Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Belgium: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 59/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.27 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1673 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Belgium: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.41 | 1.08 | -5.9 | -3.16 – -1.66 |
| 2029 | -3.22 | 2.82 | -9.26 | -4.61 – -1.83 |
| 2031 | -4.04 | 3.77 | -11.84 | -5.95 – -2.12 |
| 2036 | -6.07 | 4.96 | -17.1 | -9.29 – -2.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.75 | 88.43 | 62.9 | 71.6 – 77.9 |
| 2028 | 73.35 | 97.04 | 52.82 | 66.44 – 80.25 |
| 2030 | 71.94 | 102.53 | 45.44 | 61.82 – 82.07 |
| 2035 | 68.44 | 111.69 | 30.96 | 51.31 – 85.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed725.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 808.1bn | 870.3bn | 754.3bn | 783.1bn – 833.2bn |
| 2029 | 888bn | 995.6bn | 794.7bn | 822.3bn – 953.7bn |
| 2031 | 967.8bn | 1.1T | 847.4bn | 857.9bn – 1.1T |
| 2036 | 1.2T | 1.4T | 997.1bn | 925.3bn – 1.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.27 | 2.41 | -1.58 | -0.1 – 0.64 |
| 2029 | -0.79 | 2.91 | -4 | -1.45 – -0.12 |
| 2031 | -1.85 | 2.93 | -5.99 | -2.79 – -0.9 |
| 2036 | -4.49 | 2.27 | -10 | -6.34 – -2.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.5k | 72.9k | 62.8k | 65.4k – 69.6k |
| 2029 | 73.6k | 82.9k | 65.6k | 68.2k – 79.1k |
| 2031 | 79.8k | 91.8k | 69.4k | 70.7k – 88.8k |
| 2036 | 95.1k | 112.1k | 80.4k | 75.4k – 114.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.51(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.94 | 4.78 | 0.96 | 2.44 – 3.44 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 5.44 | 0 | 1.36 – 3.15 |
| 2031 | 1.92 | 6.03 | 0 | 0.75 – 3.08 |
| 2036 | 1.65 | 7.47 | 0 | 0 – 3.35 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 109.82 | 119.34 | 98.84 | 106.42 – 113.23 |
| 2029 | 111.07 | 127.56 | 92.04 | 102.85 – 119.29 |
| 2031 | 112.32 | 133.6 | 87.75 | 99.56 – 125.07 |
| 2036 | 115.43 | 145.54 | 80.69 | 91.49 – 139.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.99 | 91.81 | 62.18 | 73.49 – 80.49 |
| 2028 | 76.04 | 101.7 | 50.38 | 68.46 – 83.61 |
| 2030 | 75.08 | 108.21 | 41.96 | 64.01 – 86.16 |
| 2035 | 72.7 | 119.55 | 25.85 | 53.9 – 91.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.05 | 11.34 | -5 | 1.16 – 4.93 |
| 2029 | 3.51 | 17.87 | -5 | 0.16 – 6.86 |
| 2031 | 3.98 | 22.51 | -5 | -0.45 – 8.41 |
| 2036 | 5.14 | 31.36 | -5 | -1.49 – 11.78 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.42 | 12.22 | -5 | 1.42 – 5.42 |
| 2029 | 3.34 | 18.58 | -5 | -0.19 – 6.88 |
| 2031 | 3.32 | 22.98 | -5 | -1.31 – 7.94 |
| 2036 | 3.3 | 31.12 | -5 | -3.39 – 10 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.91 | 25.17 | 22.83 | 23.17 – 24.65 |
| 2028 | 23.93 | 25.19 | 22.84 | 22.16 – 25.7 |
| 2030 | 23.95 | 25.21 | 22.86 | 21.23 – 26.67 |
| 2035 | 24 | 25.75 | 22.49 | 19.03 – 28.98 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.9m | 12.5m | 11.4m | 11.5m – 12.3m |
| 2029 | 11.9m | 12.4m | 11.4m | 11m – 12.8m |
| 2031 | 11.9m | 12.4m | 11.3m | 10.5m – 13.2m |
| 2036 | 11.8m | 12.4m | 11.3m | 9.4m – 14.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.55 | 10.93 | -7.23 | -0.76 – 1.86 |
| 2028 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -1.91 – 2.68 |
| 2030 | 0.21 | 15 | -10 | -2.77 – 3.19 |
| 2035 | -0.22 | 15 | -10 | -4.48 – 4.04 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9bn | 31.4bn | 16.4bn | 22.3bn – 25.4bn |
| 2028 | 22.8bn | 35.8bn | 9.8bn | 19.7bn – 25.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.8bn | 38.5bn | 5bn | 17.4bn – 26.1bn |
| 2035 | 19.1bn | 42.8bn | 0 | 12.4bn – 25.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.94 | 1.13 | 0.74 | 0.89 – 0.99 |
| 2028 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 0.54 | 0.76 – 0.95 |
| 2030 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 0.41 | 0.67 – 0.95 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 1.34 | 0.21 | 0.53 – 1.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.4bn | 69.2bn | 49.6bn | 56.9bn – 61.9bn |
| 2028 | 67.5bn | 84.5bn | 50.4bn | 61.6bn – 73.3bn |
| 2030 | 75.5bn | 97.5bn | 53.5bn | 66.1bn – 84.9bn |
| 2035 | 95.7bn | 126.8bn | 64.6bn | 75.6bn – 115.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.23 | 6.91 | 5.54 | 6.02 – 6.43 |
| 2029 | 6.28 | 7.47 | 5.09 | 5.8 – 6.76 |
| 2031 | 6.33 | 7.86 | 4.8 | 5.59 – 7.07 |
| 2036 | 6.46 | 8.63 | 4.29 | 5.1 – 7.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BEL · API docs
