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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Briefs/Aruba

Intelligence brief

Aruba — intelligence brief

The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, and the business-cycle regime. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; nothing here is a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

Brief

What the data says

Observed macro, derived sentiment, and the business-cycle regime — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.

Full briefledger ca5c236

Aruba: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 10 observed macro indicators held.

Macro sentiment

Macro pressure

Derived
Normal
33/ 100

Higher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).

ⓘ How this score works
Confidence: 90%

Business-cycle regime

DerivedRegime inputsas of 2026

Slowdown

growth 2.3%momentum -3.30confidence: high
Turning-point signals
  • CPI inflation turned up (was falling, now rising).
  • Unemployment turned up (was falling, now rising).

Latest observations

Observed2 indicators omitted (not covered)

as of 2026-01-01

Current account balance to GDPObserved
6.5%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Exports of goods and servicesObserved
84.0%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Gross domestic product, current US dollarsObserved
$4.3bn

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

GDP per capita, current US dollarsObserved
$39.5k

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Real GDP growthObserved
6.8%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2026-01-01

General government debt to GDPObserved
60.3%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Imports of goods and servicesObserved
76.4%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2019-01-01

Consumer price inflationObserved
4.3%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Total populationObserved
108k

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2026-01-01

Unemployment rateObserved
4.3%

IMF DataMapper API

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ABW · API docs