Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.32 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0198 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bosnia and Herzegovina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.15 | -0.23 | -6.07 | -3.8 – -2.5 |
| 2028 | -3.25 | 1.81 | -8.32 | -4.44 – -2.06 |
| 2030 | -3.36 | 3.18 | -9.89 | -4.96 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -3.61 | 5.63 | -12.86 | -6.08 – -1.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.36 | 51.42 | 32.63 | 39.26 – 43.46 |
| 2028 | 42.07 | 59.5 | 26.96 | 37.56 – 46.58 |
| 2030 | 42.78 | 65.29 | 23.28 | 36.15 – 49.42 |
| 2035 | 44.57 | 76.39 | 16.98 | 32.89 – 56.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.5bn | 37.4bn | 31.9bn | 33.4bn – 35.5bn |
| 2028 | 39.1bn | 44.2bn | 34.6bn | 36.2bn – 42bn |
| 2030 | 43.7bn | 50.3bn | 38bn | 38.7bn – 48.7bn |
| 2035 | 55.3bn | 64.6bn | 47.2bn | 43.8bn – 66.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 12 | -6.62 | 0.56 – 4.08 |
| 2028 | 2.64 | 12 | -10 | -0.46 – 5.75 |
| 2030 | 2.96 | 12 | -10 | -1.12 – 7.05 |
| 2035 | 3.77 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 9.81 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11k | 11.9k | 10.2k | 10.7k – 11.3k |
| 2028 | 12.6k | 14.2k | 11.2k | 11.7k – 13.5k |
| 2030 | 14.2k | 16.2k | 12.4k | 12.6k – 15.8k |
| 2035 | 18.1k | 21k | 15.6k | 14.4k – 21.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.31 | 32.64 | 21.17 | 26.05 – 28.57 |
| 2028 | 24.33 | 33.56 | 13.69 | 21.75 – 26.92 |
| 2030 | 21.35 | 33.26 | 7.62 | 17.81 – 24.89 |
| 2035 | 13.91 | 30.75 | 0 | 9.09 – 18.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.27 | 64.39 | 44.15 | 51.86 – 56.69 |
| 2028 | 54.58 | 72.11 | 37.05 | 49.28 – 59.88 |
| 2030 | 54.89 | 77.52 | 32.26 | 47.03 – 62.74 |
| 2035 | 55.66 | 87.66 | 23.65 | 41.85 – 69.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 19.36 | -5 | 2.22 – 8.58 |
| 2028 | 8.6 | 32.78 | -5 | 2.83 – 14.37 |
| 2030 | 11.8 | 43.01 | -5 | 3.94 – 19.66 |
| 2035 | 19.8 | 50 | -5 | 6.85 – 32.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.88 | 26.62 | 23.37 | 24.11 – 25.65 |
| 2027 | 26.1 | 29.12 | 23.48 | 24.17 – 28.03 |
| 2029 | 27.32 | 31.22 | 23.94 | 24.22 – 30.42 |
| 2034 | 30.38 | 35.89 | 25.6 | 24.07 – 36.68 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 3m – 3.2m |
| 2028 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 3m | 2.7m – 3.4m |
| 2035 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.4m – 3.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 14.17 | -2.88 | 3.14 – 5.72 |
| 2028 | 6.22 | 15 | -6.44 | 3.81 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 8 | 15 | -8.33 | 4.64 – 11.37 |
| 2035 | 12.47 | 15 | -10 | 6.63 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 8.1bn | 8.9bn – 9.6bn |
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 11.6bn | 7.6bn | 8.8bn – 10.3bn |
| 2029 | 9.9bn | 12.5bn | 7.3bn | 8.7bn – 11.1bn |
| 2034 | 10.8bn | 14.5bn | 7.1bn | 8.5bn – 13.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.47(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.68 | 9.22 | 4.14 | 6.18 – 7.18 |
| 2027 | 6.93 | 11.33 | 2.53 | 5.92 – 7.93 |
| 2029 | 7.05 | 12.73 | 1.37 | 5.61 – 8.48 |
| 2034 | 7.14 | 15.18 | 0 | 4.77 – 9.52 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.5bn | 10.7bn | 8.3bn | 9.2bn – 9.9bn |
| 2027 | 9.9bn | 12bn | 7.9bn | 9.1bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.3bn | 13bn | 7.7bn | 9.1bn – 11.6bn |
| 2034 | 11.3bn | 15.1bn | 7.5bn | 8.9bn – 13.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.93 | 11.96 | 7.9 | 9.46 – 10.4 |
| 2028 | 7.71 | 11.23 | 4.2 | 6.81 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 5.5 | 10.04 | 0.96 | 4.36 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.42 | 0 | 0 – 1.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BIH · API docs
