Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Armenia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.5 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±2.1966 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Armenia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.42 | -1.36 | -11.48 | -7.55 – -5.28 |
| 2028 | -5.85 | 2.91 | -14.62 | -7.92 – -3.78 |
| 2030 | -5.29 | 6.03 | -16.6 | -8.02 – -2.56 |
| 2035 | -3.88 | 12.12 | -19.88 | -7.76 – 0.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.99 | 80.93 | 26.9 | 47.02 – 56.95 |
| 2028 | 59.76 | 109.89 | 16.31 | 49.73 – 69.79 |
| 2030 | 67.53 | 132.25 | 11.44 | 52.88 – 82.18 |
| 2035 | 86.96 | 150 | 7.63 | 59.97 – 113.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.5bn | 36bn | 27.7bn | 30.5bn – 32.6bn |
| 2028 | 37.3bn | 45bn | 30.7bn | 34.6bn – 40.1bn |
| 2030 | 43.1bn | 53bn | 34.6bn | 38.2bn – 48bn |
| 2035 | 57.7bn | 71.6bn | 45.5bn | 45.7bn – 69.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5 | 12 | -4.01 | 5.16 – 9.83 |
| 2028 | 8.29 | 12 | -10 | 4.06 – 12 |
| 2030 | 9.09 | 12 | -10 | 3.41 – 12 |
| 2035 | 11.07 | 12 | -10 | 2.31 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.2k | 11.6k | 8.9k | 9.8k – 10.5k |
| 2028 | 11.9k | 14.5k | 9.7k | 11k – 12.8k |
| 2030 | 13.7k | 17k | 10.8k | 12.1k – 15.2k |
| 2035 | 18.1k | 22.8k | 14k | 14.3k – 21.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.94 | 60.38 | 33.58 | 45.26 – 50.62 |
| 2028 | 45.82 | 67.37 | 20.95 | 40.3 – 51.33 |
| 2030 | 43.69 | 71.52 | 11.59 | 35.92 – 51.47 |
| 2035 | 38.39 | 77.74 | 0 | 26.19 – 50.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.79 | 80.99 | 30.6 | 51.05 – 60.54 |
| 2028 | 60.17 | 103.81 | 16.53 | 50.6 – 69.74 |
| 2030 | 64.55 | 120.88 | 8.21 | 50.76 – 78.33 |
| 2035 | 75.49 | 150 | 0 | 51.21 – 99.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.83 | 13.6 | -4.57 | 2.81 – 6.85 |
| 2028 | 9.08 | 24.28 | -5 | 5.28 – 12.89 |
| 2030 | 13.33 | 32.96 | -5 | 7.92 – 18.75 |
| 2035 | 23.97 | 50 | -5 | 13.98 – 33.95 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.75 | 24.75 | 19.16 | 20.98 – 22.53 |
| 2028 | 22.69 | 27.87 | 18.2 | 20.86 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 30.32 | 17.83 | 20.78 – 26.47 |
| 2035 | 25.97 | 35.43 | 17.77 | 20.46 – 31.47 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 3m – 3.2m |
| 2028 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3.1m | 2.8m – 3.6m |
| 2035 | 3.3m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 2.6m – 4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 15 | -10 | 1.47 – 8.83 |
| 2028 | 2.67 | 15 | -10 | -3.69 – 9.03 |
| 2030 | 0.19 | 15 | -10 | -7.93 – 8.31 |
| 2035 | -6.01 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 6.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 5.61 | 1.6 | 3.24 – 3.97 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 7.32 | 0.37 | 3.13 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 3.96 | 8.45 | 0 | 2.96 – 4.96 |
| 2035 | 4.05 | 10.4 | 0 | 2.43 – 5.67 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.82 | 14.15 | 9.49 | 11.27 – 12.37 |
| 2028 | 9.72 | 13.76 | 5.68 | 8.64 – 10.81 |
| 2030 | 7.62 | 12.83 | 2.4 | 6.21 – 9.03 |
| 2035 | 2.37 | 9.74 | 0 | 0.86 – 3.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ARM · API docs
