Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Antigua and Barbuda: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.33 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±6.0479 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Antigua and Barbuda: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-11.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -11.62 | -2.85 | -20.38 | -13.59 – -9.64 |
| 2029 | -11.25 | 3.93 | -26.43 | -14.89 – -7.61 |
| 2031 | -10.88 | 8.71 | -30 | -15.75 – -6.01 |
| 2036 | -9.97 | 17.74 | -30 | -17.22 – -2.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 51.6 | 75.14 | 31.19 | 47.41 – 55.78 |
| 2025 | 44.78 | 85.56 | 9.44 | 36.81 – 52.76 |
| 2027 | 37.97 | 90.62 | 0 | 27.41 – 48.53 |
| 2032 | 20.94 | 95.39 | 0 | 6.95 – 34.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 2.9bn | 2.2bn | 2.4bn – 2.6bn |
| 2029 | 2.7bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.5bn – 2.9bn |
| 2031 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.3bn |
| 2036 | 3.6bn | 4.8bn | 2.6bn | 2.8bn – 4.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.33 | 7.38 | -2.04 | 1.45 – 3.21 |
| 2029 | 1.51 | 10.25 | -6.07 | -0.02 – 3.04 |
| 2031 | 0.68 | 11.97 | -9.1 | -1.28 – 2.64 |
| 2036 | -1.38 | 12 | -10 | -4.26 – 1.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23k | 27.7k | 18.9k | 22k – 23.9k |
| 2029 | 24.2k | 32.4k | 17.1k | 22.1k – 26.4k |
| 2031 | 25.5k | 36.1k | 16.3k | 22.2k – 28.8k |
| 2036 | 28.7k | 43.6k | 15.7k | 22.3k – 35k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.86 | 78.48 | 47 | 60.59 – 67.13 |
| 2029 | 58.59 | 83.9 | 29.38 | 51.88 – 65.3 |
| 2031 | 53.32 | 85.99 | 15.61 | 44.02 – 62.61 |
| 2036 | 40.13 | 86.35 | 0 | 26.6 – 53.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.3(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 62.77 | 77.08 | 48.47 | 59.58 – 65.97 |
| 2025 | 61.72 | 86.5 | 36.94 | 54.96 – 68.48 |
| 2027 | 60.67 | 92.66 | 28.67 | 50.92 – 70.42 |
| 2032 | 58.03 | 103.28 | 12.79 | 41.82 – 74.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 10.65 | -4.16 | 1.86 – 5.14 |
| 2029 | 5.23 | 17.61 | -5 | 2.23 – 8.22 |
| 2031 | 6.95 | 22.94 | -5 | 2.85 – 11.05 |
| 2036 | 11.26 | 33.87 | -5 | 4.45 – 18.07 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed94.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 107k | 113.7k | 100.8k | 103.7k – 110.3k |
| 2029 | 120k | 131.6k | 109.2k | 111.1k – 128.9k |
| 2031 | 133k | 148k | 119k | 117.9k – 148k |
| 2036 | 165.4k | 186.6k | 145.6k | 131.1k – 199.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed378.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 378.2m | 504.1m | 252.2m | 352.8m – 403.5m |
| 2028 | 382.4m | 600.6m | 164.2m | 330.7m – 434.2m |
| 2030 | 386.7m | 668.4m | 105m | 312.6m – 460.7m |
| 2035 | 397.3m | 795.8m | 0 | 272.8m – 521.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.13 | 4.47 | 1.79 | 2.87 – 3.38 |
| 2028 | 3.27 | 5.6 | 0.95 | 2.76 – 3.79 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.34 | 0.35 | 2.62 – 4.07 |
| 2035 | 3.4 | 7.64 | 0 | 2.21 – 4.6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed378.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 378.2m | 504.1m | 252.2m | 352.8m – 403.5m |
| 2028 | 382.4m | 600.6m | 164.2m | 330.7m – 434.2m |
| 2030 | 386.7m | 668.4m | 105m | 312.6m – 460.7m |
| 2035 | 397.3m | 795.8m | 0 | 272.8m – 521.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ATG · API docs
