Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Burundi: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.79 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.38) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±3.2717 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Burundi: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.52 | 1.38 | -10.42 | -5.8 – -3.24 |
| 2029 | -2.56 | 7.66 | -12.79 | -4.77 – -0.35 |
| 2031 | -0.61 | 12.59 | -13.81 | -3.38 – 2.17 |
| 2036 | 4.29 | 22.95 | -14.38 | -0.21 – 8.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.9bn | 12.5bn | 5.9bn | 8.4bn – 9.5bn |
| 2029 | 11bn | 17.1bn | 5.7bn | 9.7bn – 12.3bn |
| 2031 | 13.1bn | 21bn | 6.2bn | 11.1bn – 15.1bn |
| 2036 | 18.3bn | 29.5bn | 8.6bn | 14bn – 22.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.79 | 5.3 | 2.47 | 3.47 – 4.1 |
| 2029 | 3.8 | 6.43 | 1.52 | 3.18 – 4.42 |
| 2031 | 3.81 | 7.2 | 0.87 | 2.94 – 4.68 |
| 2036 | 3.84 | 8.63 | -0.32 | 2.43 – 5.25 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed233.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 591.68 | 829.25 | 385.79 | 553.93 – 629.43 |
| 2029 | 715.7 | 1.1k | 359.08 | 632.36 – 799.04 |
| 2031 | 839.72 | 1.4k | 379.32 | 709.3 – 970.14 |
| 2036 | 1.1k | 1.9k | 498.67 | 876.37 – 1.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.68 | 48.65 | 20.7 | 33.11 – 38.24 |
| 2029 | 33.03 | 55.51 | 7.09 | 27.98 – 38.07 |
| 2031 | 30.38 | 59.4 | 0 | 23.48 – 37.27 |
| 2036 | 23.76 | 64.8 | 0 | 13.64 – 33.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.48 | 31.02 | -5 | -0.27 – 11.23 |
| 2029 | -5 | 39.24 | -5 | -5 – 5.05 |
| 2031 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.06 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 13.7 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.8m | 15.5m | 14.2m | 14.4m – 15.3m |
| 2029 | 15.4m | 16.1m | 14.7m | 14.3m – 16.5m |
| 2031 | 16m | 16.7m | 15.3m | 14.1m – 17.8m |
| 2036 | 17.4m | 18.2m | 16.6m | 13.8m – 21m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.23 | 4.06 | -0.88 | 0.86 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 7.21 | -1.34 | 1.6 – 3.04 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 9.72 | -1.32 | 2.35 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 6.12 | 15 | -0.57 | 4.03 – 8.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed88.4m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 87.8m | 254.1m | 0 | 60.9m – 114.6m |
| 2026 | 82.8m | 370.8m | 0 | 34.7m – 130.8m |
| 2028 | 77.8m | 449.5m | 0 | 14.6m – 140.9m |
| 2033 | 65.2m | 591m | 0 | 0 – 156.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.01 | 2.92 | 0 | 0.7 – 1.32 |
| 2026 | 1.34 | 4.65 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.91 |
| 2028 | 1.49 | 5.78 | 0 | 0.72 – 2.27 |
| 2033 | 1.62 | 7.68 | 0 | 0.44 – 2.81 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.3m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 89.8m | 256m | 0 | 63m – 116.7m |
| 2026 | 85m | 372.8m | 0 | 36.8m – 133.1m |
| 2028 | 80.1m | 451.7m | 0 | 16.8m – 143.4m |
| 2033 | 68m | 593.5m | 0 | 0 – 159.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.69 | 0.84 – 0.94 |
| 2028 | 0.82 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.72 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | 0.76 | 1.19 | 0.32 | 0.61 – 0.9 |
| 2035 | 0.59 | 1.21 | 0 | 0.34 – 0.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BDI · API docs
