Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bahamas, The: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+11% skill vs naive; realized ±2.2422 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bahamas, The: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.89 | 10.03 | -25.82 | -11.68 – -4.11 |
| 2028 | -7.08 | 23.97 | -30 | -13.75 – -0.4 |
| 2030 | -6.26 | 30 | -30 | -14.94 – 2.42 |
| 2035 | -4.22 | 30 | -30 | -16.46 – 8.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.57 | 51.16 | 27.67 | 36.16 – 40.99 |
| 2027 | 40.16 | 61.95 | 21.27 | 35.12 – 45.2 |
| 2029 | 41.74 | 69.87 | 17.36 | 34.38 – 49.1 |
| 2034 | 45.69 | 85.48 | 11.21 | 32.7 – 58.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.9bn | 21.1bn | 15.2bn | 17.3bn – 18.6bn |
| 2028 | 19.8bn | 25.3bn | 15bn | 18.2bn – 21.4bn |
| 2030 | 21.6bn | 28.8bn | 15.4bn | 19bn – 24.2bn |
| 2035 | 26.2bn | 36.3bn | 17.4bn | 20.8bn – 31.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 12 | -10 | -1.22 – 10.7 |
| 2028 | 6.71 | 12 | -10 | -3.8 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.67 | 12 | -10 | -5.17 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -8.52 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.2k | 51.2k | 36.3k | 41.6k – 44.8k |
| 2028 | 47k | 60.8k | 35.1k | 43.1k – 50.9k |
| 2030 | 50.9k | 68.7k | 35.4k | 44.7k – 57.1k |
| 2035 | 60.4k | 85.7k | 38.6k | 47.8k – 73.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.66 | 89.64 | 57.38 | 71.16 – 78.16 |
| 2028 | 80.57 | 106.52 | 50.64 | 72.72 – 88.43 |
| 2030 | 86.49 | 119.98 | 47.85 | 74.42 – 98.56 |
| 2035 | 101.28 | 148.65 | 46.63 | 77.79 – 124.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42.24 | 49.23 | 35.26 | 40.5 – 43.99 |
| 2027 | 43.82 | 55.92 | 31.72 | 39.86 – 47.77 |
| 2029 | 45.39 | 61.01 | 29.77 | 39.37 – 51.41 |
| 2034 | 49.32 | 71.41 | 27.23 | 38.04 – 60.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.67 | 6.58 | -3.6 | 0.55 – 2.78 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 11.15 | -5 | 0.63 – 4.66 |
| 2030 | 3.63 | 14.61 | -5 | 0.9 – 6.35 |
| 2035 | 6.07 | 21.61 | -5 | 1.66 – 10.49 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.86 | 30.04 | 22.24 | 24.85 – 26.87 |
| 2027 | 26.35 | 33.58 | 20.08 | 24.05 – 28.65 |
| 2029 | 26.83 | 36.17 | 18.74 | 23.35 – 30.32 |
| 2034 | 28.05 | 41.25 | 16.61 | 21.68 – 34.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed403k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 402.6k | 421.6k | 384.9k | 390.1k – 415.1k |
| 2028 | 404.5k | 423.6k | 386.8k | 374.6k – 434.4k |
| 2030 | 406.4k | 425.6k | 388.6k | 360.3k – 452.6k |
| 2035 | 411.2k | 430.7k | 393.2k | 325.9k – 496.6k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.61 – 4.86 |
| 2027 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -6.48 – 4.72 |
| 2029 | -3.39 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 4.05 |
| 2034 | -9.66 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2028 | 3.1bn | 3.9bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.9bn | 5.3bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.96 | 6.84 | 1.08 | 3.46 – 4.46 |
| 2027 | 3.97 | 8.96 | 0 | 3.01 – 4.92 |
| 2029 | 3.97 | 10.41 | 0 | 2.67 – 5.27 |
| 2034 | 3.97 | 13.09 | 0 | 1.94 – 6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2028 | 3.1bn | 3.9bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.9bn | 5.3bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.61 | 10.18 | 7.05 | 8.24 – 8.99 |
| 2028 | 7.43 | 10.14 | 4.71 | 6.66 – 8.2 |
| 2030 | 6.24 | 9.75 | 2.74 | 5.21 – 7.28 |
| 2035 | 3.28 | 8.24 | 0 | 2 – 4.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BHS · API docs
