Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Azerbaijan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4562 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Azerbaijan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed9.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.33 | 27.8 | -17.14 | 0.66 – 10 |
| 2028 | 4.99 | 30 | -30 | -3.2 – 13.17 |
| 2030 | 4.64 | 30 | -30 | -5.98 – 15.27 |
| 2035 | 3.79 | 30 | -30 | -11.32 – 18.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.55 | 62.42 | 25.32 | 39.03 – 46.07 |
| 2028 | 41.6 | 76.02 | 11.76 | 34.68 – 48.51 |
| 2030 | 40.64 | 85.09 | 2.12 | 31.04 – 50.25 |
| 2035 | 38.27 | 101.12 | 0 | 23.16 – 53.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.8bn | 97.5bn | 58.9bn | 73.1bn – 80.5bn |
| 2028 | 80.3bn | 116.2bn | 49.2bn | 72.1bn – 88.4bn |
| 2030 | 83.7bn | 130.1bn | 43.6bn | 71.5bn – 95.9bn |
| 2035 | 92.4bn | 157.9bn | 35.6bn | 69.8bn – 115bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.74 | 11.91 | -7.07 | 0.02 – 3.47 |
| 2028 | 2.25 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 5.29 |
| 2030 | 2.75 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 6.76 |
| 2035 | 4.01 | 12 | -10 | -1.99 – 10.02 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5k | 9.5k | 5.7k | 7.1k – 7.9k |
| 2028 | 7.8k | 11.4k | 4.7k | 7k – 8.6k |
| 2030 | 8.1k | 12.7k | 4.1k | 6.9k – 9.3k |
| 2035 | 8.9k | 15.4k | 3.3k | 6.7k – 11.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.15 | 27.84 | 11.28 | 18.65 – 21.66 |
| 2028 | 20.25 | 33.57 | 4.89 | 17.23 – 23.27 |
| 2030 | 20.36 | 37.54 | 0.53 | 16.08 – 24.63 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 44.92 | 0 | 13.58 – 27.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.64 | 44.54 | 28.74 | 34.85 – 38.44 |
| 2028 | 36.31 | 50 | 22.62 | 32.47 – 40.15 |
| 2030 | 35.98 | 53.65 | 18.31 | 30.39 – 41.56 |
| 2035 | 35.15 | 60.14 | 10.15 | 25.7 – 44.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.65 | 18.61 | -4.1 | 5.09 – 10.2 |
| 2028 | 12.42 | 31.41 | -5 | 7.61 – 17.23 |
| 2030 | 17.19 | 41.71 | -5 | 10.38 – 24 |
| 2035 | 29.13 | 50 | -5 | 16.78 – 41.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.76 | 24.28 | 10.24 | 15.42 – 18.1 |
| 2028 | 17.46 | 30.49 | 6.17 | 14.76 – 20.16 |
| 2030 | 18.16 | 34.98 | 3.58 | 14.31 – 22.02 |
| 2035 | 19.92 | 43.71 | 0 | 13.33 – 26.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.2m | 10.7m | 9.8m | 9.9m – 10.6m |
| 2028 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.8m | 9.5m – 11m |
| 2030 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.9m | 9.2m – 11.5m |
| 2035 | 10.5m | 11m | 10m | 8.3m – 12.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 15 | -10 | -0.97 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 1.34 | 15 | -10 | -2.36 – 5.05 |
| 2030 | 1.53 | 15 | -10 | -3.29 – 6.36 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 15 | -10 | -4.96 – 8.98 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 16.6bn | 11.7bn | 13.5bn – 14.8bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.2bn |
| 2030 | 17.3bn | 22.9bn | 11.8bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 29.1bn | 13.5bn | 16.7bn – 25.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.85 | 6 | 3.7 | 4.59 – 5.1 |
| 2028 | 4.72 | 6.71 | 2.73 | 4.19 – 5.25 |
| 2030 | 4.66 | 7.23 | 2.09 | 3.89 – 5.43 |
| 2035 | 4.61 | 8.25 | 0.97 | 3.32 – 5.91 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 16.6bn | 11.7bn | 13.5bn – 14.8bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.2bn |
| 2030 | 17.3bn | 22.9bn | 11.8bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 29.1bn | 13.5bn | 16.7bn – 25.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.17 | 6.04 | 4.29 | 4.95 – 5.38 |
| 2028 | 4.59 | 6.1 | 3.08 | 4.14 – 5.04 |
| 2030 | 4.01 | 5.97 | 2.06 | 3.39 – 4.63 |
| 2035 | 2.57 | 5.33 | 0 | 1.74 – 3.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AZE · API docs
