Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Angola: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 56/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.16 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+14% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2416 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Angola: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.15 | 8.71 | -9.01 | -1.97 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | -1.04 | 14.31 | -16.39 | -4.23 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | -1.94 | 17.88 | -21.75 | -6.14 – 2.26 |
| 2035 | -4.18 | 23.85 | -30 | -10.56 – 2.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.53 | 31.8 | 12.63 | 19.72 – 23.34 |
| 2028 | 18.63 | 36.41 | 3.21 | 15.19 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 15.73 | 38.69 | 0 | 11.19 – 20.27 |
| 2035 | 8.48 | 40.95 | 0 | 2.48 – 14.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.8bn | 173.3bn | 77.2bn | 113.7bn – 129.9bn |
| 2028 | 124.3bn | 213.5bn | 47bn | 107.7bn – 140.9bn |
| 2030 | 126.7bn | 241.9bn | 26.9bn | 102.9bn – 150.6bn |
| 2035 | 132.9bn | 295.7bn | 0 | 92.2bn – 173.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16 | 11.06 | -1.82 | 2.94 – 5.37 |
| 2028 | 6.4 | 12 | -3.96 | 4.1 – 8.7 |
| 2030 | 8.64 | 12 | -4.73 | 5.38 – 11.9 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.91 | 6.44 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 4.5k | 1.8k | 2.8k – 3.3k |
| 2028 | 2.9k | 5.5k | 726.29 | 2.5k – 3.4k |
| 2030 | 2.8k | 6.1k | 0 | 2.2k – 3.5k |
| 2035 | 2.6k | 7.2k | 0 | 1.6k – 3.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.77 | 90.51 | 4.92 | 43.84 – 57.7 |
| 2028 | 46.51 | 115.34 | 0 | 33.69 – 59.33 |
| 2030 | 42.25 | 131.11 | 0 | 25.2 – 59.3 |
| 2035 | 31.6 | 157.27 | 0 | 7.21 – 55.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.41 | 15.44 | 5.39 | 9.48 – 11.35 |
| 2028 | 7.91 | 16.61 | 0 | 6.2 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 16.63 | 0 | 3.25 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 0 | 15.88 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.85 | 33.28 | -2.82 | 11.74 – 19.97 |
| 2028 | 4.54 | 34.72 | -5 | -2.37 – 11.45 |
| 2030 | -5 | 33.96 | -5 | -5 – 4.04 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.01 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.62(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.97 | 12.7 | 5.75 | 8.3 – 9.65 |
| 2027 | 4.57 | 11.03 | 0 | 3.43 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 0.17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 – 1.44 |
| 2034 | 0 | 11.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.7m | 40.6m | 37m | 37.5m – 39.9m |
| 2028 | 40m | 41.9m | 38.3m | 37.1m – 43m |
| 2030 | 41.3m | 43.2m | 39.5m | 36.6m – 46m |
| 2035 | 44.5m | 46.6m | 42.5m | 35.2m – 53.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.43 | 7.58 | -4.93 | -0.48 – 1.34 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 14.3 | -7.38 | 0.27 – 3.55 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 15 | -8.6 | 1.12 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 7.1 | 15 | -9.86 | 3.14 – 11.06 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.56 | 8.58 | 2.55 | 5.01 – 6.11 |
| 2028 | 5.89 | 11.11 | 0.66 | 4.81 – 6.97 |
| 2030 | 6.05 | 12.79 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.56 |
| 2035 | 6.17 | 15.72 | 0 | 3.72 – 8.62 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.58 | 14.91 | 12.26 | 13.16 – 14 |
| 2028 | 12.54 | 14.83 | 10.24 | 11.58 – 13.49 |
| 2030 | 11.49 | 14.45 | 8.52 | 10.11 – 12.86 |
| 2035 | 8.87 | 13.05 | 4.68 | 6.81 – 10.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AGO · API docs
