Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Argentina: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.43 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±2.9262 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Argentina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.82 | 4.48 | -6.12 | -1.92 – 0.28 |
| 2028 | -0.26 | 8.93 | -9.45 | -2.18 – 1.66 |
| 2030 | 0.3 | 12.16 | -11.56 | -2.2 – 2.8 |
| 2035 | 1.7 | 18.47 | -15.08 | -2 – 5.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.33 | 20.16 | 11.15 | 14.4 – 16.27 |
| 2028 | 14.89 | 23.25 | 7.64 | 12.98 – 16.8 |
| 2030 | 14.44 | 25.24 | 5.09 | 11.75 – 17.14 |
| 2035 | 13.33 | 28.6 | 0.1 | 9.02 – 17.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed683.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 697.9bn | 857.6bn | 559.6bn | 667.8bn – 728.1bn |
| 2028 | 742.9bn | 1T | 503.2bn | 674.3bn – 811.4bn |
| 2030 | 787.8bn | 1.1T | 478.3bn | 682.2bn – 893.3bn |
| 2035 | 900.1bn | 1.4T | 462.4bn | 695.9bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.43 | 12 | -10 | 2.87 – 9.99 |
| 2028 | 10.89 | 12 | -10 | 4.39 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.31 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 18.8k | 12.1k | 14.5k – 15.9k |
| 2028 | 16.1k | 22.3k | 10.8k | 14.6k – 17.6k |
| 2030 | 17k | 25k | 10.1k | 14.7k – 19.3k |
| 2035 | 19.3k | 30.6k | 9.6k | 14.9k – 23.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.82 | 149.38 | 10.33 | 73.53 – 96.11 |
| 2028 | 93.87 | 205.69 | 0 | 72.16 – 115.58 |
| 2030 | 102.92 | 247.27 | 0 | 72.48 – 133.36 |
| 2035 | 125.54 | 300 | 0 | 74.04 – 177.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.57 | 17.31 | 11.84 | 13.92 – 15.23 |
| 2028 | 14.11 | 18.84 | 9.37 | 12.7 – 15.51 |
| 2030 | 13.64 | 19.75 | 7.53 | 11.61 – 15.66 |
| 2035 | 12.46 | 21.1 | 3.83 | 9.15 – 15.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 37.05 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.74 | 19.08 | 12.85 | 15.01 – 16.47 |
| 2028 | 15.21 | 20.99 | 10.2 | 13.65 – 16.77 |
| 2030 | 14.68 | 22.14 | 8.21 | 12.44 – 16.92 |
| 2035 | 13.35 | 23.9 | 4.2 | 9.7 – 16.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.8m | 48m | 43.8m | 44.4m – 47.2m |
| 2028 | 46m | 48.2m | 44m | 42.6m – 49.4m |
| 2030 | 46.2m | 48.3m | 44.1m | 40.9m – 51.4m |
| 2035 | 46.6m | 48.8m | 44.5m | 36.9m – 56.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 11.2 | -1.85 | 2.75 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 5.52 | 15 | -4.18 | 3.64 – 7.4 |
| 2030 | 7.29 | 15 | -5.22 | 4.62 – 9.96 |
| 2035 | 11.72 | 15 | -5.97 | 6.9 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 52.9bn | 6.4bn | 25.6bn – 33.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 63.9bn | 0 | 16.4bn – 31bn |
| 2030 | 17.8bn | 69.7bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 27.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 76.4bn | 0 | 0 – 14.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.39 | 6.86 | 1.92 | 3.94 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 9.07 | 0.51 | 3.9 – 5.67 |
| 2030 | 4.98 | 10.51 | 0 | 3.74 – 6.23 |
| 2035 | 5.14 | 12.95 | 0 | 3.12 – 7.16 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.3bn | 63.5bn | 15.1bn | 35bn – 43.6bn |
| 2028 | 35.9bn | 77.8bn | 0 | 27.7bn – 44bn |
| 2030 | 32.5bn | 86.5bn | 0 | 21.6bn – 43.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 100.4bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 39.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.37 | 8.99 | 3.76 | 5.87 – 6.88 |
| 2028 | 4.83 | 9.36 | 0.3 | 3.91 – 5.76 |
| 2030 | 3.29 | 9.13 | 0 | 2.13 – 4.44 |
| 2035 | 0 | 8.27 | 0 | 0 – 1.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ARG · API docs
