Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
United Arab Emirates: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 12/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.83 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.76, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.76) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2009-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±3.7336 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
United Arab Emirates: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2010, 2012, 2014, 2019, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed11.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.51 | 21.12 | 11.9 | 15.3 – 17.71 |
| 2028 | 18.93 | 26.9 | 10.95 | 16.39 – 21.46 |
| 2030 | 21.34 | 30 | 11.04 | 17.53 – 25.15 |
| 2035 | 27.38 | 30 | 12.81 | 20.03 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed106.85(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 108.72 | 114.54 | 103.68 | 105.35 – 112.09 |
| 2026 | 112.47 | 122.54 | 103.73 | 104.15 – 120.79 |
| 2028 | 116.21 | 129.22 | 104.93 | 103.02 – 129.41 |
| 2033 | 125.58 | 143.98 | 109.63 | 99.53 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed552.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 588.5bn | 692.1bn | 498.7bn | 566.8bn – 610.3bn |
| 2028 | 633.7bn | 813.2bn | 478.2bn | 582bn – 685.5bn |
| 2030 | 678.9bn | 910.6bn | 478.2bn | 597bn – 760.8bn |
| 2035 | 791.9bn | 1.1T | 508bn | 626.2bn – 957.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.99(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.83 | 12 | -3.33 | 4.77 – 8.9 |
| 2028 | 9.23 | 12 | -8.37 | 5.4 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.63 | 12 | -10 | 6.33 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.9 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.3k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.4k | 60k | 42.1k | 48.4k – 52.3k |
| 2028 | 51.1k | 67.7k | 36.7k | 46.7k – 55.5k |
| 2030 | 51.8k | 73.3k | 33.3k | 45.1k – 58.5k |
| 2035 | 53.6k | 83.9k | 27.4k | 41.4k – 65.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.21 | 41.73 | 29.85 | 34.79 – 37.64 |
| 2028 | 40.04 | 49.6 | 29.02 | 36.65 – 43.44 |
| 2030 | 43.87 | 56.2 | 29.64 | 38.47 – 49.28 |
| 2035 | 53.45 | 70.89 | 33.32 | 42.21 – 64.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.2(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 95.55 | 107.55 | 83.55 | 92.18 – 98.92 |
| 2026 | 102.25 | 123.04 | 81.46 | 94.16 – 110.34 |
| 2028 | 108.95 | 135.79 | 82.12 | 96.13 – 121.78 |
| 2033 | 125.71 | 150 | 87.76 | 99.63 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13 | 7.06 | -5 | -0.2 – 2.47 |
| 2028 | 0.56 | 10.82 | -5 | -1.77 – 2.88 |
| 2030 | -0.02 | 13.23 | -5 | -3.04 – 3 |
| 2035 | -1.46 | 17.28 | -5 | -5 – 2.92 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.91(2009)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 30.62 | 37.57 | 24.6 | 29.14 – 32.1 |
| 2012 | 35.05 | 47.08 | 24.62 | 31.65 – 38.45 |
| 2014 | 39.48 | 55.02 | 26.02 | 34.1 – 44.86 |
| 2019 | 50.56 | 70 | 31.52 | 39.33 – 61.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.4m | 11.9m | 10.9m | 11m – 11.8m |
| 2028 | 12m | 12.6m | 11.4m | 11.1m – 12.9m |
| 2030 | 12.6m | 13.4m | 11.8m | 11.1m – 14m |
| 2035 | 14m | 15.2m | 12.9m | 11.1m – 16.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.17(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -2.1 | 8.44 | -10 | -3.45 – -0.75 |
| 2027 | -4.03 | 14.24 | -10 | -6.51 – -1.55 |
| 2029 | -5.96 | 15 | -10 | -9.38 – -2.53 |
| 2034 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 314.1bn | 356.4bn | 271.9bn | 302.7bn – 325.6bn |
| 2028 | 393.5bn | 466.6bn | 320.3bn | 363.4bn – 423.6bn |
| 2030 | 472.8bn | 567.3bn | 378.4bn | 419.1bn – 526.5bn |
| 2035 | 671.2bn | 804.7bn | 537.7bn | 532bn – 810.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.11 | 5.36 | 4.86 | 4.95 – 5.27 |
| 2027 | 5.01 | 5.25 | 4.76 | 4.64 – 5.38 |
| 2029 | 4.96 | 5.2 | 4.71 | 4.39 – 5.52 |
| 2034 | 4.92 | 5.16 | 4.67 | 3.9 – 5.94 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed292.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 325.9bn | 368.7bn | 283.1bn | 314.1bn – 337.7bn |
| 2028 | 408.6bn | 482.6bn | 334.5bn | 377.6bn – 439.5bn |
| 2030 | 491.2bn | 586.8bn | 395.6bn | 435.5bn – 547bn |
| 2035 | 697.9bn | 833.1bn | 562.7bn | 553.1bn – 842.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77 | 2.68 | 0.85 | 1.6 – 1.94 |
| 2028 | 0.96 | 2.55 | 0 | 0.67 – 1.25 |
| 2030 | 0.15 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 – 0.54 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.89 | 0 | 0 – 0.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ARE · API docs
