Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Aruba: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.37 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±6.2958 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Aruba: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.92 | 27.34 | -9.5 | 5.02 – 12.82 |
| 2029 | 13.76 | 30 | -18.15 | 6.59 – 20.93 |
| 2031 | 18.6 | 30 | -22.59 | 8.71 – 28.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -28.26 | 13.31 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 88.67 | 107.01 | 72.78 | 84.64 – 92.71 |
| 2027 | 94.08 | 125.84 | 66.56 | 85.03 – 103.14 |
| 2029 | 99.49 | 140.5 | 63.96 | 85.68 – 113.31 |
| 2034 | 113.02 | 150 | 62.76 | 86.65 – 139.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.9bn | 5.9bn | 4.1bn | 4.7bn – 5.1bn |
| 2029 | 5.5bn | 7.1bn | 4.1bn | 5.1bn – 6bn |
| 2031 | 6.1bn | 8.2bn | 4.3bn | 5.4bn – 6.9bn |
| 2036 | 7.6bn | 10.6bn | 5bn | 6bn – 9.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.37 | 2.91 | -1.83 | -0.07 – 0.81 |
| 2029 | -4.17 | 0.22 | -7.98 | -5.11 – -3.24 |
| 2031 | -8.72 | -3.04 | -10 | -10 – -7.07 |
| 2036 | -10 | -1.97 | -10 | -10 – -7.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.9k | 53.5k | 37.5k | 43.2k – 46.7k |
| 2029 | 50.2k | 65k | 37.4k | 46k – 54.4k |
| 2031 | 55.5k | 74.7k | 38.9k | 48.8k – 62.2k |
| 2036 | 68.7k | 95.8k | 45.3k | 54.5k – 83k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 58.2 | 89.05 | 22.61 | 52.52 – 63.88 |
| 2029 | 54 | 107.43 | 0 | 43.19 – 64.81 |
| 2031 | 49.8 | 118.78 | 0 | 35.2 – 64.4 |
| 2036 | 39.3 | 136.85 | 0 | 18 – 60.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.17(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79.47 | 87.37 | 71.58 | 76.99 – 81.95 |
| 2027 | 82.08 | 95.75 | 68.4 | 76 – 88.15 |
| 2029 | 84.68 | 102.34 | 67.03 | 75.07 – 94.3 |
| 2034 | 91.19 | 116.16 | 66.23 | 72.28 – 110.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.26(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.84 | 7.13 | -3.84 | 0.63 – 3.04 |
| 2029 | 3.38 | 12.55 | -5 | 1.18 – 5.57 |
| 2031 | 4.92 | 16.76 | -5 | 1.9 – 7.93 |
| 2036 | 8.77 | 25.52 | -5 | 3.65 – 13.88 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.8k | 114k | 104k | 105.4k – 112.2k |
| 2029 | 109.1k | 114.2k | 104.3k | 101k – 117.1k |
| 2031 | 109.3k | 114.5k | 104.5k | 96.9k – 121.7k |
| 2036 | 109.9k | 115.1k | 105.1k | 87.1k – 132.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.8bn | 1.7bn | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 4.3bn | 2.3bn | 2.6bn – 4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.77 | 8.42 | 3.11 | 5.27 – 6.27 |
| 2026 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.72 – 6.68 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 11.61 | 0 | 4.31 – 7.03 |
| 2033 | 5.64 | 14.04 | 0 | 3.45 – 7.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.8bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 2.9bn – 3.7bn |
| 2035 | 4.4bn | 5.5bn | 3.3bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.61 | 7.26 | 0 | 2.99 – 4.22 |
| 2029 | 2.22 | 8.54 | 0 | 1.14 – 3.29 |
| 2031 | 0.83 | 8.99 | 0 | 0 – 2.16 |
| 2036 | 0 | 11.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ABW · API docs
