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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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World/Sentiment/Small states

Sentiment

Small states — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.34supportiveNormal

Macro stress 33/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: Moderate
As of 2025
By aspect — Small states’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.70supportive

Stress 15/100 · as of 2025

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1980–2025
+0.41Improving

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

+0.83

Latest step

−0.01

Years

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.42supportiveNormal

Projected macro stress 29/100

Change vs now

+0.08 sentiment

-4 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 4.71 · stress 5/100

InflationNormal

Projected 2.46 · stress 31/100

LabourElevated

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey not covered

No observed survey sentiment is currently held for Small states.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
Not coveredNot covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "SST" (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: An ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series for this country (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

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Inflation
Normal
+0.60supportive

Stress 20/100 · as of 2025

LabourElevated
−0.46cautious

Stress 73/100 · as of 2025

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

46

Confidence

Moderate

AI read

Projected 7.44 · stress 63/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 3/5 drivers (2 without a projection) · Moderate confidence.
AI read
Not covered
Not covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "SST" (the soft signal; OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: Both an ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series (OECD covers ~41 economies) AND a derivable macro-pressure sentiment (live growth/inflation/labour/fiscal/external) for this country.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/SST/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs