Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Burundi: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.72 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±0.922 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Burundi: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.54 | 0.36 | -11.44 | -6.83 – -4.25 |
| 2028 | -4.43 | 5.8 | -14.65 | -6.72 – -2.13 |
| 2030 | -3.31 | 9.89 | -16.51 | -6.27 – -0.35 |
| 2035 | -0.52 | 18.15 | -19.18 | -4.49 – 3.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 4.5bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4.6bn | 1.2bn | 2.3bn – 3.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 1.5bn – 2.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.72 | 7.37 | 2.42 | 4.2 – 5.24 |
| 2028 | 5.84 | 10.43 | 1.86 | 4.79 – 6.88 |
| 2030 | 6.95 | 12 | 1.82 | 5.41 – 8.5 |
| 2035 | 9.74 | 12 | 2.48 | 6.79 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed233.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 220.33 | 282.53 | 166.42 | 209.4 – 231.26 |
| 2028 | 191.32 | 299.06 | 97.96 | 169.32 – 213.33 |
| 2030 | 162.32 | 301.4 | 41.79 | 132.78 – 191.86 |
| 2035 | 89.81 | 286.5 | 0 | 52.03 – 127.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.57 | 54.42 | 26.74 | 38.92 – 44.21 |
| 2028 | 42.3 | 64.56 | 16.62 | 36.85 – 47.76 |
| 2030 | 43.04 | 71.78 | 9.88 | 35.17 – 50.9 |
| 2035 | 44.87 | 85.52 | 0 | 31.44 – 58.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 50 | 23.99 | 36.05 – 43.95 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | 22.27 | 41.86 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 14.21 | 38.59 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -0.62 | 31.53 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.3m | 15m | 13.7m | 13.8m – 14.7m |
| 2028 | 14.7m | 15.4m | 14m | 13.6m – 15.8m |
| 2030 | 15m | 15.8m | 14.4m | 13.3m – 16.8m |
| 2035 | 16m | 16.7m | 15.3m | 12.7m – 19.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.23 | 4.06 | -0.88 | 0.86 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 7.21 | -1.34 | 1.6 – 3.04 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 9.72 | -1.32 | 2.35 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 6.12 | 15 | -0.57 | 4.03 – 8.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed88.4m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 87.8m | 254.1m | 0 | 60.9m – 114.6m |
| 2026 | 82.8m | 370.8m | 0 | 34.7m – 130.8m |
| 2028 | 77.8m | 449.5m | 0 | 14.6m – 140.9m |
| 2033 | 65.2m | 591m | 0 | 0 – 156.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.01 | 2.92 | 0 | 0.7 – 1.32 |
| 2026 | 1.34 | 4.65 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.91 |
| 2028 | 1.49 | 5.78 | 0 | 0.72 – 2.27 |
| 2033 | 1.62 | 7.68 | 0 | 0.44 – 2.81 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.3m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 89.8m | 256m | 0 | 63m – 116.7m |
| 2026 | 85m | 372.8m | 0 | 36.8m – 133.1m |
| 2028 | 80.1m | 451.7m | 0 | 16.8m – 143.4m |
| 2033 | 68m | 593.5m | 0 | 0 – 159.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.69 | 0.84 – 0.94 |
| 2028 | 0.82 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.72 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | 0.76 | 1.19 | 0.32 | 0.61 – 0.9 |
| 2035 | 0.59 | 1.21 | 0 | 0.34 – 0.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BDI · API docs
