Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bulgaria: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.69 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0869 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bulgaria: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.92 | -2.97 | -10.86 | -7.83 – -6 |
| 2028 | -8.55 | -1.72 | -15.39 | -10.36 – -6.75 |
| 2030 | -10.19 | -1.37 | -19.01 | -12.81 – -7.57 |
| 2035 | -14.28 | -1.8 | -26.76 | -19.11 – -9.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.3 | 61.92 | 38.35 | 46.7 – 51.89 |
| 2028 | 46.41 | 68.28 | 27.46 | 41.06 – 51.76 |
| 2030 | 43.52 | 71.75 | 19.06 | 36.01 – 51.04 |
| 2035 | 36.31 | 76.23 | 1.71 | 24.8 – 47.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 140bn | 151.4bn | 130.1bn | 135.7bn – 144.3bn |
| 2028 | 163.2bn | 183bn | 146.1bn | 151.2bn – 175.3bn |
| 2030 | 186.5bn | 212bn | 164.3bn | 165.3bn – 207.7bn |
| 2035 | 244.6bn | 280.7bn | 213.3bn | 193.9bn – 295.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.69 | 12 | -5.78 | 1.81 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 12 | -10 | 1.51 – 8.29 |
| 2030 | 6.11 | 12 | -10 | 1.55 – 10.67 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 12 | -10 | 1.92 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8k | 23.5k | 20.3k | 21.1k – 22.4k |
| 2028 | 25.4k | 28.4k | 22.9k | 23.5k – 27.3k |
| 2030 | 29.1k | 32.9k | 25.8k | 25.8k – 32.4k |
| 2035 | 38.2k | 43.6k | 33.6k | 30.3k – 46.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.47 | 5.14 | 1.69 | 3.01 – 3.94 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 5.63 | 0 | 1.9 – 3.58 |
| 2031 | 2.38 | 6.11 | 0 | 1.27 – 3.49 |
| 2036 | 2.09 | 7.37 | 0 | 0.46 – 3.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.26 | 35.91 | 23.75 | 28.91 – 31.62 |
| 2028 | 30.99 | 40.77 | 19.7 | 28 – 33.98 |
| 2030 | 31.72 | 44.34 | 17.14 | 27.23 – 36.2 |
| 2035 | 33.53 | 51.39 | 12.92 | 25.42 – 41.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.65 | 63.4 | 37.9 | 47.89 – 53.41 |
| 2028 | 48.4 | 70.48 | 26.32 | 42.7 – 54.1 |
| 2030 | 46.15 | 74.66 | 17.64 | 38.1 – 54.21 |
| 2035 | 40.53 | 80.84 | 0.21 | 27.87 – 53.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.12 | 20 | -5 | 2.95 – 9.3 |
| 2028 | 9.11 | 33.15 | -5 | 3.34 – 14.88 |
| 2030 | 12.1 | 43.13 | -5 | 4.25 – 19.95 |
| 2035 | 19.57 | 50 | -5 | 6.71 – 32.43 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.13 | 15.01 | -5 | 2.86 – 7.4 |
| 2029 | 4.68 | 21.79 | -5 | 0.67 – 8.7 |
| 2031 | 4.52 | 26.6 | -5 | -0.74 – 9.78 |
| 2036 | 4.44 | 35.67 | -5 | -3.2 – 12.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.54 | 23.53 | 17.95 | 19.79 – 21.3 |
| 2028 | 21.61 | 26.78 | 17.12 | 19.83 – 23.38 |
| 2030 | 22.67 | 29.35 | 16.87 | 19.9 – 25.44 |
| 2035 | 25.32 | 34.78 | 17.13 | 19.92 – 30.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.2m | 6.2m – 6.6m |
| 2028 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 6m – 6.9m |
| 2030 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.7m – 7.2m |
| 2035 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.1m – 7.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 15 | -5.87 | 1.62 – 4.74 |
| 2028 | 4.05 | 15 | -10 | 1.25 – 6.86 |
| 2030 | 4.93 | 15 | -10 | 1.16 – 8.69 |
| 2035 | 7.11 | 15 | -10 | 1.2 – 13.01 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42bn | 49.6bn | 34.4bn | 40.2bn – 43.8bn |
| 2028 | 44.4bn | 57.5bn | 31.2bn | 40.2bn – 48.5bn |
| 2030 | 46.8bn | 63.7bn | 29.8bn | 40.4bn – 53.1bn |
| 2035 | 52.7bn | 76.7bn | 28.7bn | 40.6bn – 64.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.42 | 10.42 | 4.41 | 6.84 – 7.99 |
| 2028 | 7.72 | 12.93 | 2.52 | 6.56 – 8.89 |
| 2030 | 7.87 | 14.59 | 1.15 | 6.22 – 9.53 |
| 2035 | 7.99 | 17.5 | 0 | 5.26 – 10.73 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.7bn | 56.3bn | 41.2bn | 46.8bn – 50.7bn |
| 2028 | 52.9bn | 65.9bn | 39.8bn | 48.3bn – 57.4bn |
| 2030 | 57bn | 73.9bn | 40.1bn | 49.9bn – 64.1bn |
| 2035 | 67.4bn | 91.2bn | 43.5bn | 52.9bn – 81.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.24 | 4.16 | 2.33 | 3.05 – 3.44 |
| 2028 | 2.66 | 4.24 | 1.08 | 2.29 – 3.03 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 4.12 | 0.03 | 1.6 – 2.55 |
| 2035 | 0.61 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.01 – 1.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BGR · API docs
