Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bangladesh: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.78 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.9237 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bangladesh: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.17 | 3.09 | -2.75 | -0.44 – 0.78 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 5.57 | -4.55 | -0.57 – 1.59 |
| 2030 | 0.85 | 7.39 | -5.69 | -0.56 – 2.27 |
| 2035 | 1.7 | 10.95 | -7.54 | -0.46 – 3.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.95 | 14.47 | 7.91 | 10.28 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | 10.63 | 16.71 | 5.35 | 9.25 – 12.01 |
| 2030 | 10.3 | 18.16 | 3.49 | 8.35 – 12.25 |
| 2035 | 9.48 | 20.6 | 0 | 6.38 – 12.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed456.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 461.5bn | 506.6bn | 422.4bn | 447.2bn – 475.8bn |
| 2028 | 477.6bn | 555.8bn | 409.8bn | 442.2bn – 512.9bn |
| 2030 | 493.7bn | 594.6bn | 406.2bn | 437.6bn – 549.7bn |
| 2035 | 533.9bn | 676.7bn | 410.1bn | 423.1bn – 644.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 6.64 | -0.57 | 2.09 – 3.46 |
| 2028 | 1.16 | 7.85 | -4.64 | -0.01 – 2.33 |
| 2030 | -0.46 | 8.18 | -7.94 | -1.98 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | -4.5 | 7.71 | -10 | -7.26 – -1.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6k | 2.9k | 2.4k | 2.5k – 2.7k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 3.1k | 2.2k | 2.5k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.7k | 3.3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2035 | 2.8k | 3.7k | 2k | 2.2k – 3.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.74 | 45.73 | 41.44 | 42.38 – 45.09 |
| 2028 | 47.22 | 49.36 | 44.74 | 43.72 – 50.71 |
| 2030 | 50.69 | 53.33 | 47.66 | 44.94 – 56.45 |
| 2035 | 59.39 | 63.11 | 55.09 | 47.07 – 71.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.57 | 21.01 | 12.14 | 15.63 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.05 | 23.73 | 8.37 | 14.1 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 15.52 | 25.44 | 5.61 | 12.76 – 18.28 |
| 2035 | 14.21 | 28.23 | 0.19 | 9.79 – 18.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.96 | 10.94 | 4.77 | 7.17 – 8.75 |
| 2028 | 5.59 | 10.74 | 0.06 | 4.17 – 7 |
| 2030 | 3.21 | 9.87 | -3.92 | 1.48 – 4.94 |
| 2035 | -2.73 | 6.69 | -5 | -5 – -0.21 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.96 | 29.98 | 26.2 | 27.09 – 28.82 |
| 2028 | 26.44 | 29.95 | 23.41 | 24.49 – 28.4 |
| 2030 | 24.93 | 29.46 | 21.01 | 22.1 – 27.76 |
| 2035 | 21.15 | 27.55 | 15.6 | 16.76 – 25.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed175.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 175.2m | 183.4m | 167.5m | 169.7m – 180.6m |
| 2028 | 177.5m | 185.9m | 169.7m | 164.4m – 190.6m |
| 2030 | 179.8m | 188.3m | 172m | 159.4m – 200.3m |
| 2035 | 185.7m | 194.5m | 177.5m | 147.2m – 224.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 6.88 | -1.52 | 1.45 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 10.12 | -4.43 | 0.68 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 1.53 | 12.26 | -6.52 | 0.07 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 0.84 | 15 | -10 | -1.21 – 2.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.9bn | 40.6bn | 9.1bn | 22bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 20.9bn | 48.1bn | 0 | 15.7bn – 26bn |
| 2030 | 16.9bn | 52.1bn | 0 | 10.1bn – 23.6bn |
| 2035 | 6.8bn | 56.6bn | 0 | 0 – 15.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 3.88 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 10.01 | 0 | 3.97 – 5.99 |
| 2030 | 5.27 | 11.76 | 0 | 3.85 – 6.68 |
| 2035 | 5.49 | 14.67 | 0 | 3.21 – 7.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.1bn | 43.1bn | 11.1bn | 24.2bn – 30bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 51.3bn | 0 | 18.3bn – 29bn |
| 2030 | 20.2bn | 56bn | 0 | 13.2bn – 27.3bn |
| 2035 | 11.7bn | 62.2bn | 0 | 2.1bn – 21.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.33 | 4.5 | 2.17 | 3.1 – 3.57 |
| 2028 | 2.45 | 4.47 | 0.43 | 2.02 – 2.88 |
| 2030 | 1.56 | 4.17 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.09 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.69 | 0 | 0 – 0.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BGD · API docs
