Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Belarus: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.68 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5202 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Belarus: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.94 | 2.11 | -7.99 | -4.02 – -1.86 |
| 2028 | -3.62 | 5.13 | -12.37 | -5.58 – -1.66 |
| 2030 | -4.3 | 7 | -15.59 | -6.94 – -1.65 |
| 2035 | -5.99 | 9.98 | -21.96 | -10.21 – -1.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.77 | 66.34 | 42.87 | 51.11 – 56.43 |
| 2028 | 51.15 | 72.93 | 32.28 | 45.58 – 56.72 |
| 2030 | 48.53 | 76.64 | 24.17 | 40.63 – 56.43 |
| 2035 | 41.98 | 81.74 | 7.52 | 29.58 – 54.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.6bn | 109.2bn | 87.6bn | 94.6bn – 100.6bn |
| 2028 | 108.7bn | 128.8bn | 91.3bn | 100.6bn – 116.7bn |
| 2030 | 119.7bn | 145.7bn | 97.3bn | 106.1bn – 133.3bn |
| 2035 | 147.4bn | 184bn | 115.6bn | 116.8bn – 177.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.68 | 12 | -9.15 | -1.23 – 2.59 |
| 2028 | -0.54 | 12 | -10 | -3.86 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -1.77 | 12 | -10 | -6.13 – 2.6 |
| 2035 | -4.82 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8k | 12k | 9.7k | 10.4k – 11.1k |
| 2028 | 12k | 14.3k | 10.1k | 11.2k – 12.9k |
| 2030 | 13.3k | 16.2k | 10.9k | 11.8k – 14.8k |
| 2035 | 16.5k | 20.6k | 13.1k | 13.1k – 20k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.12 | 38.46 | 22.66 | 29.5 – 32.75 |
| 2028 | 27.17 | 39.87 | 12.52 | 23.91 – 30.43 |
| 2030 | 23.22 | 39.62 | 4.3 | 18.84 – 27.6 |
| 2035 | 13.34 | 36.53 | 0 | 7.64 – 19.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.17 | 69.22 | 43.12 | 53.27 – 59.07 |
| 2028 | 54.45 | 77.05 | 31.86 | 48.38 – 60.53 |
| 2030 | 52.74 | 81.92 | 23.56 | 44.05 – 61.42 |
| 2035 | 48.45 | 89.71 | 7.19 | 34.38 – 62.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.07 | 18.33 | -4.98 | 4.47 – 9.68 |
| 2028 | 8.21 | 27.7 | -5 | 3.5 – 12.93 |
| 2030 | 9.35 | 34.51 | -5 | 3.02 – 15.68 |
| 2035 | 12.2 | 47.78 | -5 | 2.36 – 22.04 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.79 | 30.41 | 21.79 | 24.72 – 26.86 |
| 2028 | 27.36 | 35.35 | 20.42 | 24.9 – 29.81 |
| 2030 | 28.92 | 39.25 | 19.97 | 25.13 – 32.71 |
| 2035 | 32.83 | 47.44 | 20.18 | 25.49 – 40.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.4m |
| 2028 | 9m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.4m – 9.7m |
| 2030 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 8m – 10m |
| 2035 | 8.9m | 9.3m | 8.5m | 7m – 10.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 15 | -5.47 | 1.8 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 15 | -9.35 | 3.06 – 8.69 |
| 2030 | 8.43 | 15 | -10 | 4.48 – 12.38 |
| 2035 | 14.81 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.2bn | 10.3bn | 4.2bn | 6.6bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8bn | 13.3bn | 2.7bn | 6.8bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 8.7bn | 15.6bn | 1.9bn | 7bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 10.6bn | 20.3bn | 930.6m | 7.4bn – 13.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 3.63 | 1.92 | 2.6 – 2.95 |
| 2028 | 2.47 | 3.95 | 0.99 | 2.12 – 2.81 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 4.23 | 0.41 | 1.84 – 2.79 |
| 2035 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.3bn | 14.7bn – 16.6bn |
| 2028 | 18.6bn | 26.1bn | 11.1bn | 16.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.6bn | 31.3bn | 11.9bn | 18.4bn – 24.8bn |
| 2035 | 28.9bn | 42.7bn | 15.2bn | 22.2bn – 35.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.24 | 3.45 | 3.03 | 3.14 – 3.34 |
| 2028 | 2.97 | 3.34 | 2.6 | 2.75 – 3.19 |
| 2030 | 2.7 | 3.17 | 2.23 | 2.39 – 3 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 2.68 | 1.35 | 1.59 – 2.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BLR · API docs
