Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Aruba: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 17/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.54 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.66, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.68) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±2.8415 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Aruba: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.12 | 30 | -4.09 | 10.18 – 18.06 |
| 2028 | 19.16 | 30 | -12.37 | 11.81 – 26.52 |
| 2030 | 24.21 | 30 | -16.5 | 13.96 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -27.58 | 13.45 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 88.67 | 107.01 | 72.78 | 84.64 – 92.71 |
| 2027 | 94.08 | 125.84 | 66.56 | 85.03 – 103.14 |
| 2029 | 99.49 | 140.5 | 63.96 | 85.68 – 113.31 |
| 2034 | 113.02 | 150 | 62.76 | 86.65 – 139.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.6bn | 3.8bn | 4.5bn – 4.8bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 6.9bn | 3.9bn | 4.8bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 4bn | 5.1bn – 6.6bn |
| 2035 | 7.4bn | 10.3bn | 4.8bn | 5.8bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.54 | 12 | -10 | 0.69 – 12 |
| 2028 | 7.28 | 12 | -10 | -3.02 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.03 | 12 | -10 | -5.46 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.88 | 12 | -10 | -9.86 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.6k | 51.2k | 35.2k | 40.9k – 44.3k |
| 2028 | 47.9k | 62.7k | 35.1k | 43.9k – 52k |
| 2030 | 53.2k | 72.3k | 36.6k | 46.7k – 59.7k |
| 2035 | 66.4k | 93.4k | 43k | 52.6k – 80.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.77 | 95.5 | 29.3 | 59 – 70.53 |
| 2028 | 64.7 | 117.93 | 3.28 | 53.4 – 75.99 |
| 2030 | 64.63 | 133.35 | 0 | 48.88 – 80.37 |
| 2035 | 64.45 | 161.64 | 0 | 39.19 – 89.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.17(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79.47 | 87.37 | 71.58 | 76.99 – 81.95 |
| 2027 | 82.08 | 95.75 | 68.4 | 76 – 88.15 |
| 2029 | 84.68 | 102.34 | 67.03 | 75.07 – 94.3 |
| 2034 | 91.19 | 116.16 | 66.23 | 72.28 – 110.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.26(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.37 | 5.11 | -5 | -1.61 – 0.86 |
| 2028 | -2.61 | 6.89 | -5 | -4.85 – -0.38 |
| 2030 | -4.85 | 7.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.35 | -5 | -5 – -0.35 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 108.8k | 113.9k | 104k | 105.4k – 112.1k |
| 2028 | 109.6k | 114.8k | 104.8k | 101.5k – 117.7k |
| 2030 | 110.5k | 115.7k | 105.7k | 98k – 123.1k |
| 2035 | 112.7k | 118k | 107.7k | 89.3k – 136.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.8bn | 1.7bn | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 4.3bn | 2.3bn | 2.6bn – 4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.77 | 8.42 | 3.11 | 5.27 – 6.27 |
| 2026 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.72 – 6.68 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 11.61 | 0 | 4.31 – 7.03 |
| 2033 | 5.64 | 14.04 | 0 | 3.45 – 7.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.8bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 2.9bn – 3.7bn |
| 2035 | 4.4bn | 5.5bn | 3.3bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 6.49 | 0 | 2.36 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 0.85 | 6.98 | 0 | 0 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.92 | 0 | 0 – 1.29 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 – 1.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ABW · API docs
