Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Austria: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.8 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±5.5541 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Austria: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.12 | 3.54 | -3.31 | -0.6 – 0.83 |
| 2029 | -0.45 | 5.48 | -6.38 | -1.7 – 0.81 |
| 2031 | -1.01 | 6.64 | -8.66 | -2.65 – 0.63 |
| 2036 | -2.42 | 8.4 | -13.25 | -5.02 – 0.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.91 | 62.17 | 48.62 | 53 – 56.83 |
| 2028 | 55.34 | 67.91 | 44.44 | 50.89 – 59.79 |
| 2030 | 55.76 | 72 | 41.7 | 48.98 – 62.55 |
| 2035 | 56.83 | 79.79 | 36.93 | 44.46 – 69.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 649.3bn | 698bn | 607.2bn | 629.2bn – 669.5bn |
| 2029 | 714.2bn | 798.4bn | 641.2bn | 661.3bn – 767bn |
| 2031 | 779bn | 887.7bn | 684.8bn | 690.5bn – 867.4bn |
| 2036 | 941bn | 1.1T | 807.8bn | 745.8bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.8 | 6.41 | -4.06 | -0.15 – 1.75 |
| 2029 | 0.88 | 10.59 | -7.54 | -0.79 – 2.54 |
| 2031 | 0.96 | 12 | -9.91 | -1.21 – 3.13 |
| 2036 | 1.15 | 12 | -10 | -1.99 – 4.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70.3k | 75.8k | 65.6k | 68.1k – 72.5k |
| 2029 | 76.9k | 86.4k | 68.7k | 71.2k – 82.6k |
| 2031 | 83.5k | 95.7k | 72.9k | 74k – 93k |
| 2036 | 99.9k | 117.2k | 84.9k | 79.2k – 120.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.69 | 4.58 | 0.67 | 2.18 – 3.2 |
| 2029 | 2.08 | 5.35 | 0 | 1.17 – 2.98 |
| 2031 | 1.77 | 6 | 0 | 0.59 – 2.96 |
| 2036 | 1.53 | 7.51 | 0 | 0 – 3.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 82.64 | 91.36 | 72.58 | 79.97 – 85.3 |
| 2029 | 83.71 | 98.81 | 66.29 | 77.37 – 90.06 |
| 2031 | 84.79 | 104.28 | 62.3 | 75.01 – 94.57 |
| 2036 | 87.48 | 115.05 | 55.67 | 69.24 – 105.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.72 | 61.96 | 43.48 | 50.46 – 54.98 |
| 2028 | 53.53 | 69.54 | 37.52 | 48.51 – 58.55 |
| 2030 | 54.34 | 75 | 33.67 | 46.82 – 61.85 |
| 2035 | 56.35 | 85.58 | 27.12 | 42.86 – 69.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.16 | 9.14 | -5 | 0.58 – 3.74 |
| 2029 | 0.72 | 12.81 | -5 | -2.01 – 3.45 |
| 2031 | -0.72 | 14.89 | -5 | -4.26 – 2.82 |
| 2036 | -4.31 | 17.76 | -5 | -5 – 1.27 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.97 | 9.53 | -4.06 | 1.47 – 4.47 |
| 2029 | 3.33 | 14.7 | -5 | 0.65 – 6.01 |
| 2031 | 3.46 | 18.13 | -5 | -0.07 – 6.99 |
| 2036 | 3.52 | 24.28 | -5 | -1.64 – 8.69 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.18 | 24.56 | 21.98 | 22.46 – 23.9 |
| 2028 | 22.34 | 24.73 | 20.26 | 20.69 – 23.99 |
| 2030 | 21.49 | 24.59 | 18.81 | 19.05 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 19.38 | 23.76 | 15.59 | 15.36 – 23.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.9m – 9.5m |
| 2029 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.5m – 9.9m |
| 2031 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.1m – 10.2m |
| 2036 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 7.3m – 11.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1 | 13.37 | -8.1 | -0.45 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 0.94 | 15 | -10 | -1.77 – 3.64 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 0.37 | 15 | -10 | -4.64 – 5.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.7bn | 19.2bn | 8.2bn | 12.6bn – 14.7bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 22.4bn | 3.4bn | 10.8bn – 14.9bn |
| 2030 | 12bn | 24.3bn | 0 | 9.2bn – 14.9bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 27.4bn | 0 | 5.8bn – 14.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.64 | 2.16 | 1.12 | 1.53 – 1.74 |
| 2028 | 1.45 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 1.24 – 1.65 |
| 2030 | 1.35 | 2.51 | 0.2 | 1.07 – 1.64 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.91 | 0 | 0.82 – 1.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.4bn | 69.7bn | 45.1bn | 54.6bn – 60.2bn |
| 2028 | 67.8bn | 89.1bn | 46.6bn | 61.3bn – 74.4bn |
| 2030 | 78.3bn | 105.8bn | 50.8bn | 67.8bn – 88.7bn |
| 2035 | 104.3bn | 143.2bn | 65.5bn | 81.7bn – 127bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.64 | 6.96 | 4.32 | 5.35 – 5.93 |
| 2029 | 5.52 | 7.81 | 3.23 | 4.91 – 6.14 |
| 2031 | 5.4 | 8.36 | 2.45 | 4.52 – 6.29 |
| 2036 | 5.1 | 9.28 | 0.92 | 3.65 – 6.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AUT · API docs
