | 82.8% | 98.0% |
| Naoero | 12.2% | 2025 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nepal | 47.4% | 2025 | 50.2% | 55.9% | 61.6% | 75.7% |
| Netherlands | 44.7% | 2025 | 43.1% | 40.0% | 36.8% | 29.0% |
| New Zealand | 54.7% | 2025 | 57.6% | 63.4% | 69.2% | 83.8% |
| Nicaragua | 34.6% | 2025 | 35.1% | 36.0% | 36.9% | 39.2% |
| Niger | 45.5% | 2025 | 47.4% | 51.1% | 54.8% | 64.1% |
| Nigeria | 36.1% | 2025 | 38.7% | 43.8% | 48.9% | 61.7% |
| North Macedonia | 52.6% | 2025 | 54.4% | 58.1% | 61.7% | 70.9% |
| Norway | 54.0% | 2025 | 55.6% | 58.9% | 62.2% | 70.5% |
| Oman | 34.7% | 2025 | 34.3% | 33.6% | 32.9% | 31.2% |
| Pakistan | 72.8% | 2025 | 74.0% | 76.5% | 79.0% | 85.2% |
| Palau | 52.8% | 2025 | 56.7% | 64.6% | 72.5% | 92.1% |
| Panama | 56.6% | 2025 | 59.6% | 65.6% | 71.6% | 86.6% |
| Papua New Guinea | 51.6% | 2025 | 54.2% | 59.5% | 64.8% | 78.0% |
| Paraguay | 38.2% | 2025 | 41.1% | 47.0% | 52.8% | 67.4% |
| Peru | 30.1% | 2025 | 31.1% | 33.1% | 35.0% | 40.0% |
| Philippines | 59.1% | 2025 | 62.1% | 68.0% | 73.9% | 88.7% |
| Poland | 59.7% | 2025 | 60.3% | 61.4% | 62.6% | 65.5% |
| Portugal | 89.7% | 2025 | 85.2% | 76.1% | 67.1% | 44.4% |
| Puerto Rico (US) | 17.6% | 2025 | 12.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Qatar | 42.5% | 2025 | 41.1% | 38.3% | 35.6% | 28.6% |
| Romania | 60.4% | 2025 | 63.2% | 68.8% | 74.3% | 88.2% |
| Russia | 16.6% | 2025 | 16.8% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| Rwanda | 64.7% | 2025 | 67.2% | 72.2% | 77.1% | 89.5% |
| Samoa | 21.2% | 2025 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| San Marino | 59.8% | 2025 | 62.9% | 69.2% | 75.4% | 91.0% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 59.1% | 2025 | 54.7% | 45.9% | 37.1% | 15.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 31.8% | 2025 | 33.5% | 36.8% | 40.2% | 48.5% |
| Senegal | 127.7% | 2025 | 137.6% | 157.4% | 177.2% | 226.7% |
| Serbia | 42.2% | 2025 | 40.3% | 36.6% | 32.9% | 23.6% |
| Seychelles | 51.2% | 2025 | 50.8% | 49.9% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| Sierra Leone | 51.4% | 2025 | 52.7% | 55.4% | 58.1% | 64.9% |
| Singapore | 165.7% | 2025 | 173.7% | 189.8% | 205.8% | 245.9% |
| Slovakia | 61.4% | 2025 | 62.6% | 65.1% | 67.6% | 73.9% |
| Slovenia | 65.1% | 2025 | 64.0% | 61.7% | 59.4% | 53.7% |
| Solomon Islands | 29.6% | 2025 | 32.2% | 37.4% | 42.6% | 55.6% |
| South Africa | 78.4% | 2025 | 82.2% | 89.8% | 97.4% | 116.3% |
| South Korea | 52.4% | 2025 | 54.2% | 57.8% | 61.4% | 70.4% |
| South Sudan | 64.2% | 2025 | 59.0% | 48.5% | 38.1% | 11.9% |
| Spain | 100.5% | 2025 | 100.8% | 101.4% | 101.9% | 103.4% |
| Sri Lanka | 96.8% | 2025 | 100.6% | 108.2% | 115.9% | 134.9% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 58.7% | 2025 | 59.2% | 60.1% | 61.0% | 63.2% |
| St. Lucia | 76.8% | 2025 | 78.9% | 83.2% | 87.5% | 98.2% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 107.7% | 2025 | 111.8% | 120.0% | 128.2% | 148.8% |
| Sudan | 204.4% | 2025 | 216.5% | 240.7% | 264.9% | 300.0% |
| Suriname | 96.9% | 2025 | 99.6% | 104.9% | 110.2% | 123.5% |
| Sweden | 34.5% | 2025 | 33.4% | 31.2% | 29.0% | 23.4% |
| Switzerland | 40.1% | 2025 | 39.9% | 39.4% | 38.9% | 37.7% |
| Syria | 30.0% | 2010 | 15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taiwan | 23.6% | 2025 | 22.4% | 20.0% | 17.7% | 11.8% |
| Tajikistan | 18.6% | 2025 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Tanzania | 49.8% | 2025 | 51.0% | 53.5% | 56.0% | 62.2% |
| Thailand | 64.7% | 2025 | 67.9% | 74.2% | 80.6% | 96.4% |
| Timor-Leste | 13.3% | 2025 | 14.1% | 15.7% | 17.3% | 21.2% |
| Togo | 64.9% | 2025 | 65.9% | 67.9% | 69.9% | 74.9% |
| Tonga | 26.9% | 2025 | 24.8% | 20.7% | 16.6% | 6.3% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 84.0% | 2025 | 87.4% | 94.2% | 101.0% | 118.1% |
| Tunisia | 81.7% | 2025 | 84.4% | 89.7% | 95.0% | 108.3% |
| Turkmenistan | 3.1% | 2025 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tuvalu | 2.8% | 2025 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Türkiye | 23.7% | 2025 | 23.3% | 22.6% | 21.9% | 20.1% |
| Uganda | 53.2% | 2025 | 55.9% | 61.2% | 66.6% | 79.9% |
| Ukraine | 107.1% | 2025 | 110.4% | 117.1% | 123.7% | 140.4% |
| United Arab Emirates | 33.9% | 2025 | 35.7% | 39.4% | 43.0% | 52.1% |
| United Kingdom | 102.1% | 2025 | 104.1% | 108.1% | 112.1% | 122.1% |
| United States | 124.4% | 2025 | 126.5% | 130.7% | 134.9% | 145.5% |
| Uruguay | 65.6% | 2025 | 66.7% | 69.0% | 71.2% | 76.9% |
| Uzbekistan | 28.6% | 2025 | 30.8% | 35.3% | 39.8% | 51.1% |
| Vanuatu | 36.2% | 2025 | 35.8% | 34.9% | 34.1% | 31.9% |
| Venezuela | 308.7% | 2025 | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| Vietnam | 30.5% | 2025 | 28.5% | 24.5% | 20.4% | 10.4% |
| Zambia | 100.6% | 2025 | 106.7% | 118.9% | 131.0% | 161.5% |
| Zimbabwe | 38.0% | 2025 | 40.5% | 45.5% | 50.5% | 63.0% |
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Government debt uses a linear trend model with a 10-year lookback, 50% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
