Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.62 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±5.9818 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bosnia and Herzegovina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.82 | -1.81 | -7.84 | -5.52 – -4.13 |
| 2029 | -5.27 | -0.05 | -10.49 | -6.59 – -3.95 |
| 2031 | -5.72 | 1.02 | -12.45 | -7.55 – -3.89 |
| 2036 | -6.84 | 2.69 | -16.36 | -9.88 – -3.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.36 | 51.42 | 32.63 | 39.26 – 43.46 |
| 2028 | 42.07 | 59.5 | 26.96 | 37.56 – 46.58 |
| 2030 | 42.78 | 65.29 | 23.28 | 36.15 – 49.42 |
| 2035 | 44.57 | 76.39 | 16.98 | 32.89 – 56.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.9bn | 41.9bn | 36.3bn | 37.7bn – 40.2bn |
| 2029 | 44.5bn | 49.7bn | 40bn | 41.2bn – 47.8bn |
| 2031 | 50bn | 56.7bn | 44.2bn | 44.3bn – 55.7bn |
| 2036 | 63.8bn | 73.3bn | 55.6bn | 50.6bn – 77bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.62 | 4.92 | -1.24 | 1.04 – 2.2 |
| 2029 | 0.31 | 6.02 | -4.64 | -0.69 – 1.31 |
| 2031 | -1 | 6.38 | -7.39 | -2.31 – 0.31 |
| 2036 | -4.28 | 6.16 | -10 | -6.7 – -1.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.3k | 12.1k | 10.5k | 10.9k – 11.6k |
| 2029 | 12.7k | 14.1k | 11.4k | 11.8k – 13.6k |
| 2031 | 14.1k | 16k | 12.5k | 12.5k – 15.7k |
| 2036 | 17.7k | 20.4k | 15.4k | 14k – 21.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.9 | 34.66 | 24.41 | 28.69 – 31.11 |
| 2029 | 28.1 | 36.34 | 18.59 | 25.48 – 30.71 |
| 2031 | 26.3 | 36.93 | 14.02 | 22.56 – 30.04 |
| 2036 | 21.79 | 36.84 | 4.44 | 15.99 – 27.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.27 | 64.39 | 44.15 | 51.86 – 56.69 |
| 2028 | 54.58 | 72.11 | 37.05 | 49.28 – 59.88 |
| 2030 | 54.89 | 77.52 | 32.26 | 47.03 – 62.74 |
| 2035 | 55.66 | 87.66 | 23.65 | 41.85 – 69.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.65 | 18.46 | -5 | 1.51 – 7.78 |
| 2029 | 5.35 | 29.26 | -5 | -0.21 – 10.91 |
| 2031 | 6.05 | 36.92 | -5 | -1.28 – 13.38 |
| 2036 | 7.8 | 50 | -5 | -3.13 – 18.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.88 | 26.62 | 23.37 | 24.11 – 25.65 |
| 2027 | 26.1 | 29.12 | 23.48 | 24.17 – 28.03 |
| 2029 | 27.32 | 31.22 | 23.94 | 24.22 – 30.42 |
| 2034 | 30.38 | 35.89 | 25.6 | 24.07 – 36.68 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5m | 3.7m | 3.3m | 3.4m – 3.6m |
| 2029 | 3.8m | 4.1m | 3.5m | 3.5m – 4.1m |
| 2031 | 4.1m | 4.6m | 3.7m | 3.7m – 4.6m |
| 2036 | 4.9m | 5.6m | 4.4m | 3.9m – 6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 14.17 | -2.88 | 3.14 – 5.72 |
| 2028 | 6.22 | 15 | -6.44 | 3.81 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 8 | 15 | -8.33 | 4.64 – 11.37 |
| 2035 | 12.47 | 15 | -10 | 6.63 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 8.1bn | 8.9bn – 9.6bn |
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 11.6bn | 7.6bn | 8.8bn – 10.3bn |
| 2029 | 9.9bn | 12.5bn | 7.3bn | 8.7bn – 11.1bn |
| 2034 | 10.8bn | 14.5bn | 7.1bn | 8.5bn – 13.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.69 | 9.23 | 4.15 | 6.19 – 7.19 |
| 2027 | 6.93 | 11.33 | 2.54 | 5.93 – 7.94 |
| 2029 | 7.05 | 12.73 | 1.38 | 5.62 – 8.49 |
| 2034 | 7.15 | 15.18 | 0 | 4.78 – 9.52 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.5bn | 10.7bn | 8.3bn | 9.2bn – 9.9bn |
| 2027 | 9.9bn | 12bn | 7.9bn | 9.1bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.3bn | 13bn | 7.7bn | 9.1bn – 11.6bn |
| 2034 | 11.3bn | 15.1bn | 7.5bn | 8.9bn – 13.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.13 | 14.97 | 9.3 | 11.51 – 12.76 |
| 2029 | 11.2 | 16.12 | 6.29 | 9.91 – 12.49 |
| 2031 | 10.27 | 16.61 | 3.92 | 8.48 – 12.06 |
| 2036 | 7.94 | 16.91 | 0 | 5.29 – 10.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BIH · API docs
