Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Africa Western and Central: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 16/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.3 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.68, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.74) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2325 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Africa Western and Central: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed852.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 802.1bn | 1.1T | 544.9bn | 754bn – 850.3bn |
| 2028 | 692.8bn | 1.2T | 247.4bn | 598.3bn – 787.2bn |
| 2030 | 583.5bn | 1.2T | 8.4bn | 457.8bn – 709.1bn |
| 2035 | 310.1bn | 1.2T | 0 | 148.8bn – 471.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 0.78 | 4.34 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 6.91 | 12 | -0.91 | 5.07 – 8.74 |
| 2030 | 8.52 | 12 | -1.57 | 5.9 – 11.14 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -2.27 | 7.34 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 942.08 | 1.4k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.2k | 2.2k | 261.4 | 996.08 – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 885.64 | 2.3k | 0 | 652.13 – 1.1k |
| 2035 | 153.12 | 2.1k | 0 | 0 – 407.66 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.06 | 6.27 | -4.52 | -0.11 – 2.23 |
| 2028 | -1.67 | 7.36 | -5 | -3.75 – 0.41 |
| 2030 | -4.4 | 7.25 | -5 | -5 – -1.47 |
| 2035 | -5 | 11.48 | -5 | -5 – -0.55 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed532.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 529.6m | 554.6m | 506.4m | 513.2m – 546m |
| 2028 | 543m | 568.6m | 519.1m | 502.8m – 583.1m |
| 2030 | 556.3m | 582.6m | 531.9m | 493.2m – 619.5m |
| 2035 | 589.8m | 617.6m | 563.9m | 467.4m – 712.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2 | 8.06 | -2.2 | 1.43 – 2.97 |
| 2028 | 3.69 | 13.85 | -3.92 | 2.25 – 5.14 |
| 2030 | 5.19 | 15 | -4.64 | 3.14 – 7.24 |
| 2035 | 8.93 | 15 | -4.97 | 5.19 – 12.68 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.68 | 9.07 | 4.29 | 6.21 – 7.15 |
| 2028 | 6.11 | 10.25 | 1.96 | 5.18 – 7.04 |
| 2030 | 5.83 | 11.18 | 0.48 | 4.54 – 7.11 |
| 2035 | 5.6 | 13.17 | 0 | 3.55 – 7.66 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.82 | 3.61 | 2.04 | 2.66 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 3.45 | 0.72 | 1.78 – 2.4 |
| 2030 | 1.35 | 3.11 | 0 | 0.97 – 1.73 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.49 | 0 | 0 – 0.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AFW · API docs
