Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Albania: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.95 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+10% skill vs naive; realized ±5.5927 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Albania: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.77 | 2 | -5.54 | -2.57 – -0.97 |
| 2029 | 0.29 | 6.81 | -6.24 | -1.09 – 1.67 |
| 2031 | 2.34 | 10.77 | -6.08 | 0.44 – 4.25 |
| 2036 | 7.49 | 19.4 | -4.43 | 3.86 – 11.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.46 | 49.19 | 29.16 | 36.32 – 40.61 |
| 2028 | 41.36 | 59.95 | 25.26 | 36.72 – 46 |
| 2030 | 44.26 | 68.25 | 23.47 | 37.29 – 51.23 |
| 2035 | 51.51 | 85.44 | 22.1 | 38.42 – 64.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.8bn | 39bn | 33bn | 34.7bn – 36.9bn |
| 2029 | 42bn | 47.6bn | 37.1bn | 38.9bn – 45.1bn |
| 2031 | 48.1bn | 55.4bn | 41.9bn | 42.7bn – 53.6bn |
| 2036 | 63.6bn | 73.8bn | 54.7bn | 50.4bn – 76.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.95 | 6.18 | 0.15 | 2.36 – 3.53 |
| 2029 | 1.87 | 7.47 | -2.98 | 0.85 – 2.9 |
| 2031 | 0.8 | 8.03 | -5.46 | -0.48 – 2.09 |
| 2036 | -1.88 | 8.34 | -10 | -3.88 – 0.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.3k | 15.2k | 11.7k | 12.9k – 13.8k |
| 2029 | 15.4k | 18.6k | 12.7k | 14.3k – 16.6k |
| 2031 | 17.5k | 21.6k | 14k | 15.5k – 19.5k |
| 2036 | 22.7k | 28.5k | 17.7k | 18k – 27.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.97 | 57.77 | 38.81 | 46.83 – 51.11 |
| 2029 | 43.91 | 59.16 | 26.31 | 39.45 – 48.36 |
| 2031 | 38.84 | 58.53 | 16.12 | 32.71 – 44.98 |
| 2036 | 26.18 | 54.03 | 0 | 17.71 – 34.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.56 | 51.13 | 33.98 | 40.56 – 44.55 |
| 2028 | 42.63 | 57.49 | 27.77 | 38.31 – 46.95 |
| 2030 | 42.7 | 61.88 | 23.52 | 36.35 – 49.05 |
| 2035 | 42.89 | 70.01 | 15.76 | 31.87 – 53.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.98 | 9.23 | -1.65 | 2.75 – 5.21 |
| 2029 | 5.74 | 14.83 | -4.01 | 3.44 – 8.03 |
| 2031 | 7.49 | 19.24 | -5 | 4.29 – 10.69 |
| 2036 | 11.88 | 28.49 | -5 | 6.3 – 17.46 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.01 | 26.52 | 21.82 | 23.26 – 24.75 |
| 2028 | 23.36 | 27.72 | 19.58 | 21.61 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 22.71 | 28.34 | 17.83 | 20.09 – 25.33 |
| 2035 | 21.1 | 29.06 | 14.19 | 16.58 – 25.61 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.7m | 2.9m | 2.5m | 2.6m – 2.8m |
| 2029 | 3.1m | 3.4m | 2.7m | 2.8m – 3.3m |
| 2031 | 3.4m | 3.9m | 3m | 3m – 3.8m |
| 2036 | 4.3m | 5m | 3.7m | 3.4m – 5.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 15 | -3.72 | 3.81 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.31 | 15 | -8.53 | 4.32 – 10.3 |
| 2030 | 9.19 | 15 | -10 | 5.05 – 13.33 |
| 2035 | 13.89 | 15 | -10 | 6.85 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.7bn | 10.2bn | 7.2bn | 8.3bn – 9bn |
| 2028 | 10.2bn | 12.8bn | 7.6bn | 9.3bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.7bn | 15.1bn | 8.4bn | 10.3bn – 13.2bn |
| 2035 | 15.5bn | 20.3bn | 10.8bn | 12.3bn – 18.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.11 | 9.76 | 4.45 | 6.59 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 6.98 | 11.59 | 2.38 | 5.94 – 8.02 |
| 2030 | 6.92 | 12.87 | 0.98 | 5.46 – 8.39 |
| 2035 | 6.88 | 15.28 | 0 | 4.49 – 9.26 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3bn | 10.8bn | 7.7bn | 8.9bn – 9.7bn |
| 2028 | 11bn | 13.7bn | 8.2bn | 10bn – 11.9bn |
| 2030 | 12.7bn | 16.2bn | 9.1bn | 11.1bn – 14.2bn |
| 2035 | 16.9bn | 21.9bn | 11.9bn | 13.4bn – 20.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.32 | 10.06 | 6.57 | 7.92 – 8.72 |
| 2029 | 7.55 | 10.57 | 4.53 | 6.72 – 8.37 |
| 2031 | 6.78 | 10.68 | 2.88 | 5.64 – 7.92 |
| 2036 | 4.86 | 10.38 | 0 | 3.24 – 6.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ALB · API docs
