Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
APQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.24 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±3.3766 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
APQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.75 | 3.87 | 1.64 | 2.48 – 3.03 |
| 2029 | 3.06 | 4.99 | 1.14 | 2.52 – 3.6 |
| 2031 | 3.37 | 5.86 | 0.89 | 2.6 – 4.15 |
| 2036 | 4.15 | 7.66 | 0.63 | 2.77 – 5.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.7T | 47.9T | 41.9T | 43.3T – 46.1T |
| 2029 | 48.1T | 53.7T | 43.3T | 44.6T – 51.7T |
| 2031 | 51.5T | 58.8T | 45.3T | 45.7T – 57.4T |
| 2036 | 60.1T | 70.3T | 51.2T | 47.6T – 72.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.24 | 6.86 | 1.96 | 3.73 – 4.74 |
| 2029 | 3.83 | 8.38 | -0.11 | 2.89 – 4.78 |
| 2031 | 3.43 | 9.31 | -1.66 | 2.18 – 4.68 |
| 2036 | 2.43 | 10.74 | -4.77 | 0.65 – 4.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.9k | 10.7k | 9.3k | 9.6k – 10.2k |
| 2029 | 10.6k | 11.9k | 9.5k | 9.8k – 11.4k |
| 2031 | 11.3k | 13k | 9.8k | 10k – 12.6k |
| 2036 | 13.1k | 15.4k | 11k | 10.3k – 15.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed96.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 98.4 | 105.21 | 90.54 | 95.35 – 101.45 |
| 2029 | 102.6 | 114.39 | 88.99 | 95.01 – 110.19 |
| 2031 | 106.8 | 122.02 | 89.23 | 94.67 – 118.92 |
| 2036 | 117.29 | 138.82 | 92.45 | 92.96 – 141.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.26 | 7.99 | 0.27 | 3.37 – 5.16 |
| 2029 | 5.66 | 12.12 | -1.25 | 3.96 – 7.36 |
| 2031 | 7.06 | 15.4 | -1.87 | 4.65 – 9.47 |
| 2036 | 10.56 | 22.35 | -2.07 | 6.26 – 14.86 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.3bn – 4.6bn |
| 2029 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.1bn – 4.8bn |
| 2031 | 4.4bn | 4.7bn | 4.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.9bn |
| 2036 | 4.4bn | 4.6bn | 4.2bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/APQ · API docs
