Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bahrain: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 56/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.69 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8823 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bahrain: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.12 | 20.66 | -10.42 | 1.87 – 8.37 |
| 2029 | 7.56 | 30 | -19.35 | 1.71 – 13.42 |
| 2031 | 10.01 | 30 | -24.74 | 2.12 – 17.9 |
| 2036 | 16.11 | 30 | -30 | 3.51 – 28.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 90.45 | 106.54 | 76.51 | 86.71 – 94.2 |
| 2027 | 96.39 | 124.26 | 72.24 | 87.78 – 105 |
| 2029 | 102.32 | 138.3 | 71.14 | 89 – 115.65 |
| 2034 | 117.16 | 150 | 73.06 | 91.14 – 143.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.8bn | 56.6bn | 44bn | 48.2bn – 51.4bn |
| 2029 | 52.4bn | 64bn | 42.3bn | 48.5bn – 56.3bn |
| 2031 | 54.9bn | 70bn | 41.9bn | 48.7bn – 61.1bn |
| 2036 | 61.2bn | 82.5bn | 42.8bn | 48.5bn – 73.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.69 | 2.62 | -5.43 | -2.44 – -0.95 |
| 2029 | -4.52 | 2.95 | -10 | -5.99 – -3.06 |
| 2031 | -7.35 | 2.29 | -10 | -9.55 – -5.16 |
| 2036 | -10 | 3.64 | -10 | -10 – -6.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.9k | 34.2k | 26.1k | 28.9k – 30.9k |
| 2029 | 30.6k | 38.2k | 24.1k | 28.2k – 33k |
| 2031 | 31.4k | 41.1k | 22.9k | 27.7k – 35k |
| 2036 | 33.2k | 47k | 21.3k | 26.2k – 40.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed152.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 159.55 | 178.45 | 137.74 | 154.09 – 165.01 |
| 2029 | 173.86 | 206.6 | 136.08 | 160.48 – 187.24 |
| 2031 | 188.16 | 230.43 | 139.4 | 166.61 – 209.72 |
| 2036 | 223.93 | 283.7 | 154.96 | 177.48 – 270.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.99(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70.93 | 77.44 | 64.42 | 68.73 – 73.13 |
| 2027 | 72.8 | 84.07 | 61.52 | 67.41 – 78.18 |
| 2029 | 74.67 | 89.22 | 60.11 | 66.19 – 83.14 |
| 2034 | 79.34 | 99.92 | 58.75 | 62.88 – 95.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.51 | 9.03 | -2.41 | 2.23 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 7.06 | 16.62 | -3.19 | 4.6 – 9.52 |
| 2031 | 10.61 | 22.96 | -2.62 | 7.03 – 14.2 |
| 2036 | 19.49 | 36.95 | 0.79 | 12.5 – 26.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.43 | 33.96 | 25.51 | 28.32 – 30.55 |
| 2027 | 30.69 | 38.53 | 23.89 | 28.1 – 33.28 |
| 2029 | 31.94 | 42.06 | 23.17 | 27.94 – 35.94 |
| 2034 | 35.08 | 49.39 | 22.67 | 27.42 – 42.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.7m | 1.7m | 1.6m | 1.6m – 1.7m |
| 2029 | 1.7m | 1.8m | 1.6m | 1.6m – 1.8m |
| 2031 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2036 | 1.9m | 2m | 1.8m | 1.5m – 2.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7 | 10.27 | -2.98 | 1.71 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 3.08 | 15 | -6.76 | 1.29 – 4.86 |
| 2030 | 3.46 | 15 | -9.24 | 1.06 – 5.85 |
| 2035 | 4.41 | 15 | -10 | 0.71 – 8.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 7bn | 2.4bn | 4.3bn – 5.1bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 9bn | 968.7m | 4.1bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 5.3bn | 10.5bn | 82.6m | 4.1bn – 6.5bn |
| 2035 | 6bn | 13.4bn | 0 | 3.9bn – 8.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.42(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.41 | 2.24 | 0.57 | 1.26 – 1.56 |
| 2027 | 1.39 | 2.83 | 0 | 1.1 – 1.68 |
| 2029 | 1.39 | 3.25 | 0 | 0.99 – 1.78 |
| 2034 | 1.38 | 4.01 | 0 | 0.76 – 2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 7.7bn | 3.2bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 9.9bn | 2bn | 5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2030 | 6.4bn | 11.5bn | 1.3bn | 5.1bn – 7.7bn |
| 2035 | 7.6bn | 14.8bn | 352.9m | 5.3bn – 9.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.96 | 1.22 | 0.7 | 0.91 – 1.02 |
| 2028 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.23 | 0.56 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.4 | 0.98 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 0 – 0.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BHR · API docs
