Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Africa Eastern and Southern: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.51 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1328 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Africa Eastern and Southern: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.84 | 29.42 | 22.73 | 24.91 – 26.76 |
| 2028 | 26.38 | 32.58 | 21 | 24.22 – 28.53 |
| 2030 | 26.92 | 34.93 | 19.97 | 23.62 – 30.22 |
| 2035 | 28.27 | 39.6 | 18.44 | 22.13 – 34.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.6T | 1.2T | 1.4T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.5T | 1.8T | 1.2T | 1.4T – 1.6T |
| 2030 | 1.6T | 2T | 1.2T | 1.4T – 1.8T |
| 2035 | 1.8T | 2.4T | 1.3T | 1.5T – 2.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 11.2 | -1.3 | 3.32 – 5.7 |
| 2028 | 6.2 | 12 | -3.85 | 3.97 – 8.43 |
| 2030 | 7.9 | 12 | -5.08 | 4.77 – 11.03 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.35 | 6.55 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 2k | 1.5k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.8k | 2.2k | 1.4k | 1.6k – 1.9k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.4k | 1.3k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2k | 2.8k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 2.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.02 | 31.78 | 24.27 | 27 – 29.05 |
| 2028 | 28.5 | 35.01 | 21.99 | 26.13 – 30.86 |
| 2030 | 28.97 | 37.37 | 20.57 | 25.37 – 32.58 |
| 2035 | 30.16 | 42.04 | 18.28 | 23.52 – 36.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.36 | 9.98 | -1.65 | 3.05 – 5.68 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 13.39 | -5 | 1.33 – 5.99 |
| 2030 | 2.96 | 15.52 | -5 | -0.06 – 5.98 |
| 2035 | 1.21 | 18.97 | -5 | -2.92 – 5.34 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.54 | 18.91 | 16.35 | 17 – 18.08 |
| 2028 | 16.52 | 18.89 | 14.47 | 15.3 – 17.75 |
| 2030 | 15.51 | 18.57 | 12.86 | 13.75 – 17.27 |
| 2035 | 12.97 | 17.3 | 9.22 | 10.28 – 15.66 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed788.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 783.9m | 821m | 749.5m | 759.6m – 808.2m |
| 2028 | 805.4m | 843.5m | 770.1m | 745.9m – 865m |
| 2030 | 827m | 866m | 790.7m | 733.1m – 920.9m |
| 2035 | 880.8m | 922.4m | 842.1m | 698.1m – 1.1bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.54 | 7.91 | -3.24 | 0.72 – 2.36 |
| 2028 | 2.57 | 13.61 | -5.71 | 1.06 – 4.07 |
| 2030 | 3.6 | 15 | -7.09 | 1.53 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 6.17 | 15 | -8.95 | 2.67 – 9.68 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.86 | 7.52 | 4.21 | 5.52 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 5.6 | 8.46 | 2.74 | 4.89 – 6.3 |
| 2030 | 5.47 | 9.16 | 1.77 | 4.46 – 6.47 |
| 2035 | 5.36 | 10.59 | 0.14 | 3.71 – 7.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.4 | 8.01 | 6.79 | 7.17 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 7.12 | 8.18 | 6.06 | 6.59 – 7.65 |
| 2030 | 6.84 | 8.21 | 5.47 | 6.07 – 7.62 |
| 2035 | 6.15 | 8.08 | 4.21 | 4.87 – 7.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AFE · API docs
