Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Aruba: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 17/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.62 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.66, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.70) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±3.3197 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Aruba: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.85 | 28.2 | -8.5 | 5.95 – 13.76 |
| 2028 | 14.16 | 30 | -17.62 | 6.99 – 21.33 |
| 2030 | 18.47 | 30 | -22.57 | 8.62 – 28.32 |
| 2035 | 29.24 | 30 | -28.79 | 12.72 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 88.67 | 107.01 | 72.78 | 84.64 – 92.71 |
| 2027 | 94.08 | 125.84 | 66.56 | 85.03 – 103.14 |
| 2029 | 99.49 | 140.5 | 63.96 | 85.68 – 113.31 |
| 2034 | 113.02 | 150 | 62.76 | 86.65 – 139.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8bn | 5.7bn | 4bn | 4.6bn – 5bn |
| 2028 | 5.4bn | 7.1bn | 4bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 6.1bn | 8.2bn | 4.2bn | 5.3bn – 6.8bn |
| 2035 | 7.7bn | 10.7bn | 5.1bn | 6.1bn – 9.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.62 | 12 | -10 | -0.24 – 11.48 |
| 2028 | 5.85 | 12 | -10 | -4.41 – 12 |
| 2030 | 6.09 | 12 | -10 | -7.29 – 12 |
| 2035 | 6.67 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.7k | 52.3k | 36.2k | 42k – 45.4k |
| 2028 | 49.4k | 64.3k | 36.5k | 45.2k – 53.5k |
| 2030 | 55k | 74.3k | 38.4k | 48.4k – 61.7k |
| 2035 | 69.2k | 96.4k | 45.6k | 54.9k – 83.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.26 | 94.11 | 27.66 | 57.5 – 69.02 |
| 2028 | 62.58 | 116.01 | 0.92 | 51.35 – 73.8 |
| 2030 | 61.9 | 130.88 | 0 | 46.33 – 77.46 |
| 2035 | 60.19 | 157.75 | 0 | 35.55 – 84.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.17(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79.47 | 87.37 | 71.58 | 76.99 – 81.95 |
| 2027 | 82.08 | 95.75 | 68.4 | 76 – 88.15 |
| 2029 | 84.68 | 102.34 | 67.03 | 75.07 – 94.3 |
| 2034 | 91.19 | 116.16 | 66.23 | 72.28 – 110.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.26(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.37 | 5.11 | -5 | -1.61 – 0.86 |
| 2028 | -2.61 | 6.89 | -5 | -4.85 – -0.38 |
| 2030 | -4.85 | 7.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.35 | -5 | -5 – -0.35 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 108.8k | 113.9k | 104k | 105.4k – 112.1k |
| 2028 | 109.6k | 114.8k | 104.8k | 101.5k – 117.7k |
| 2030 | 110.5k | 115.7k | 105.7k | 98k – 123.1k |
| 2035 | 112.7k | 118k | 107.7k | 89.3k – 136.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.8bn | 1.7bn | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 4.3bn | 2.3bn | 2.6bn – 4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.77 | 8.42 | 3.11 | 5.27 – 6.27 |
| 2026 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.72 – 6.68 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 11.61 | 0 | 4.31 – 7.03 |
| 2033 | 5.64 | 14.04 | 0 | 3.45 – 7.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.8bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 2.9bn – 3.7bn |
| 2035 | 4.4bn | 5.5bn | 3.3bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49 | 5.99 | 0 | 1.92 – 3.07 |
| 2028 | 0.27 | 6.34 | 0 | 0 – 1.25 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.83 | 0 | 0 – 1.28 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.07 | 0 | 0 – 1.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ABW · API docs
