Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Australia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.75 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1482 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Australia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.82 | 0.28 | -5.92 | -3.5 – -2.14 |
| 2028 | -3.26 | 2.11 | -8.63 | -4.51 – -2.01 |
| 2030 | -3.7 | 3.23 | -10.63 | -5.41 – -1.99 |
| 2035 | -4.8 | 5 | -14.61 | -7.57 – -2.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 27.76 | 19.88 | 22.56 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.12 | 31.43 | 17.79 | 21.92 – 26.32 |
| 2030 | 24.71 | 34.14 | 16.53 | 21.38 – 28.03 |
| 2035 | 26.17 | 39.51 | 14.6 | 20.08 – 32.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8T | 2T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 1.9T |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.6T | 1.8T – 2.1T |
| 2030 | 2T | 2.5T | 1.6T | 1.8T – 2.3T |
| 2035 | 2.3T | 2.9T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.75 | 4.33 | -2.35 | 0.14 – 1.36 |
| 2028 | -0.53 | 5.67 | -5.9 | -1.61 – 0.55 |
| 2030 | -1.81 | 6.2 | -8.74 | -3.29 – -0.33 |
| 2035 | -5.01 | 6.31 | -10 | -7.69 – -2.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.5k | 73.6k | 58.5k | 63.5k – 67.6k |
| 2028 | 66.9k | 80.9k | 54.8k | 62k – 71.9k |
| 2030 | 68.3k | 86.4k | 52.6k | 60.5k – 76.1k |
| 2035 | 71.8k | 97.3k | 49.6k | 56.9k – 86.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.23 | 60.75 | 44.56 | 51.23 – 55.24 |
| 2028 | 55.9 | 68.91 | 40.88 | 51.21 – 60.58 |
| 2030 | 58.56 | 75.36 | 39.18 | 51.29 – 65.83 |
| 2035 | 65.23 | 88.99 | 37.81 | 51.14 – 79.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.82 | 19.89 | 22.03 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.25 | 28.39 | 18.11 | 21.35 – 25.15 |
| 2030 | 23.64 | 30.27 | 17.01 | 20.74 – 26.55 |
| 2035 | 24.63 | 34.01 | 15.25 | 19.25 – 30.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.97 | 7.43 | -1.81 | 1.93 – 4 |
| 2028 | 2.56 | 10.28 | -5 | 0.72 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 2.15 | 12.12 | -5 | -0.23 – 4.53 |
| 2035 | 1.12 | 15.23 | -5 | -2.18 – 4.43 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.55 | 25.84 | 23.43 | 23.79 – 25.31 |
| 2028 | 25.11 | 27.35 | 23.16 | 23.25 – 26.96 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 28.56 | 23.15 | 22.75 – 28.58 |
| 2035 | 27.05 | 31.15 | 23.51 | 21.44 – 32.67 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.5m | 28.8m | 26.3m | 26.6m – 28.3m |
| 2028 | 27.9m | 29.3m | 26.7m | 25.9m – 30m |
| 2030 | 28.4m | 29.7m | 27.1m | 25.2m – 31.6m |
| 2035 | 29.6m | 30.9m | 28.3m | 23.4m – 35.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.03 | 3.43 | -2.63 | -0.48 – 0.42 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 5.82 | -4.68 | -0.97 – 0.62 |
| 2030 | -0.32 | 7.42 | -6.13 | -1.37 – 0.73 |
| 2035 | -0.69 | 10.27 | -8.9 | -2.21 – 0.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.6bn | 81.2bn | 46.1bn | 59.9bn – 67.3bn |
| 2028 | 67.7bn | 98.1bn | 37.3bn | 59.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2030 | 71.7bn | 111bn | 32.5bn | 60bn – 83.5bn |
| 2035 | 81.9bn | 137.4bn | 26.4bn | 60.3bn – 103.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 2.12 | 1.07 | 1.49 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.61 | 2.53 | 0.7 | 1.4 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 1.62 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 1.31 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 3.3 | 0 | 1.11 – 2.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5bn | 93.9bn | 57.1bn | 71.5bn – 79.5bn |
| 2028 | 83bn | 114.9bn | 51.1bn | 74.1bn – 91.8bn |
| 2030 | 90.4bn | 131.6bn | 49.3bn | 76.9bn – 104bn |
| 2035 | 109.1bn | 167.4bn | 50.9bn | 82.8bn – 135.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 5.08 | 2.25 | 3.39 – 3.94 |
| 2028 | 2.82 | 5.27 | 0.37 | 2.31 – 3.33 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 5.13 | 0 | 1.33 – 2.61 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.47 | 0 | 0 – 0.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AUS · API docs
