Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Andorra: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 9 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.22 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±7.4394 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Andorra: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed16(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.92 | 19.78 | 12.06 | 14.88 – 16.96 |
| 2029 | 15.76 | 22.45 | 9.08 | 13.64 – 17.88 |
| 2031 | 15.6 | 24.23 | 6.97 | 12.59 – 18.61 |
| 2036 | 15.2 | 27.41 | 3 | 10.28 – 20.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1bn | 5.7bn | 4.7bn | 5bn – 5.3bn |
| 2029 | 5.8bn | 6.7bn | 5bn | 5.4bn – 6.2bn |
| 2031 | 6.5bn | 7.6bn | 5.5bn | 5.7bn – 7.2bn |
| 2036 | 8.1bn | 9.8bn | 6.7bn | 6.4bn – 9.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.22 | 7.69 | -4.39 | 0.12 – 2.32 |
| 2029 | -0.88 | 10.32 | -10 | -2.8 – 1.03 |
| 2031 | -2.98 | 11.48 | -10 | -5.63 – -0.33 |
| 2036 | -8.23 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 55.4k | 62.1k | 49.7k | 53.7k – 57.1k |
| 2029 | 60.3k | 71.8k | 50.3k | 55.8k – 64.7k |
| 2031 | 65.1k | 80k | 52.2k | 57.7k – 72.5k |
| 2036 | 77.2k | 98.3k | 59k | 61.2k – 93.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.87 | 36.33 | 15.96 | 24.99 – 28.76 |
| 2029 | 24.61 | 40.99 | 5.71 | 20.91 – 28.31 |
| 2031 | 22.35 | 43.5 | 0 | 17.31 – 27.4 |
| 2036 | 16.71 | 46.61 | 0 | 9.44 – 23.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.36 | 8.11 | -1.72 | 2.26 – 4.47 |
| 2029 | 4.2 | 12.43 | -4.61 | 2.18 – 6.23 |
| 2031 | 5.04 | 15.67 | -5 | 2.29 – 7.8 |
| 2036 | 7.14 | 22.16 | -5 | 2.67 – 11.62 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 91.4k | 95.7k | 87.4k | 88.6k – 94.3k |
| 2029 | 100.3k | 107.5k | 93.7k | 92.9k – 107.8k |
| 2031 | 109.2k | 118.5k | 100.6k | 96.8k – 121.6k |
| 2036 | 131.5k | 144.6k | 119.3k | 104.2k – 158.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.7 | 1.57 | 0 | 0.55 – 0.85 |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.51 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2031 | 0 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.76 | 0 | 0 – 0.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AND · API docs
