Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
American Samoa: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.23 for 2023.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2023: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±7.5042 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
American Samoa: forward projections across 6 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed46.96(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 44.32 | 59.09 | 31.53 | 41.51 – 47.14 |
| 2025 | 39.06 | 64.63 | 16.9 | 33.53 – 44.59 |
| 2027 | 33.79 | 66.8 | 5.19 | 26.37 – 41.21 |
| 2032 | 20.63 | 67.31 | 0 | 10.66 – 30.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed871m(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 912.8m | 1bn | 816.4m | 884.5m – 941.1m |
| 2025 | 1bn | 1.2bn | 850.1m | 941.8m – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.1bn | 1.4bn | 905.8m | 994m – 1.2bn |
| 2032 | 1.4bn | 1.7bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.23 | 12 | -8.59 | -0.68 – 3.13 |
| 2025 | 0.39 | 12 | -10 | -2.92 – 3.71 |
| 2027 | -0.44 | 12 | -10 | -4.74 – 3.86 |
| 2032 | -2.51 | 12 | -10 | -8.88 – 3.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19k | 21.3k | 17k | 18.4k – 19.6k |
| 2025 | 21.4k | 25.4k | 18k | 19.8k – 23k |
| 2027 | 23.9k | 29k | 19.4k | 21.2k – 26.6k |
| 2032 | 30k | 37.3k | 23.7k | 23.8k – 36.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.73(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 75.45 | 88.34 | 62.56 | 72.27 – 78.63 |
| 2025 | 70.9 | 93.22 | 48.58 | 64.08 – 77.72 |
| 2027 | 66.35 | 95.16 | 37.53 | 56.63 – 76.06 |
| 2032 | 54.96 | 95.72 | 14.21 | 39.93 – 70 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.2k | 48.4k | 44.2k | 44.8k – 47.7k |
| 2028 | 45.4k | 47.6k | 43.4k | 42.1k – 48.8k |
| 2030 | 44.6k | 46.7k | 42.7k | 39.6k – 49.7k |
| 2035 | 42.6k | 44.6k | 40.7k | 33.8k – 51.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ASM · API docs
