Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Austria: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.17 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.473 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Austria: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.86 | 4.5 | -2.77 | 0.1 – 1.62 |
| 2028 | 0.59 | 6.89 | -5.71 | -0.74 – 1.92 |
| 2030 | 0.32 | 8.45 | -7.82 | -1.42 – 2.06 |
| 2035 | -0.37 | 11.13 | -11.87 | -2.88 – 2.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.91 | 62.17 | 48.62 | 53 – 56.83 |
| 2028 | 55.34 | 67.91 | 44.44 | 50.89 – 59.79 |
| 2030 | 55.76 | 72 | 41.7 | 48.98 – 62.55 |
| 2035 | 56.83 | 79.79 | 36.93 | 44.46 – 69.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 601.8bn | 653.6bn | 557bn | 583.2bn – 620.5bn |
| 2028 | 657.4bn | 747bn | 579.7bn | 608.7bn – 706bn |
| 2030 | 712.9bn | 828.6bn | 612.6bn | 632bn – 793.8bn |
| 2035 | 851.7bn | 1T | 709.9bn | 675.1bn – 1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.17 | 12 | -8.99 | -0.8 – 3.15 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 12 | -10 | -1.2 – 5.79 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 12 | -10 | -1.22 – 8.07 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 12 | -10 | -0.94 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.1k | 70.8k | 60.1k | 63k – 67.1k |
| 2028 | 70.4k | 80.3k | 61.8k | 65.2k – 75.6k |
| 2030 | 75.7k | 88.5k | 64.6k | 67.1k – 84.3k |
| 2035 | 89.1k | 107.2k | 73.4k | 70.6k – 107.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.84 | 4.73 | 0.82 | 2.33 – 3.35 |
| 2029 | 2.16 | 5.42 | 0 | 1.25 – 3.07 |
| 2031 | 1.83 | 6.04 | 0 | 0.64 – 3.01 |
| 2036 | 1.56 | 7.52 | 0 | 0 – 3.28 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 80.57 | 89.62 | 70.13 | 77.89 – 83.25 |
| 2028 | 80.7 | 96.37 | 62.62 | 74.42 – 86.99 |
| 2030 | 80.84 | 101.07 | 57.49 | 71.26 – 90.42 |
| 2035 | 81.17 | 109.79 | 48.16 | 63.78 – 98.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.72 | 61.96 | 43.48 | 50.46 – 54.98 |
| 2028 | 53.53 | 69.54 | 37.52 | 48.51 – 58.55 |
| 2030 | 54.34 | 75 | 33.67 | 46.82 – 61.85 |
| 2035 | 56.35 | 85.58 | 27.12 | 42.86 – 69.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 11.15 | -3.3 | 2.56 – 5.78 |
| 2028 | 5 | 17.08 | -5 | 2.08 – 7.92 |
| 2030 | 5.82 | 21.42 | -5 | 1.9 – 9.75 |
| 2035 | 7.88 | 29.95 | -5 | 1.73 – 14.04 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.16 | 9.7 | -3.84 | 1.66 – 4.66 |
| 2029 | 3.42 | 14.74 | -5 | 0.74 – 6.09 |
| 2031 | 3.51 | 18.13 | -5 | -0.01 – 7.03 |
| 2036 | 3.56 | 24.24 | -5 | -1.6 – 8.71 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.18 | 24.56 | 21.98 | 22.46 – 23.9 |
| 2028 | 22.34 | 24.73 | 20.26 | 20.69 – 23.99 |
| 2030 | 21.49 | 24.59 | 18.81 | 19.05 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 19.38 | 23.76 | 15.59 | 15.36 – 23.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.9m – 9.5m |
| 2028 | 9.2m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.5m – 9.9m |
| 2030 | 9.3m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.2m – 10.3m |
| 2035 | 9.3m | 9.8m | 8.9m | 7.4m – 11.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1 | 13.37 | -8.1 | -0.45 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 0.94 | 15 | -10 | -1.77 – 3.64 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 0.37 | 15 | -10 | -4.64 – 5.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.7bn | 19.2bn | 8.2bn | 12.6bn – 14.7bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 22.4bn | 3.4bn | 10.8bn – 14.9bn |
| 2030 | 12bn | 24.3bn | 0 | 9.2bn – 14.9bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 27.4bn | 0 | 5.8bn – 14.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.64 | 2.16 | 1.12 | 1.53 – 1.74 |
| 2028 | 1.45 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 1.24 – 1.65 |
| 2030 | 1.35 | 2.51 | 0.2 | 1.07 – 1.64 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.91 | 0 | 0.82 – 1.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.4bn | 69.7bn | 45.1bn | 54.6bn – 60.2bn |
| 2028 | 67.8bn | 89.1bn | 46.6bn | 61.3bn – 74.4bn |
| 2030 | 78.3bn | 105.8bn | 50.8bn | 67.8bn – 88.7bn |
| 2035 | 104.3bn | 143.2bn | 65.5bn | 81.7bn – 127bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.54 | 7.27 | 3.8 | 5.18 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 8.45 | 2.44 | 4.72 – 6.17 |
| 2030 | 5.35 | 9.24 | 1.47 | 4.33 – 6.38 |
| 2035 | 5.12 | 10.62 | 0 | 3.46 – 6.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AUT · API docs
