Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bangladesh: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.63 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±2.6967 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bangladesh: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.45 | 2.35 | -3.24 | -1.03 – 0.14 |
| 2029 | -0.14 | 4.71 | -4.98 | -1.18 – 0.9 |
| 2031 | 0.17 | 6.42 | -6.09 | -1.19 – 1.52 |
| 2036 | 0.94 | 9.78 | -7.91 | -1.03 – 2.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.95 | 14.47 | 7.91 | 10.28 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | 10.63 | 16.71 | 5.35 | 9.25 – 12.01 |
| 2030 | 10.3 | 18.16 | 3.49 | 8.35 – 12.25 |
| 2035 | 9.48 | 20.6 | 0 | 6.38 – 12.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed456.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 527.2bn | 579.1bn | 482.2bn | 510.9bn – 543.5bn |
| 2029 | 569.6bn | 659.5bn | 491.8bn | 527.5bn – 611.8bn |
| 2031 | 612.1bn | 728bn | 511.5bn | 542.6bn – 681.6bn |
| 2036 | 718.1bn | 882.2bn | 576bn | 569.2bn – 867.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.63 | 6.77 | 2.78 | 4.2 – 5.06 |
| 2029 | 4.41 | 8.12 | 1.2 | 3.58 – 5.24 |
| 2031 | 4.2 | 8.98 | 0.05 | 3.06 – 5.33 |
| 2036 | 3.66 | 10.42 | -2.21 | 1.94 – 5.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3k | 3.3k | 2.7k | 2.9k – 3.1k |
| 2029 | 3.2k | 3.7k | 2.7k | 3k – 3.4k |
| 2031 | 3.4k | 4.1k | 2.8k | 3k – 3.8k |
| 2036 | 3.9k | 4.9k | 3k | 3.1k – 4.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.44 | 45.42 | 41.16 | 42.1 – 44.79 |
| 2029 | 46.73 | 49.29 | 43.78 | 43.27 – 50.19 |
| 2031 | 50.02 | 53.32 | 46.21 | 44.34 – 55.7 |
| 2036 | 58.24 | 62.9 | 52.85 | 46.16 – 70.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.57 | 21.01 | 12.14 | 15.63 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.05 | 23.73 | 8.37 | 14.1 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 15.52 | 25.44 | 5.61 | 12.76 – 18.28 |
| 2035 | 14.21 | 28.23 | 0.19 | 9.79 – 18.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.49 | 12.38 | 6.39 | 8.69 – 10.28 |
| 2029 | 10.09 | 15.1 | 4.72 | 8.5 – 11.68 |
| 2031 | 10.69 | 17.16 | 3.77 | 8.41 – 12.98 |
| 2036 | 12.2 | 21.35 | 2.41 | 8.22 – 16.18 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.96 | 29.98 | 26.2 | 27.09 – 28.82 |
| 2028 | 26.44 | 29.95 | 23.41 | 24.49 – 28.4 |
| 2030 | 24.93 | 29.46 | 21.01 | 22.1 – 27.76 |
| 2035 | 21.15 | 27.55 | 15.6 | 16.76 – 25.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed175.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 174.6m | 182.9m | 167m | 169.2m – 180.1m |
| 2029 | 174.3m | 182.6m | 166.7m | 161.4m – 187.2m |
| 2031 | 174.1m | 182.3m | 166.4m | 154.3m – 193.8m |
| 2036 | 173.3m | 181.5m | 165.7m | 137.4m – 209.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 6.88 | -1.52 | 1.45 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 10.12 | -4.43 | 0.68 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 1.53 | 12.26 | -6.52 | 0.07 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 0.84 | 15 | -10 | -1.21 – 2.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.9bn | 40.6bn | 9.1bn | 22bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 20.9bn | 48.1bn | 0 | 15.7bn – 26bn |
| 2030 | 16.9bn | 52.1bn | 0 | 10.1bn – 23.6bn |
| 2035 | 6.8bn | 56.6bn | 0 | 0 – 15.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 3.88 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 10.01 | 0 | 3.97 – 5.99 |
| 2030 | 5.27 | 11.76 | 0 | 3.85 – 6.68 |
| 2035 | 5.49 | 14.67 | 0 | 3.21 – 7.78 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.1bn | 43.1bn | 11.1bn | 24.2bn – 30bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 51.3bn | 0 | 18.3bn – 29bn |
| 2030 | 20.2bn | 56bn | 0 | 13.2bn – 27.3bn |
| 2035 | 11.7bn | 62.2bn | 0 | 2.1bn – 21.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.33 | 4.5 | 2.17 | 3.1 – 3.57 |
| 2028 | 2.45 | 4.47 | 0.43 | 2.02 – 2.88 |
| 2030 | 1.56 | 4.17 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.09 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.69 | 0 | 0 – 0.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BGD · API docs
