Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
APQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.15 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.746 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
APQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.31 | 4.29 | 2.32 | 3.05 – 3.56 |
| 2028 | 3.72 | 5.42 | 2.01 | 3.19 – 4.24 |
| 2030 | 4.13 | 6.33 | 1.93 | 3.35 – 4.91 |
| 2035 | 5.16 | 8.27 | 2.04 | 3.7 – 6.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45.2T | 39.2T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 44.7T | 50.2T | 39.9T | 41.4T – 48T |
| 2030 | 47.3T | 54.5T | 41.1T | 42T – 52.7T |
| 2035 | 54T | 64.1T | 45.2T | 42.8T – 65.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 12 | -1.58 | 3.77 – 6.52 |
| 2028 | 5.72 | 12 | -5.94 | 3.21 – 8.24 |
| 2030 | 6.3 | 12 | -8.75 | 2.9 – 9.7 |
| 2035 | 7.74 | 12 | -10 | 2.41 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3k | 10k | 8.6k | 9k – 9.5k |
| 2028 | 9.8k | 11k | 8.7k | 9k – 10.5k |
| 2030 | 10.3k | 11.9k | 8.8k | 9.1k – 11.4k |
| 2035 | 11.5k | 13.8k | 9.5k | 9.1k – 13.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed96.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.53 | 102.46 | 87.54 | 92.57 – 98.49 |
| 2028 | 99.6 | 111.6 | 85.75 | 92.23 – 106.97 |
| 2030 | 103.66 | 119.16 | 85.78 | 91.89 – 115.43 |
| 2035 | 113.83 | 135.74 | 88.54 | 90.22 – 137.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.12 | 5.74 | -1.76 | 1.28 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | -0.12 | 6.16 | -5 | -1.56 – 1.32 |
| 2030 | -2.36 | 5.74 | -5 | -4.35 – -0.38 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.46 | -5 | -5 – -1.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.4bn – 4.7bn |
| 2028 | 4.5bn | 4.8bn | 4.3bn | 4.2bn – 4.9bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 4.8bn | 4.4bn | 4bn – 5.1bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 4.9bn | 4.4bn | 3.7bn – 5.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-17 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/APQ · API docs
