Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Argentina: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.58 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±8.4594 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Argentina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.96 | 3.39 | -5.3 | -1.86 – -0.05 |
| 2029 | -1.27 | 6.26 | -8.79 | -2.86 – 0.33 |
| 2031 | -1.58 | 8.14 | -11.3 | -3.69 – 0.53 |
| 2036 | -2.36 | 11.38 | -16.1 | -5.54 – 0.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.33 | 20.16 | 11.15 | 14.4 – 16.27 |
| 2028 | 14.89 | 23.25 | 7.64 | 12.98 – 16.8 |
| 2030 | 14.44 | 25.24 | 5.09 | 11.75 – 17.14 |
| 2035 | 13.33 | 28.6 | 0.1 | 9.02 – 17.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed683.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 708.7bn | 845.9bn | 589.8bn | 681bn – 736.4bn |
| 2029 | 762.8bn | 1T | 556.9bn | 697.9bn – 827.7bn |
| 2031 | 816.8bn | 1.1T | 551bn | 715bn – 918.7bn |
| 2036 | 952bn | 1.4T | 576.1bn | 748bn – 1.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.58 | 12 | -3.79 | 2.9 – 6.26 |
| 2029 | 6.73 | 12 | -7.76 | 3.62 – 9.84 |
| 2031 | 8.88 | 12 | -9.82 | 4.58 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.7k | 17.8k | 11.9k | 14.1k – 15.3k |
| 2029 | 15.5k | 21k | 10.8k | 14.1k – 16.9k |
| 2031 | 16.4k | 23.5k | 10.3k | 14.3k – 18.6k |
| 2036 | 18.6k | 28.6k | 9.9k | 14.4k – 22.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 71.71 | 136.68 | 0 | 60.57 – 82.85 |
| 2029 | 74.34 | 186.87 | 0 | 53.46 – 95.22 |
| 2031 | 76.96 | 222.24 | 0 | 48.45 – 105.47 |
| 2036 | 83.52 | 288.97 | 0 | 38.55 – 128.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.57 | 17.31 | 11.84 | 13.92 – 15.23 |
| 2028 | 14.11 | 18.84 | 9.37 | 12.7 – 15.51 |
| 2030 | 13.64 | 19.75 | 7.53 | 11.61 – 15.66 |
| 2035 | 12.46 | 21.1 | 3.83 | 9.15 – 15.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.93 | 50 | -5 | -3.67 – 50 |
| 2029 | 22.83 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2031 | 6.73 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.74 | 19.08 | 12.85 | 15.01 – 16.47 |
| 2028 | 15.21 | 20.99 | 10.2 | 13.65 – 16.77 |
| 2030 | 14.68 | 22.14 | 8.21 | 12.44 – 16.92 |
| 2035 | 13.35 | 23.9 | 4.2 | 9.7 – 16.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.1m | 50.4m | 46m | 46.6m – 49.6m |
| 2029 | 50.4m | 52.8m | 48.2m | 46.7m – 54.1m |
| 2031 | 52.7m | 55.3m | 50.3m | 46.7m – 58.7m |
| 2036 | 58.5m | 62.1m | 55.1m | 46.3m – 70.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 11.2 | -1.85 | 2.75 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 5.52 | 15 | -4.18 | 3.64 – 7.4 |
| 2030 | 7.29 | 15 | -5.22 | 4.62 – 9.96 |
| 2035 | 11.72 | 15 | -5.97 | 6.9 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 52.9bn | 6.4bn | 25.6bn – 33.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 63.9bn | 0 | 16.4bn – 31bn |
| 2030 | 17.8bn | 69.7bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 27.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 76.4bn | 0 | 0 – 14.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.39 | 6.86 | 1.92 | 3.94 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 9.07 | 0.51 | 3.9 – 5.67 |
| 2030 | 4.98 | 10.51 | 0 | 3.74 – 6.23 |
| 2035 | 5.14 | 12.95 | 0 | 3.12 – 7.16 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.3bn | 63.5bn | 15.1bn | 35bn – 43.6bn |
| 2028 | 35.9bn | 77.8bn | 0 | 27.7bn – 44bn |
| 2030 | 32.5bn | 86.5bn | 0 | 21.6bn – 43.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 100.4bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 39.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.04 | 8.94 | 5.13 | 6.63 – 7.44 |
| 2029 | 6.72 | 10.02 | 3.42 | 5.89 – 7.54 |
| 2031 | 6.39 | 10.65 | 2.13 | 5.23 – 7.56 |
| 2036 | 5.59 | 11.61 | 0 | 3.77 – 7.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ARG · API docs
