Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
APQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in expansion; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.28 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5819 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
APQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.42 | 4.39 | 2.46 | 3.17 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 3.87 | 5.54 | 2.2 | 3.34 – 4.4 |
| 2030 | 4.32 | 6.48 | 2.16 | 3.53 – 5.1 |
| 2035 | 5.44 | 8.49 | 2.39 | 3.95 – 6.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45.4T | 39.2T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 44.7T | 50.5T | 39.7T | 41.4T – 48T |
| 2030 | 47.4T | 54.8T | 40.9T | 42T – 52.8T |
| 2035 | 54.1T | 64.6T | 45T | 42.8T – 65.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.28 | 12 | -1.44 | 3.91 – 6.66 |
| 2028 | 5.94 | 12 | -5.7 | 3.41 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 6.59 | 12 | -8.43 | 3.18 – 10.01 |
| 2035 | 8.23 | 12 | -10 | 2.83 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3k | 10k | 8.6k | 9k – 9.6k |
| 2028 | 9.8k | 11.1k | 8.6k | 9k – 10.5k |
| 2030 | 10.3k | 12k | 8.8k | 9.1k – 11.4k |
| 2035 | 11.5k | 13.9k | 9.4k | 9.1k – 13.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.02 | 102.15 | 86.79 | 92.07 – 97.96 |
| 2028 | 99.05 | 111.4 | 84.8 | 91.72 – 106.38 |
| 2030 | 103.08 | 119.03 | 84.68 | 91.38 – 114.79 |
| 2035 | 113.16 | 135.72 | 87.14 | 89.69 – 136.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.12 | 5.74 | -1.76 | 1.28 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | -0.12 | 6.16 | -5 | -1.56 – 1.32 |
| 2030 | -2.36 | 5.74 | -5 | -4.35 – -0.38 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.46 | -5 | -5 – -1.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.4bn – 4.6bn |
| 2028 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.2bn – 4.9bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 4.8bn | 4.4bn | 4bn – 5.1bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 4.8bn | 4.4bn | 3.7bn – 5.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/APQ · API docs
