Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Andorra: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 9/100); the economy is in expansion; 9 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.8 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.82, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.74) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±2.9037 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Andorra: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed20.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.21 | 25.51 | 14.92 | 18.81 – 21.62 |
| 2028 | 20.64 | 29.82 | 11.46 | 17.78 – 23.51 |
| 2030 | 21.07 | 30 | 9.22 | 16.97 – 25.18 |
| 2035 | 22.14 | 30 | 5.39 | 15.18 – 29.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.3bn | 4.3bn | 4.6bn – 4.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 6.3bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 5.9bn | 7.1bn | 4.9bn | 5.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2035 | 7.4bn | 9.1bn | 5.9bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8 | 12 | -10 | 1.65 – 7.95 |
| 2028 | 6.79 | 12 | -10 | 1.14 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.78 | 12 | -10 | 1.21 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.36 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.6k | 63.5k | 50.7k | 54.9k – 58.4k |
| 2028 | 62.6k | 74.4k | 52.3k | 57.9k – 67.2k |
| 2030 | 68.5k | 83.8k | 55.2k | 60.7k – 76.3k |
| 2035 | 83.3k | 105k | 64.5k | 66k – 100.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.62 | 39.06 | 18.73 | 27.69 – 31.55 |
| 2028 | 28.26 | 44.61 | 9.39 | 24.39 – 32.13 |
| 2030 | 26.9 | 48.01 | 2.54 | 21.5 – 32.3 |
| 2035 | 23.49 | 53.35 | 0 | 15.14 – 31.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 7.2 | -2.9 | 1.2 – 3.44 |
| 2028 | 1.34 | 9.79 | -5 | -0.6 – 3.28 |
| 2030 | 0.36 | 11.26 | -5 | -2.14 – 2.86 |
| 2035 | -2.09 | 13.33 | -5 | -5 – 1.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.6k | 86.5k | 79k | 80k – 85.1k |
| 2028 | 83.7k | 87.6k | 80k | 77.5k – 89.8k |
| 2030 | 84.7k | 88.7k | 81k | 75.1k – 94.3k |
| 2035 | 87.4k | 91.5k | 83.5k | 69.2k – 105.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9 | 1.97 | 0 | 0.72 – 1.08 |
| 2028 | 0.1 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.43 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.39 | 0 | 0 – 0.45 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.38 | 0 | 0 – 0.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AND · API docs
