Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Australia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.1 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±2.9553 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Australia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.9 | -0.48 | -5.32 | -3.44 – -2.36 |
| 2029 | -4.11 | 0.08 | -8.3 | -5.16 – -3.05 |
| 2031 | -5.31 | 0.1 | -10.72 | -6.84 – -3.78 |
| 2036 | -8.32 | -0.67 | -15.98 | -11.22 – -5.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 27.76 | 19.88 | 22.56 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.12 | 31.43 | 17.79 | 21.92 – 26.32 |
| 2030 | 24.71 | 34.14 | 16.53 | 21.38 – 28.03 |
| 2035 | 26.17 | 39.51 | 14.6 | 20.08 – 32.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2.5T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2029 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 2T | 2.2T – 2.6T |
| 2031 | 2.7T | 3.2T | 2.1T | 2.4T – 3T |
| 2036 | 3.2T | 4T | 2.5T | 2.5T – 3.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1 | 5.19 | -0.58 | 1.55 – 2.65 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 7.6 | -2.38 | 1.25 – 3.25 |
| 2031 | 2.4 | 9.3 | -3.58 | 1.06 – 3.74 |
| 2036 | 2.78 | 12 | -5.68 | 0.71 – 4.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.8k | 87.8k | 69.2k | 75.4k – 80.3k |
| 2029 | 83.8k | 101.1k | 68.8k | 77.6k – 90k |
| 2031 | 89.7k | 112k | 70.4k | 79.5k – 99.9k |
| 2036 | 104.6k | 136.2k | 77.2k | 82.9k – 126.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.48 | 59.05 | 42.74 | 49.49 – 53.47 |
| 2029 | 53.23 | 66.35 | 38.1 | 48.66 – 57.81 |
| 2031 | 54.99 | 71.92 | 35.45 | 47.98 – 61.99 |
| 2036 | 59.38 | 83.32 | 31.74 | 46.19 – 72.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.82 | 19.89 | 22.03 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.25 | 28.39 | 18.11 | 21.35 – 25.15 |
| 2030 | 23.64 | 30.27 | 17.01 | 20.74 – 26.55 |
| 2035 | 24.63 | 34.01 | 15.25 | 19.25 – 30.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.54 | 8.79 | -0.01 | 3.53 – 5.56 |
| 2029 | 6.12 | 13.48 | -1.77 | 4.19 – 8.04 |
| 2031 | 7.69 | 17.2 | -2.49 | 4.97 – 10.42 |
| 2036 | 11.63 | 25.07 | -2.76 | 6.79 – 16.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.55 | 25.84 | 23.43 | 23.79 – 25.31 |
| 2028 | 25.11 | 27.35 | 23.16 | 23.25 – 26.96 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 28.56 | 23.15 | 22.75 – 28.58 |
| 2035 | 27.05 | 31.15 | 23.51 | 21.44 – 32.67 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28m | 29.3m | 26.7m | 27.1m – 28.8m |
| 2029 | 28.5m | 29.8m | 27.2m | 26.4m – 30.6m |
| 2031 | 29m | 30.3m | 27.7m | 25.7m – 32.3m |
| 2036 | 30.2m | 31.7m | 28.9m | 24m – 36.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.03 | 3.43 | -2.63 | -0.48 – 0.42 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 5.82 | -4.68 | -0.97 – 0.62 |
| 2030 | -0.32 | 7.42 | -6.13 | -1.37 – 0.73 |
| 2035 | -0.69 | 10.27 | -8.9 | -2.21 – 0.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.6bn | 81.2bn | 46.1bn | 59.9bn – 67.3bn |
| 2028 | 67.7bn | 98.1bn | 37.3bn | 59.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2030 | 71.7bn | 111bn | 32.5bn | 60bn – 83.5bn |
| 2035 | 81.9bn | 137.4bn | 26.4bn | 60.3bn – 103.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 2.13 | 1.07 | 1.49 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.62 | 2.53 | 0.7 | 1.4 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 1.62 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 1.31 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 3.3 | 0 | 1.11 – 2.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5bn | 93.9bn | 57.1bn | 71.5bn – 79.5bn |
| 2028 | 83bn | 114.9bn | 51.1bn | 74.1bn – 91.8bn |
| 2030 | 90.4bn | 131.6bn | 49.3bn | 76.9bn – 104bn |
| 2035 | 109.1bn | 167.4bn | 50.9bn | 82.8bn – 135.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.12 | 5.25 | 2.99 | 3.88 – 4.36 |
| 2029 | 3.96 | 5.92 | 2.01 | 3.48 – 4.45 |
| 2031 | 3.81 | 6.33 | 1.29 | 3.12 – 4.5 |
| 2036 | 3.41 | 6.98 | 0 | 2.32 – 4.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AUS · API docs
