Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Angola: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 59/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.59 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+15% skill vs naive; realized ±6.5619 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Angola: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.65 | 10.67 | -7.37 | -0.22 – 3.52 |
| 2029 | 0.55 | 16.17 | -15.07 | -2.68 – 3.79 |
| 2031 | -0.54 | 19.62 | -20.71 | -4.74 – 3.65 |
| 2036 | -3.29 | 25.23 | -30 | -9.63 – 3.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.53 | 31.8 | 12.63 | 19.72 – 23.34 |
| 2028 | 18.63 | 36.41 | 3.21 | 15.19 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 15.73 | 38.69 | 0 | 11.19 – 20.27 |
| 2035 | 8.48 | 40.95 | 0 | 2.48 – 14.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 163.1bn | 216bn | 117.1bn | 154.1bn – 172bn |
| 2029 | 190.3bn | 282bn | 110.8bn | 170.2bn – 210.3bn |
| 2031 | 217.5bn | 336bn | 114.9bn | 186bn – 249bn |
| 2036 | 285.6bn | 453.1bn | 140.4bn | 220bn – 351.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.59 | 6.56 | -2.71 | 0.74 – 2.45 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 8.74 | -7.33 | -1.35 – 1.61 |
| 2031 | -1.33 | 9.78 | -10 | -3.29 – 0.63 |
| 2036 | -4.99 | 10.73 | -10 | -8.4 – -1.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4k | 5.4k | 2.7k | 3.7k – 4.2k |
| 2029 | 4.5k | 7k | 2.2k | 3.9k – 5k |
| 2031 | 5k | 8.3k | 2.1k | 4.2k – 5.8k |
| 2036 | 6.3k | 10.9k | 2.2k | 4.7k – 7.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.64 | 87.01 | 2.22 | 40.82 – 54.46 |
| 2029 | 39.73 | 107.92 | 0 | 27.33 – 52.12 |
| 2031 | 31.81 | 119.84 | 0 | 15.72 – 47.9 |
| 2036 | 12.02 | 136.52 | 0 | 0 – 33.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.41 | 15.44 | 5.39 | 9.48 – 11.35 |
| 2028 | 7.91 | 16.61 | 0 | 6.2 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 16.63 | 0 | 3.25 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 0 | 15.88 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.4 | 28.02 | -5 | 6.33 – 14.47 |
| 2029 | 0.23 | 30.76 | -5 | -5 – 7.05 |
| 2031 | -5 | 34.41 | -5 | -5 – 4.14 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.15 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.62(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.97 | 12.7 | 5.75 | 8.3 – 9.65 |
| 2027 | 4.57 | 11.03 | 0 | 3.43 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 0.17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 – 1.44 |
| 2034 | 0 | 11.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40.3m | 42.2m | 38.6m | 39.1m – 41.6m |
| 2029 | 42m | 44m | 40.2m | 38.9m – 45.1m |
| 2031 | 43.7m | 45.8m | 41.8m | 38.8m – 48.7m |
| 2036 | 48m | 50.2m | 45.9m | 38m – 57.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.43 | 7.58 | -4.93 | -0.48 – 1.34 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 14.3 | -7.38 | 0.27 – 3.55 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 15 | -8.6 | 1.12 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 7.1 | 15 | -9.86 | 3.14 – 11.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.59 | 8.61 | 2.57 | 5.04 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.9 | 11.13 | 0.67 | 4.82 – 6.98 |
| 2030 | 6.05 | 12.8 | 0 | 4.54 – 7.57 |
| 2035 | 6.18 | 15.72 | 0 | 3.73 – 8.63 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.58 | 14.91 | 12.26 | 13.16 – 14 |
| 2028 | 12.54 | 14.83 | 10.24 | 11.58 – 13.49 |
| 2030 | 11.49 | 14.45 | 8.52 | 10.11 – 12.86 |
| 2035 | 8.87 | 13.05 | 4.68 | 6.81 – 10.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AGO · API docs
