Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Armenia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 47/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.01 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±5.5952 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Armenia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.15 | -1.07 | -11.23 | -7.29 – -5.02 |
| 2029 | -6.46 | 2.34 | -15.26 | -8.57 – -4.36 |
| 2031 | -6.77 | 4.59 | -18.12 | -9.63 – -3.91 |
| 2036 | -7.54 | 8.52 | -23.6 | -12.02 – -3.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.99 | 80.93 | 26.9 | 47.02 – 56.95 |
| 2028 | 59.76 | 109.89 | 16.31 | 49.73 – 69.79 |
| 2030 | 67.53 | 132.25 | 11.44 | 52.88 – 82.18 |
| 2035 | 86.96 | 150 | 7.63 | 59.97 – 113.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34bn | 38.3bn | 30.3bn | 33bn – 35.1bn |
| 2029 | 39.6bn | 47bn | 33.1bn | 36.7bn – 42.5bn |
| 2031 | 45.1bn | 54.8bn | 36.8bn | 40bn – 50.3bn |
| 2036 | 59bn | 72.6bn | 47.3bn | 46.8bn – 71.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.01 | 12 | -2.07 | 3.57 – 6.45 |
| 2029 | 4.18 | 12 | -8.09 | 1.62 – 6.74 |
| 2031 | 3.35 | 12 | -10 | 0.04 – 6.67 |
| 2036 | 1.28 | 12 | -10 | -3.24 – 5.79 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11k | 12.5k | 9.8k | 10.7k – 11.4k |
| 2029 | 12.7k | 15.3k | 10.5k | 11.8k – 13.7k |
| 2031 | 14.4k | 17.7k | 11.6k | 12.8k – 16.1k |
| 2036 | 18.6k | 23.3k | 14.6k | 14.8k – 22.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.36 | 61.75 | 35.06 | 46.66 – 52.05 |
| 2029 | 46.87 | 68.34 | 22.1 | 41.32 – 52.43 |
| 2031 | 44.39 | 72.1 | 12.41 | 36.57 – 52.2 |
| 2036 | 38.18 | 77.37 | 0 | 26.04 – 50.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.79 | 80.99 | 30.6 | 51.05 – 60.54 |
| 2028 | 60.17 | 103.81 | 16.53 | 50.6 – 69.74 |
| 2030 | 64.55 | 120.88 | 8.21 | 50.76 – 78.33 |
| 2035 | 75.49 | 150 | 0 | 51.21 – 99.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.54 | 10.34 | -3.75 | 1.98 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 3.95 | 15.73 | -5 | 1.15 – 6.75 |
| 2031 | 4.36 | 19.57 | -5 | 0.64 – 8.08 |
| 2036 | 5.39 | 26.9 | -5 | -0.24 – 11.02 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.75 | 24.75 | 19.16 | 20.98 – 22.53 |
| 2028 | 22.69 | 27.87 | 18.2 | 20.86 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 30.32 | 17.83 | 20.78 – 26.47 |
| 2035 | 25.97 | 35.43 | 17.77 | 20.46 – 31.47 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.9m – 3.1m |
| 2029 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.8m – 3.2m |
| 2031 | 3m | 3.1m | 2.9m | 2.6m – 3.3m |
| 2036 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 15 | -10 | 1.47 – 8.83 |
| 2028 | 2.67 | 15 | -10 | -3.69 – 9.03 |
| 2030 | 0.19 | 15 | -10 | -7.93 – 8.31 |
| 2035 | -6.01 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 6.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 5.61 | 1.6 | 3.24 – 3.97 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 7.32 | 0.37 | 3.13 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 3.96 | 8.45 | 0 | 2.96 – 4.96 |
| 2035 | 4.05 | 10.4 | 0 | 2.43 – 5.67 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.37 | 14.11 | 10.62 | 11.9 – 12.83 |
| 2029 | 11.51 | 14.53 | 8.48 | 10.49 – 12.52 |
| 2031 | 10.65 | 14.55 | 6.74 | 9.2 – 12.09 |
| 2036 | 8.49 | 14.01 | 2.97 | 6.29 – 10.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ARM · API docs
