Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
AFQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.44 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
AFQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.1 | 0.32 | -2.51 | -1.4 – -0.79 |
| 2029 | -0.69 | 1.76 | -3.14 | -1.24 – -0.14 |
| 2031 | -0.28 | 2.88 | -3.44 | -1.01 – 0.44 |
| 2036 | 0.74 | 5.2 | -3.73 | -0.34 – 1.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7T | 4.1T | 3.2T | 3.6T – 3.8T |
| 2029 | 4T | 4.8T | 3.2T | 3.7T – 4.2T |
| 2031 | 4.2T | 5.3T | 3.3T | 3.8T – 4.7T |
| 2036 | 4.9T | 6.5T | 3.6T | 3.9T – 6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.44 | 5.92 | 3.16 | 4.13 – 4.76 |
| 2029 | 4.95 | 7.5 | 2.73 | 4.28 – 5.61 |
| 2031 | 5.45 | 8.75 | 2.59 | 4.47 – 6.44 |
| 2036 | 6.71 | 11.38 | 2.67 | 4.86 – 8.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.1k | 2.3k – 2.5k |
| 2029 | 2.5k | 3.1k | 2k | 2.3k – 2.7k |
| 2031 | 2.6k | 3.4k | 1.9k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2036 | 2.8k | 3.9k | 1.9k | 2.2k – 3.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.32 | 70.23 | 57.51 | 62.33 – 66.32 |
| 2029 | 67.97 | 78.21 | 56.16 | 62.94 – 73 |
| 2031 | 71.62 | 84.83 | 56.37 | 63.49 – 79.75 |
| 2036 | 80.74 | 99.43 | 59.18 | 63.99 – 97.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.58 | 18.22 | -1.74 | 6.31 – 10.86 |
| 2029 | 3.4 | 20.09 | -5 | -0.46 – 7.27 |
| 2031 | -1.78 | 19.77 | -5 | -5 – 3.14 |
| 2036 | -5 | 25.48 | -5 | -5 – 2.56 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2031 | 1.6bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2036 | 1.7bn | 1.7bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn – 2bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AFQ · API docs
