Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
AZQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.75 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1493 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
AZQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.92 | -0.12 | -5.71 | -3.53 – -2.3 |
| 2028 | -3.35 | 1.5 | -8.2 | -4.5 – -2.2 |
| 2030 | -3.78 | 2.47 | -10.04 | -5.36 – -2.2 |
| 2035 | -4.87 | 3.98 | -13.72 | -7.45 – -2.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.2T |
| 2028 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.6T |
| 2035 | 2.7T | 3.4T | 2T | 2.1T – 3.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 8.95 | -4.49 | 0.52 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 1.63 | 12 | -9.19 | -0.53 – 3.78 |
| 2030 | 1.5 | 12 | -10 | -1.3 – 4.3 |
| 2035 | 1.19 | 12 | -10 | -2.8 – 5.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.2k | 72.3k | 57.1k | 62.2k – 66.1k |
| 2028 | 66k | 80k | 53.7k | 61.1k – 70.8k |
| 2030 | 67.8k | 85.9k | 52k | 60.1k – 75.5k |
| 2035 | 72.3k | 98k | 50k | 57.3k – 87.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.83 | 61.06 | 45.5 | 51.86 – 55.81 |
| 2028 | 56.9 | 69.42 | 42.46 | 52.25 – 61.56 |
| 2030 | 59.97 | 76.13 | 41.33 | 52.69 – 67.26 |
| 2035 | 67.65 | 90.5 | 41.27 | 53.31 – 81.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.85 | 7.31 | -1.93 | 1.82 – 3.89 |
| 2028 | 2.29 | 10.02 | -5 | 0.47 – 4.11 |
| 2030 | 1.73 | 11.71 | -5 | -0.62 – 4.08 |
| 2035 | 0.33 | 14.45 | -5 | -2.96 – 3.62 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.4m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.9m | 34.4m | 31.4m | 31.9m – 33.9m |
| 2028 | 33.3m | 34.9m | 31.8m | 30.8m – 35.8m |
| 2030 | 33.7m | 35.3m | 32.2m | 29.9m – 37.5m |
| 2035 | 34.7m | 36.4m | 33.2m | 27.5m – 42m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AZQ · API docs
