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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Briefing · output

Growth: where the data is diverging

244 growth signals are diverging right now; 208 moving against their own trend; 36 sitting far from the global norm — led by United States.

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In short

  • ›United States — GDP is well above the global norm ($30.8T).
  • ›Guyana — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trend ($0.0T).
  • ›South Sudan — Real GDP growth is well above the global norm (41.40%).
  • ›Paraguay — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trend ($7.0K).

Supporting signals

The data behind this note

Ranked across countries with ≥1 M people or ≥$10 bn GDP so micro-territories don't crowd the board.

  • 1United States — GDP is well above the global normpeerGDP$30.8T▲+10.46σ
  • 2Guyana — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.0T▲+48.87%
  • 3South Sudan — Real GDP growth is well above the global normpeerReal GDP growth41.40%▲+8.88σ
  • 4Paraguay — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$7.0K▲+40.99%
  • 5Israel — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.6T▲+22.3%
  • 6Monaco — GDP per capita is well above the global normpeerGDP per capita$288.0K▲+7.73σ
  • 7Mauritania — GDP per capita is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP per capita$2.2K▲+37.18%
  • 8DR Congo — GDP is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumGDP$0.1T▲+34.33%

Generated from current observations and the signal engine. Describes movement in the data — not a forecast or investment advice.