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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment

Sentiment · derived

Sentiment analysis — global economies

Macro sentiment across the world: the global mood, which economies are most supportive vs most stressed, the aspects driving a single country, and how the consumer-confidence survey diverges from the fundamentals. Every reading is DERIVED from real live macro series (growth, inflation, unemployment, debt, external balance) — it is not ingested market or news sentiment, and it is not a forecast. Higher pressure = more stressed; sentiment runs −1 (stressed) to +1 (supportive).

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

Global mood

How the world's macro sentiment reads right now

Aggregated across the 216 covered economies with live macro data — uncovered economies never appear.

Global sentiment
+0.16−1 … +1
Average macro stress
42/ 100
Covered economies
216
Distribution — overall read: balanced
supportive64balanced

Leaderboards

Most supportive vs most stressed economies

Ranked across all 216 covered economies by the derived macro-pressure composite.

Most supportive
Lowest macro stress — risk-on lean
  1. 1St. Martin (French part)MAF+0.90Normal
  2. 2Northern Mariana IslandsMNP+0.90Normal
  3. 3MonacoMCO+0.90Normal

By region

Sentiment by world region

Average derived sentiment across the covered economies in each World-Bank region — most-stressed region first.

RegionEconomiesAvg sentimentReadMost supportiveMost stressed
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan23+0.03WatchbalancedOmanYemen, Rep.
North America3+0.03WatchbalancedBermudaUnited States
Europe & Central Asia57+0.13Watch

By aspect

United States — sentiment across the economy

The composite and the macro dimensions behind it. Open any economy below for its own breakdown.

Composite sentiment · derived
−0.04balancedWatch

Macro stress 52/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2026
By aspect — United States’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.52supportive

Stress 24/100 · as of 2026

InflationWatch

Survey vs fundamentals

United States — how people feel vs what the data says

The observed OECD Consumer Confidence survey (soft) and its divergence from the derived macro fundamentals (hard).

Survey heldledger 4cf0147

United States: consumer confidence is 95.63106 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is mixed.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
95.63

Pick an economy

Open a country sentiment read

Every covered country has a composite + macro dimensions; survey data exists for the ~41 OECD economies, others return an honest not-covered state.

AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAntigua and BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamas, TheBahrain

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3} (add ?include=dimensions,survey,divergence,forecast) · /api/v1/sentiment/countries?codes= · /api/v1/screener/sentiment · API docs

115
cautious32
stressed5
AI read
  • 4Turks and Caicos IslandsTCA+0.74Normal
  • 5ChadTCD+0.68Normal
  • 6TaiwanTWN+0.66Normal
  • Most stressed
    Highest macro stress — risk-off lean
    1. 1Virgin Islands (U.S.)VIR−0.76Stressed
    2. 2SudanSDN−0.58Stressed
    3. 3Yemen, Rep.YEM−0.54Stressed
    4. 4Isle of ManIMN−0.52Stressed
    5. 5BoliviaBOL−0.50Elevated
    6. 6IranIRN−0.50Stressed

    Compare two economies → · Projected movers → · Full macro-stress screener →

    balanced
    Monaco
    Isle of Man
    Latin America & Caribbean41+0.15WatchbalancedSt. Martin (French part)Virgin Islands (U.S.)
    South Asia6+0.17WatchbalancedSri LankaMaldives
    Sub-Saharan Africa48+0.16WatchbalancedChadSudan
    East Asia & Pacific37+0.27WatchbalancedNorthern Mariana IslandsNew Caledonia
    Imported1+0.66NormalsupportiveTaiwanTaiwan
    +0.06balanced

    Stress 47/100 · as of 2026

    LabourWatch
    +0.08balanced

    Stress 46/100 · as of 2026

    Debt / fiscalStressed
    −0.78stressed

    Stress 89/100 · as of 2026

    ExternalStressed
    −0.60stressed

    Stress 80/100 · as of 2026

    Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

    Sentiment trajectory · 1961–2026
    +0.03Deteriorating

    Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

    Span change

    −0.47

    Latest step

    −0.02

    Years

    66

    Confidence

    High

    Outlook · 2027 · projection
    −0.02balancedWatch

    Projected macro stress 51/100

    Change vs now

    +0.02 sentiment

    -1 stress

    GrowthWatch

    Projected 1.97 · stress 36/100

    InflationWatch

    Projected 3.48 · stress 43/100

    LabourWatch

    Projected 4.32 · stress 38/100

    Debt / fiscalStressed

    Projected 127.69 · stress 82/100

    ExternalElevated

    Projected -3.89 · stress 73/100

    Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
    Rank every economy by aspect
    GrowthInflationLabour MarketFiscalTrade

