Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Azerbaijan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±6.6808 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Azerbaijan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed9.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.58 | 30 | -13.04 | 4.81 – 14.34 |
| 2029 | 9.33 | 30 | -29.84 | 0.88 – 17.77 |
| 2031 | 9.08 | 30 | -30 | -1.97 – 20.12 |
| 2036 | 8.45 | 30 | -30 | -7.5 – 24.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.55 | 62.42 | 25.32 | 39.03 – 46.07 |
| 2028 | 41.6 | 76.02 | 11.76 | 34.68 – 48.51 |
| 2030 | 40.64 | 85.09 | 2.12 | 31.04 – 50.25 |
| 2035 | 38.27 | 101.12 | 0 | 23.16 – 53.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 80.8bn | 101.4bn | 62.9bn | 77.1bn – 84.6bn |
| 2029 | 87.2bn | 123bn | 56.3bn | 78.8bn – 95.7bn |
| 2031 | 93.7bn | 139.8bn | 53.7bn | 80.7bn – 106.6bn |
| 2036 | 109.7bn | 174.9bn | 53.2bn | 84.4bn – 135bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.39 | 6.14 | -2.72 | 0.58 – 2.2 |
| 2029 | -0.35 | 7.87 | -7.47 | -1.76 – 1.07 |
| 2031 | -2.08 | 8.53 | -10 | -4.02 – -0.15 |
| 2036 | -6.42 | 8.58 | -10 | -9.95 – -2.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.7k | 9.7k | 5.9k | 7.3k – 8k |
| 2029 | 8.2k | 11.8k | 5.1k | 7.4k – 9k |
| 2031 | 8.7k | 13.3k | 4.7k | 7.5k – 10k |
| 2036 | 10k | 16.5k | 4.4k | 7.6k – 12.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20 | 27.58 | 11.25 | 18.51 – 21.48 |
| 2029 | 19.99 | 33.12 | 4.83 | 17.01 – 22.97 |
| 2031 | 19.98 | 36.94 | 0.41 | 15.77 – 24.19 |
| 2036 | 19.96 | 43.94 | 0 | 13.07 – 26.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.64 | 44.54 | 28.74 | 34.85 – 38.44 |
| 2028 | 36.31 | 50 | 22.62 | 32.47 – 40.15 |
| 2030 | 35.98 | 53.65 | 18.31 | 30.39 – 41.56 |
| 2035 | 35.15 | 60.14 | 10.15 | 25.7 – 44.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.05 | 16.49 | -5 | 3.63 – 8.46 |
| 2029 | 6.57 | 24.67 | -5 | 2.25 – 10.9 |
| 2031 | 7.1 | 30.46 | -5 | 1.36 – 12.85 |
| 2036 | 8.43 | 41.46 | -5 | -0.25 – 17.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.76 | 24.28 | 10.24 | 15.42 – 18.1 |
| 2028 | 17.46 | 30.49 | 6.17 | 14.76 – 20.16 |
| 2030 | 18.16 | 34.98 | 3.58 | 14.31 – 22.02 |
| 2035 | 19.92 | 43.71 | 0 | 13.33 – 26.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.5m | 11m | 10m | 10.2m – 10.8m |
| 2029 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 10m – 11.6m |
| 2031 | 11.1m | 11.6m | 10.6m | 9.8m – 12.3m |
| 2036 | 11.7m | 12.3m | 11.2m | 9.3m – 14.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 15 | -10 | -0.97 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 1.34 | 15 | -10 | -2.36 – 5.05 |
| 2030 | 1.53 | 15 | -10 | -3.29 – 6.36 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 15 | -10 | -4.96 – 8.98 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 16.6bn | 11.7bn | 13.5bn – 14.8bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.2bn |
| 2030 | 17.3bn | 22.9bn | 11.8bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 29.1bn | 13.5bn | 16.7bn – 25.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.85 | 6 | 3.7 | 4.59 – 5.1 |
| 2028 | 4.72 | 6.71 | 2.73 | 4.19 – 5.25 |
| 2030 | 4.66 | 7.23 | 2.09 | 3.89 – 5.43 |
| 2035 | 4.61 | 8.25 | 0.97 | 3.32 – 5.91 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 16.6bn | 11.7bn | 13.5bn – 14.8bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.2bn |
| 2030 | 17.3bn | 22.9bn | 11.8bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 29.1bn | 13.5bn | 16.7bn – 25.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.18 | 5.46 | 4.9 | 5.02 – 5.34 |
| 2029 | 4.93 | 5.42 | 4.44 | 4.57 – 5.3 |
| 2031 | 4.69 | 5.32 | 4.06 | 4.16 – 5.22 |
| 2036 | 4.08 | 4.97 | 3.19 | 3.23 – 4.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AZE · API docs
