Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Benin: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 17/100); the economy is in expansion; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.76 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.66, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±1.7594 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Benin: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.18 | -2.5 | -9.85 | -7.02 – -5.33 |
| 2028 | -7.13 | -0.75 | -13.5 | -8.77 – -5.48 |
| 2030 | -8.08 | 0.15 | -16.3 | -10.4 – -5.75 |
| 2035 | -10.45 | 1.19 | -22.09 | -14.5 – -6.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.56 | 23.18 | 8.96 | 14.22 – 16.9 |
| 2028 | 12.58 | 25.78 | 1.14 | 10.09 – 15.07 |
| 2030 | 9.6 | 26.64 | 0 | 6.4 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 2.15 | 26.24 | 0 | 0 – 5.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.1bn | 28.4bn | 24.1bn | 25.3bn – 27bn |
| 2028 | 30.1bn | 34.1bn | 26.6bn | 27.8bn – 32.3bn |
| 2030 | 34bn | 39.1bn | 29.5bn | 30.1bn – 37.9bn |
| 2035 | 43.8bn | 51.1bn | 37.5bn | 34.7bn – 52.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.76 | 11.7 | 6.21 | 8.13 – 9.39 |
| 2028 | 10.31 | 12 | 5.9 | 8.96 – 11.65 |
| 2030 | 11.85 | 12 | 6.16 | 9.81 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 3.95 | 8.53 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.9k | 2.2k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.1k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.4k |
| 2035 | 2.7k | 3.2k | 2.2k | 2.1k – 3.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.5 | 68.5 | 55.58 | 60.56 – 64.44 |
| 2028 | 68.9 | 79.29 | 56.92 | 63.81 – 74 |
| 2030 | 75.31 | 88.72 | 59.83 | 66.76 – 83.86 |
| 2035 | 91.31 | 110.28 | 69.43 | 72.37 – 110.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.08 | 24.82 | 11.33 | 16.76 – 19.4 |
| 2028 | 14.1 | 25.78 | 2.42 | 11.64 – 16.57 |
| 2030 | 10.13 | 25.21 | 0 | 7.01 – 13.25 |
| 2035 | 0.19 | 21.52 | 0 | 0 – 3.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 3.32 | -1.09 | 0.7 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | 1.11 | 4.79 | -2.84 | 0.24 – 1.98 |
| 2030 | 1.02 | 5.78 | -4.07 | -0.11 – 2.16 |
| 2035 | 0.81 | 7.54 | -5 | -0.84 – 2.47 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.63 | 39.77 | 33.91 | 35.5 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 39.78 | 45.22 | 35.07 | 36.84 – 42.72 |
| 2030 | 42.92 | 49.94 | 36.84 | 38.05 – 47.8 |
| 2035 | 50.79 | 60.71 | 42.18 | 40.25 – 61.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.7m | 15.4m | 14.1m | 14.3m – 15.2m |
| 2028 | 15.1m | 15.8m | 14.4m | 14m – 16.2m |
| 2030 | 15.5m | 16.2m | 14.8m | 13.7m – 17.3m |
| 2035 | 16.5m | 17.2m | 15.7m | 13m – 19.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 7.23 | 3.88 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 6.55 | 9.87 | 4.06 | 5.82 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 7.78 | 12.07 | 4.57 | 6.63 – 8.94 |
| 2035 | 10.87 | 15 | 6.33 | 8.37 – 13.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.58 | 1.89 | 1.27 | 1.51 – 1.65 |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 2.1 | 1.03 | 1.41 – 1.72 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 1.32 – 1.78 |
| 2035 | 1.51 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 1.12 – 1.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BEN · API docs
