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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Briefs

Intelligence briefs

Country intelligence briefs

One grounded read per country: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, and the business-cycle regime — composed from the same live series the rest of the platform serves. Pick a country, or read the full machine-readable brief at GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

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Open a brief

Every brief traces to live observed series; a country with no held data returns an honest empty state.

AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAntigua and BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamas, TheBahrain

Featured

United States — intelligence brief

A live example. Open any country above for its own brief.

Full briefledger ca5c236

United States: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held.

Macro sentiment

Macro pressure

Derived
Watch
52/ 100

Higher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).

ⓘ How this score works
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
British Virgin Islands
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cayman Islands
Central African Republic
Chad
Channel Islands
Chile
China
Colombia
Comoros
Congo
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Curacao
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
DR Congo
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Eswatini
Ethiopia
Faroe Islands
Fiji
Finland
France
French Polynesia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Gibraltar
Greece
Greenland
Grenada
Guam
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ireland
Isle of Man
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Kiribati
Kosovo
Kuwait
Kyrgyz Republic
Laos
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macao
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.
Moldova
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nauru
Nepal
Netherlands
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
North Korea
North Macedonia
Northern Mariana Islands
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Puerto Rico (US)
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Rwanda
Samoa
San Marino
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Sint Maarten (Dutch part)
Slovakia
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia, Fed. Rep.
South Africa
South Korea
South Sudan
Spain
Sri Lanka
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Martin (French part)
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Sudan
Suriname
Sweden
Switzerland
Syria
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Türkiye
Turkmenistan
Turks and Caicos Islands
Tuvalu
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Virgin Islands (U.S.)
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Confidence: 90%

Business-cycle regime

DerivedRegime inputsas of 2026

Expansion

growth 2.3%momentum +0.20confidence: high
Turning-point signals
  • Real GDP growth turned up (was falling, now rising).
  • CPI inflation turned up (was falling, now rising).

Latest observations

Observed2 indicators omitted (not covered)

as of 2026-05-01

Consumer confidence indexObserved
95.6

OECD SDMX API

as of 2026-01-01

Current account balance to GDPObserved
-3.7%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Exports of goods and servicesObserved
11.1%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Gross domestic product, current US dollarsObserved
$28.8T

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

GDP per capita, current US dollarsObserved
$84.5k

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Real GDP growthObserved
2.8%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2026-01-01

General government debt to GDPObserved
125.8%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Imports of goods and servicesObserved
14.3%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Consumer price inflationObserved
2.9%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Gross fixed capital formation to GDPObserved
21.7%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Total populationObserved
340.1m

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Productivity growthObserved
2.1%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2025-01-01

Unemployment rateObserved
4.2%

World Bank Indicators API

Full United States brief →