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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Briefing · trade

Trade & external: where the data is diverging

69 trade & external signals are diverging right now; 45 moving against their own trend; 24 sitting far from the global norm — led by Afghanistan.

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In short

Afghanistan — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trend (16.9%).
Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trend (59.6%).
Luxembourg — Exports is well above the global norm (191.5%).
Hong Kong — Imports is well above the global norm (177.7%).

Supporting signals

The data behind this note

1Afghanistan — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports16.9%−8.31%
2Cayman Islands — Exports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumExports59.6%−14.16%
3Luxembourg — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports191.5%+4.55σ
4Hong Kong — Imports is well above the global normpeerImports177.7%+4.42σ
5San Marino — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports186.0%+4.38σ
6Luxembourg — Imports is moving sharply against its own recent trendmomentumImports159.7%−13.74%
7Hong Kong — Exports is well above the global normpeerExports181.8%+4.25σ
8Suriname — Current account is well below the global normpeerCurrent account-44.8%−4.19σ

Generated from current observations and the signal engine. Describes movement in the data — not a forecast or investment advice.