Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Afghanistan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in expansion; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.96 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+15% skill vs naive; realized ±10.3126 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Afghanistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-40.2(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -30 | -12.97 | -30 | -30 – -26.05 |
| 2028 | -30 | -0.51 | -30 | -30 – -22.54 |
| 2030 | -30 | 8.07 | -30 | -30 – -19.83 |
| 2035 | -30 | 23.84 | -30 | -30 – -14.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.7(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.95 | 22.66 | 12 | 15.86 – 18.04 |
| 2027 | 19.44 | 29.33 | 10.87 | 17.09 – 21.79 |
| 2029 | 21.93 | 34.7 | 10.86 | 18.35 – 25.51 |
| 2034 | 28.16 | 46.22 | 12.51 | 21.07 – 35.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.5bn | 25.8bn | 15.9bn | 19.5bn – 21.5bn |
| 2028 | 22.4bn | 31.6bn | 14.4bn | 20.2bn – 24.6bn |
| 2030 | 24.3bn | 36.2bn | 14bn | 21bn – 27.7bn |
| 2035 | 29.1bn | 45.9bn | 14.5bn | 22.4bn – 35.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.96 | 12 | -10 | 0.02 – 7.91 |
| 2028 | 6.66 | 12 | -10 | -0.39 – 12 |
| 2030 | 9.35 | 12 | -10 | -0.09 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -2.21 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed416.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 458.8 | 591.55 | 343.75 | 435.66 – 481.95 |
| 2028 | 481.01 | 710.94 | 281.74 | 430.55 – 531.47 |
| 2030 | 503.22 | 800.05 | 245.96 | 427.62 – 578.81 |
| 2035 | 558.73 | 978.52 | 194.91 | 419.36 – 698.1 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.15 | 11.17 | 4.66 | 7.55 – 8.74 |
| 2028 | 8.45 | 13.68 | 2.41 | 7.24 – 9.66 |
| 2030 | 8.74 | 15.5 | 0.95 | 7 – 10.48 |
| 2035 | 9.48 | 19.04 | 0 | 6.5 – 12.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 75.78 | 94.52 | 57.05 | 71.7 – 79.86 |
| 2027 | 91.23 | 123.68 | 58.78 | 81.89 – 100.58 |
| 2029 | 106.68 | 148.57 | 64.79 | 91.73 – 121.62 |
| 2034 | 145.3 | 150 | 86.06 | 112.98 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-6.6(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3 | 27.67 | -5 | 2.67 – 11.94 |
| 2028 | 20.61 | 50 | -5 | 11.8 – 29.42 |
| 2030 | 33.91 | 50 | -5 | 21.1 – 46.72 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 27.72 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.58 | 21.42 | 14.25 | 16.75 – 18.41 |
| 2027 | 18.99 | 25.63 | 13.23 | 17.13 – 20.85 |
| 2029 | 20.4 | 28.98 | 12.96 | 17.54 – 23.25 |
| 2034 | 23.92 | 36.05 | 13.4 | 18.36 – 29.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.6m | 45.6m | 41.7m | 42.2m – 44.9m |
| 2028 | 44.9m | 47m | 42.9m | 41.6m – 48.2m |
| 2030 | 46.2m | 48.4m | 44.2m | 41m – 51.5m |
| 2035 | 49.5m | 51.8m | 47.3m | 39.2m – 59.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.82(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.93 | 15 | -10 | -2.67 – 4.53 |
| 2027 | 6.5 | 15 | -10 | -0.02 – 13.02 |
| 2029 | 12.07 | 15 | -10 | 3.09 – 15 |
| 2034 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 1.27 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.4bn(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 8.7bn | 9.5bn | 7.8bn | 8.4bn – 8.9bn |
| 2023 | 9.3bn | 10.8bn | 7.9bn | 8.6bn – 10bn |
| 2025 | 10bn | 11.9bn | 8.1bn | 8.9bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.7bn | 14.3bn | 9bn | 9.2bn – 14.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.63(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 15.08 | 17.92 | 12.24 | 14.4 – 15.76 |
| 2023 | 13.23 | 18.15 | 8.32 | 11.85 – 14.62 |
| 2025 | 12.33 | 18.67 | 5.99 | 10.37 – 14.29 |
| 2030 | 11.61 | 20.57 | 2.64 | 8.38 – 14.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7bn(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 10.1bn | 11.1bn | 9.1bn | 9.8bn – 10.4bn |
| 2023 | 11bn | 12.7bn | 9.2bn | 10.2bn – 11.8bn |
| 2025 | 11.8bn | 14.1bn | 9.6bn | 10.5bn – 13.2bn |
| 2030 | 14.1bn | 17.3bn | 10.8bn | 11.1bn – 17bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.73 | 15.51 | 11.94 | 13.23 – 14.22 |
| 2028 | 14.48 | 17.57 | 11.38 | 13.31 – 15.65 |
| 2030 | 15.23 | 19.23 | 11.23 | 13.4 – 17.06 |
| 2035 | 17.11 | 22.76 | 11.46 | 13.51 – 20.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AFG · API docs