    Full United States sentiment →

    OECD SDMX API

    Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
    MoM ▼−0.473m ▼−1.07YoY ▼−1.05

    Consumer confidence in United States is 95.63 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and falling.

    Soft vs hard divergence

    Derived
    Mixedconf high
    Soft (survey)
    -0.87

    CCI 95.63 · pessimistic

    Hard (macro)
    -0.04

    balanced · pressure 52

    Gap (soft − hard)
    -0.83

    >0 = confidence ahead

    Soft and hard sentiment for United States are MIXED — one side is around its neutral reference, so there is no clear divergence.

    Bangladesh
    Barbados
    Belarus
    Belgium
    Belize
    Benin
    Bermuda
    Bhutan
    Bolivia
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Botswana
    Brazil
    British Virgin Islands
    Brunei
    Bulgaria
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cabo Verde
    Cambodia
    Cameroon
    Canada
    Cayman Islands
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    Channel Islands
    Chile
    China
    Colombia
    Comoros
    Congo
    Costa Rica
    Côte d'Ivoire
    Croatia
    Cuba
    Curacao
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Djibouti
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    DR Congo
    Ecuador
    Egypt
    El Salvador
    Equatorial Guinea
    Eritrea
    Estonia
    Eswatini
    Ethiopia
    Faroe Islands
    Fiji
    Finland
    France
    French Polynesia
    Gabon
    Gambia, The
    Georgia
    Germany
    Ghana
    Gibraltar
    Greece
    Greenland
    Grenada
    Guam
    Guatemala
    Guinea
    Guinea-Bissau
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Hong Kong
    Hungary
    Iceland
    India
    Indonesia
    Iran
    Iraq
    Ireland
    Isle of Man
    Israel
    Italy
    Jamaica
    Japan
    Jordan
    Kazakhstan
    Kenya
    Kiribati
    Kosovo
    Kuwait
    Kyrgyz Republic
    Laos
    Latvia
    Lebanon
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Libya
    Liechtenstein
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Macao
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Mali
    Malta
    Marshall Islands
    Mauritania
    Mauritius
    Mexico
    Micronesia, Fed. Sts.
    Moldova
    Monaco
    Mongolia
    Montenegro
    Morocco
    Mozambique
    Myanmar
    Namibia
    Naoero
    Nepal
    Netherlands
    New Caledonia
    New Zealand
    Nicaragua
    Niger
    Nigeria
    North Korea
    North Macedonia
    Northern Mariana Islands
    Norway
    Oman
    Pakistan
    Palau
    Panama
    Papua New Guinea
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Philippines
    Poland
    Portugal
    Puerto Rico (US)
    Qatar
    Romania
    Russia
    Rwanda
    Samoa
    San Marino
    Sao Tome and Principe
    Saudi Arabia
    Senegal
    Serbia
    Seychelles
    Sierra Leone
    Singapore
    Sint Maarten (Dutch part)
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Solomon Islands
    Somalia, Fed. Rep.
    South Africa
    South Korea
    South Sudan
    Spain
    Sri Lanka
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Martin (French part)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Sudan
    Suriname
    Sweden
    Switzerland
    Syria
    Taiwan
    Tajikistan
    Tanzania
    Thailand
    Timor-Leste
    Togo
    Tonga
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Tunisia
    Türkiye
    Turkmenistan
    Turks and Caicos Islands
    Tuvalu
    Uganda
    Ukraine
    United Arab Emirates
    United Kingdom
    United States
    Uruguay
    Uzbekistan
    Vanuatu
    Venezuela
    Vietnam
    Virgin Islands (U.S.)
    West Bank and Gaza
    Yemen, Rep.
    Zambia
    Zimbabwe