Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
AZQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.14 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
AZQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.04 | -0.83 | -5.26 | -3.54 – -2.54 |
| 2029 | -4.13 | -0.3 | -7.96 | -5.11 – -3.15 |
| 2031 | -5.22 | -0.28 | -10.16 | -6.65 – -3.79 |
| 2036 | -7.94 | -0.95 | -14.93 | -10.64 – -5.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5T | 2.8T | 2.3T | 2.4T – 2.6T |
| 2029 | 2.7T | 3.2T | 2.3T | 2.5T – 2.9T |
| 2031 | 3T | 3.6T | 2.4T | 2.6T – 3.3T |
| 2036 | 3.5T | 4.4T | 2.8T | 2.8T – 4.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.14 | 4.41 | 0.17 | 1.72 – 2.55 |
| 2029 | 2.33 | 6.27 | -1.08 | 1.57 – 3.1 |
| 2031 | 2.53 | 7.61 | -1.87 | 1.48 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | 3.02 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 1.34 – 4.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.9k | 83k | 66k | 71.6k – 76.2k |
| 2029 | 79.3k | 95k | 65.6k | 73.4k – 85.1k |
| 2031 | 84.7k | 105k | 67.1k | 75k – 94.3k |
| 2036 | 98.1k | 126.8k | 73.2k | 77.8k – 118.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.47 | 59.72 | 44.09 | 50.51 – 54.42 |
| 2029 | 54.8 | 67.37 | 40.3 | 50.24 – 59.37 |
| 2031 | 57.14 | 73.36 | 38.42 | 50.07 – 64.2 |
| 2036 | 62.97 | 85.92 | 36.5 | 49.37 – 76.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.39 | 8.65 | -0.18 | 3.37 – 5.4 |
| 2029 | 5.79 | 13.17 | -2.12 | 3.87 – 7.7 |
| 2031 | 7.19 | 16.71 | -3.02 | 4.5 – 9.87 |
| 2036 | 10.69 | 24.16 | -3.75 | 5.99 – 15.38 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.4m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.3m | 34.9m | 31.8m | 32.3m – 34.3m |
| 2029 | 33.7m | 35.3m | 32.2m | 31.2m – 36.2m |
| 2031 | 34.1m | 35.8m | 32.6m | 30.3m – 38m |
| 2036 | 35.2m | 36.8m | 33.6m | 27.9m – 42.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/AZQ · API docs
