Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
AFQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.09 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4903 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
AFQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.93 | -0.37 | -3.49 | -2.28 – -1.58 |
| 2028 | -1.59 | 1.11 | -4.29 | -2.22 – -0.96 |
| 2030 | -1.25 | 2.23 | -4.73 | -2.06 – -0.44 |
| 2035 | -0.4 | 4.52 | -5.32 | -1.56 – 0.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2T | 3.5T | 2.8T | 3.1T – 3.3T |
| 2028 | 3.2T | 3.8T | 2.6T | 2.9T – 3.4T |
| 2030 | 3.2T | 4T | 2.5T | 2.8T – 3.6T |
| 2035 | 3.3T | 4.4T | 2.2T | 2.6T – 3.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.09 | 10.57 | 0.34 | 4.09 – 6.09 |
| 2028 | 6.45 | 12 | -1.78 | 4.56 – 8.34 |
| 2030 | 7.8 | 12 | -2.82 | 5.14 – 10.47 |
| 2035 | 11.2 | 12 | -3.83 | 6.52 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.2k |
| 2028 | 2k | 2.5k | 1.6k | 1.9k – 2.2k |
| 2030 | 2k | 2.6k | 1.4k | 1.7k – 2.2k |
| 2035 | 1.8k | 2.6k | 1k | 1.4k – 2.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.02 | 71.65 | 59.54 | 63.98 – 68.07 |
| 2028 | 70.47 | 80.21 | 59.23 | 65.26 – 75.68 |
| 2030 | 74.92 | 87.49 | 60.41 | 66.41 – 83.42 |
| 2035 | 86.04 | 103.82 | 65.52 | 68.19 – 103.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.44 | 18.63 | -0.41 | 7.25 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | -2.46 | 13.45 | -5 | -5 – 1.18 |
| 2030 | -5 | 15.55 | -5 | -5 – -0.04 |
| 2035 | -5 | 24.06 | -5 | -5 – 2.24 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2035 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn – 2bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AFQ · API docs
