Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bahrain: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±15.0388 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bahrain: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.97 | 22.5 | -8.56 | 3.69 – 10.25 |
| 2028 | 10.91 | 30 | -15.99 | 4.89 – 16.92 |
| 2030 | 14.85 | 30 | -19.88 | 6.57 – 23.12 |
| 2035 | 24.69 | 30 | -24.42 | 10.72 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 90.45 | 106.54 | 76.51 | 86.71 – 94.2 |
| 2027 | 96.39 | 124.26 | 72.24 | 87.78 – 105 |
| 2029 | 102.32 | 138.3 | 71.14 | 89 – 115.65 |
| 2034 | 117.16 | 150 | 73.06 | 91.14 – 143.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.8bn | 56.4bn | 44bn | 48.2bn – 51.4bn |
| 2028 | 52.1bn | 63.6bn | 42.1bn | 48.2bn – 56bn |
| 2030 | 54.4bn | 69.3bn | 41.5bn | 48.2bn – 60.6bn |
| 2035 | 60.2bn | 81.3bn | 42bn | 47.7bn – 72.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 12 | -4.3 | 2.13 – 5.35 |
| 2028 | 4.37 | 12 | -9.56 | 1.48 – 7.26 |
| 2030 | 5 | 12 | -10 | 1.14 – 8.85 |
| 2035 | 6.57 | 12 | -10 | 0.63 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.8k | 35k | 27.1k | 29.8k – 31.8k |
| 2028 | 31.5k | 38.8k | 25.2k | 29.1k – 33.9k |
| 2030 | 32.2k | 41.6k | 24k | 28.5k – 35.9k |
| 2035 | 33.9k | 47.2k | 22.4k | 26.9k – 41k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed162.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 151.29 | 169.82 | 129.91 | 146.02 – 156.56 |
| 2028 | 165.27 | 197.36 | 128.23 | 152.4 – 178.14 |
| 2030 | 179.24 | 220.68 | 131.43 | 158.53 – 199.96 |
| 2035 | 214.18 | 272.78 | 146.57 | 169.76 – 258.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.99(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70.93 | 77.44 | 64.42 | 68.73 – 73.13 |
| 2027 | 72.8 | 84.07 | 61.52 | 67.41 – 78.18 |
| 2029 | 74.67 | 89.22 | 60.11 | 66.19 – 83.14 |
| 2034 | 79.34 | 99.92 | 58.75 | 62.88 – 95.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.58 | 4.74 | -5 | -1.77 – 0.62 |
| 2028 | -2.06 | 7.15 | -5 | -4.2 – 0.08 |
| 2030 | -3.54 | 8.35 | -5 | -5 – -0.62 |
| 2035 | -5 | 11.82 | -5 | -5 – -0.47 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.43 | 33.96 | 25.51 | 28.32 – 30.55 |
| 2027 | 30.69 | 38.53 | 23.89 | 28.1 – 33.28 |
| 2029 | 31.94 | 42.06 | 23.17 | 27.94 – 35.94 |
| 2034 | 35.08 | 49.39 | 22.67 | 27.42 – 42.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.6m |
| 2028 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.7m |
| 2030 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.4m – 1.8m |
| 2035 | 1.7m | 1.8m | 1.5m | 1.3m – 2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7 | 10.27 | -2.98 | 1.71 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 3.08 | 15 | -6.76 | 1.29 – 4.86 |
| 2030 | 3.46 | 15 | -9.24 | 1.06 – 5.85 |
| 2035 | 4.41 | 15 | -10 | 0.71 – 8.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 7bn | 2.4bn | 4.3bn – 5.1bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 9bn | 968.7m | 4.1bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 5.3bn | 10.5bn | 82.6m | 4.1bn – 6.5bn |
| 2035 | 6bn | 13.4bn | 0 | 3.9bn – 8.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 2.21 | 0.62 | 1.27 – 1.56 |
| 2028 | 1.39 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 1.11 – 1.66 |
| 2030 | 1.37 | 3.16 | 0 | 0.99 – 1.76 |
| 2035 | 1.36 | 3.88 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.97 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 7.7bn | 3.2bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 9.9bn | 2bn | 5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2030 | 6.4bn | 11.5bn | 1.3bn | 5.1bn – 7.7bn |
| 2035 | 7.6bn | 14.8bn | 352.9m | 5.3bn – 9.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.96 | 1.22 | 0.7 | 0.91 – 1.02 |
| 2028 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.23 | 0.56 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.4 | 0.98 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 0 – 0.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BHR · API docs
