Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bulgaria: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.6972 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bulgaria: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.98 | -1.36 | -8.59 | -5.79 – -4.16 |
| 2029 | -6.93 | -0.67 | -13.19 | -8.54 – -5.32 |
| 2031 | -8.88 | -0.79 | -16.97 | -11.24 – -6.52 |
| 2036 | -13.76 | -2.33 | -25.2 | -18.3 – -9.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.3 | 61.92 | 38.35 | 46.7 – 51.89 |
| 2028 | 46.41 | 68.28 | 27.46 | 41.06 – 51.76 |
| 2030 | 43.52 | 71.75 | 19.06 | 36.01 – 51.04 |
| 2035 | 36.31 | 76.23 | 1.71 | 24.8 – 47.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 159.2bn | 170.2bn | 149.6bn | 154.2bn – 164.1bn |
| 2029 | 186.9bn | 206.1bn | 170.3bn | 173.1bn – 200.7bn |
| 2031 | 214.6bn | 239.4bn | 193.2bn | 190.3bn – 239bn |
| 2036 | 284bn | 319bn | 253.7bn | 225.1bn – 342.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.39 | 6.35 | -1.05 | 1.69 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 1.45 | 8.32 | -4.5 | 0.24 – 2.67 |
| 2031 | 0.51 | 9.38 | -7.17 | -1.04 – 2.07 |
| 2036 | -1.83 | 10.71 | -10 | -4.21 – 0.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.7k | 27.7k | 23.9k | 24.9k – 26.5k |
| 2029 | 30.4k | 33.8k | 27.3k | 28.1k – 32.6k |
| 2031 | 35k | 39.5k | 31.1k | 31.1k – 39k |
| 2036 | 46.7k | 53.1k | 41.2k | 37k – 56.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.47 | 5.14 | 1.69 | 3.01 – 3.94 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 5.63 | 0 | 1.9 – 3.58 |
| 2031 | 2.38 | 6.11 | 0 | 1.27 – 3.49 |
| 2036 | 2.09 | 7.37 | 0 | 0.46 – 3.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.94 | 32.9 | 24.38 | 27.87 – 30.02 |
| 2029 | 30.43 | 37.29 | 22.52 | 27.92 – 32.95 |
| 2031 | 31.92 | 40.78 | 21.71 | 28.01 – 35.84 |
| 2036 | 35.65 | 48.17 | 21.21 | 28.02 – 43.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.65 | 63.4 | 37.9 | 47.89 – 53.41 |
| 2028 | 48.4 | 70.48 | 26.32 | 42.7 – 54.1 |
| 2030 | 46.15 | 74.66 | 17.64 | 38.1 – 54.21 |
| 2035 | 40.53 | 80.84 | 0.21 | 27.87 – 53.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 17.37 | -5 | 0.37 – 6.63 |
| 2029 | 2.41 | 26.43 | -5 | -3.03 – 7.85 |
| 2031 | 1.32 | 32.32 | -5 | -5 – 8.3 |
| 2036 | -1.42 | 42.44 | -5 | -5 – 8.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.17 | 13.98 | -5 | 1.93 – 6.41 |
| 2029 | 4.24 | 21.22 | -5 | 0.27 – 8.21 |
| 2031 | 4.27 | 26.19 | -5 | -0.94 – 9.47 |
| 2036 | 4.28 | 35.29 | -5 | -3.28 – 11.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.54 | 23.53 | 17.95 | 19.79 – 21.3 |
| 2028 | 21.61 | 26.78 | 17.12 | 19.83 – 23.38 |
| 2030 | 22.67 | 29.35 | 16.87 | 19.9 – 25.44 |
| 2035 | 25.32 | 34.78 | 17.13 | 19.92 – 30.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.2m | 6.5m | 5.9m | 6m – 6.4m |
| 2029 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.7m | 5.5m – 6.4m |
| 2031 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.1m – 6.4m |
| 2036 | 5.1m | 5.5m | 4.7m | 4m – 6.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 15 | -5.87 | 1.62 – 4.74 |
| 2028 | 4.05 | 15 | -10 | 1.25 – 6.86 |
| 2030 | 4.93 | 15 | -10 | 1.16 – 8.69 |
| 2035 | 7.11 | 15 | -10 | 1.2 – 13.01 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42bn | 49.6bn | 34.4bn | 40.2bn – 43.8bn |
| 2028 | 44.4bn | 57.5bn | 31.2bn | 40.2bn – 48.5bn |
| 2030 | 46.8bn | 63.7bn | 29.8bn | 40.4bn – 53.1bn |
| 2035 | 52.7bn | 76.7bn | 28.7bn | 40.6bn – 64.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.42 | 10.42 | 4.41 | 6.84 – 7.99 |
| 2028 | 7.72 | 12.93 | 2.52 | 6.56 – 8.89 |
| 2030 | 7.87 | 14.59 | 1.15 | 6.22 – 9.53 |
| 2035 | 7.99 | 17.5 | 0 | 5.26 – 10.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.7bn | 56.3bn | 41.2bn | 46.8bn – 50.7bn |
| 2028 | 52.9bn | 65.9bn | 39.8bn | 48.3bn – 57.4bn |
| 2030 | 57bn | 73.9bn | 40.1bn | 49.9bn – 64.1bn |
| 2035 | 67.4bn | 91.2bn | 43.5bn | 52.9bn – 81.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.09 | 3.93 | 2.25 | 2.91 – 3.27 |
| 2029 | 2.48 | 3.93 | 1.02 | 2.13 – 2.82 |
| 2031 | 1.86 | 3.73 | 0 | 1.42 – 2.3 |
| 2036 | 0.32 | 2.97 | 0 | 0 – 0.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BGR · API docs
