Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Belarus: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.37 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±6.7669 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Belarus: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.19 | 1.71 | -8.09 | -4.24 – -2.14 |
| 2029 | -4.17 | 4.32 | -12.66 | -6.1 – -2.24 |
| 2031 | -5.15 | 5.8 | -16.11 | -7.8 – -2.5 |
| 2036 | -7.6 | 7.89 | -23.1 | -11.98 – -3.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.77 | 66.34 | 42.87 | 51.11 – 56.43 |
| 2028 | 51.15 | 72.93 | 32.28 | 45.58 – 56.72 |
| 2030 | 48.53 | 76.64 | 24.17 | 40.63 – 56.43 |
| 2035 | 41.98 | 81.74 | 7.52 | 29.58 – 54.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.9bn | 120.8bn | 98.6bn | 105.5bn – 112.3bn |
| 2029 | 125.6bn | 146.2bn | 107.7bn | 116.3bn – 134.9bn |
| 2031 | 142.3bn | 168.9bn | 119.2bn | 126.1bn – 158.4bn |
| 2036 | 184bn | 221.7bn | 151.3bn | 145.8bn – 222.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.37 | 11.34 | -9.15 | -1.48 – 2.21 |
| 2029 | -1.33 | 12 | -10 | -4.56 – 1.91 |
| 2031 | -3.02 | 12 | -10 | -7.35 – 1.31 |
| 2036 | -7.26 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.1k | 13.4k | 10.9k | 11.7k – 12.4k |
| 2029 | 14k | 16.2k | 12k | 12.9k – 15k |
| 2031 | 15.9k | 18.8k | 13.3k | 14.1k – 17.7k |
| 2036 | 20.6k | 24.8k | 17k | 16.3k – 24.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.2 | 38.56 | 22.7 | 29.56 – 32.83 |
| 2029 | 27.39 | 40.14 | 12.67 | 24.11 – 30.67 |
| 2031 | 23.58 | 40.05 | 4.59 | 19.16 – 28 |
| 2036 | 14.07 | 37.35 | 0 | 8.24 – 19.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.17 | 69.22 | 43.12 | 53.27 – 59.07 |
| 2028 | 54.45 | 77.05 | 31.86 | 48.38 – 60.53 |
| 2030 | 52.74 | 81.92 | 23.56 | 44.05 – 61.42 |
| 2035 | 48.45 | 89.71 | 7.19 | 34.38 – 62.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.29 | 16.91 | -5 | 3.84 – 8.75 |
| 2029 | 6.02 | 24.4 | -5 | 1.65 – 10.38 |
| 2031 | 5.74 | 29.47 | -5 | 0.02 – 11.46 |
| 2036 | 5.04 | 38.61 | -5 | -3.21 – 13.29 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.79 | 30.41 | 21.79 | 24.72 – 26.86 |
| 2028 | 27.36 | 35.35 | 20.42 | 24.9 – 29.81 |
| 2030 | 28.92 | 39.25 | 19.97 | 25.13 – 32.71 |
| 2035 | 32.83 | 47.44 | 20.18 | 25.49 – 40.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.3m |
| 2029 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 8.3m – 9.7m |
| 2031 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 7.9m – 10m |
| 2036 | 8.8m | 9.3m | 8.4m | 7m – 10.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 15 | -5.47 | 1.8 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 15 | -9.35 | 3.06 – 8.69 |
| 2030 | 8.43 | 15 | -10 | 4.48 – 12.38 |
| 2035 | 14.81 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.2bn | 10.3bn | 4.2bn | 6.6bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8bn | 13.3bn | 2.7bn | 6.8bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 8.7bn | 15.6bn | 1.9bn | 7bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 10.6bn | 20.3bn | 930.6m | 7.4bn – 13.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 3.63 | 1.92 | 2.6 – 2.95 |
| 2028 | 2.47 | 3.95 | 0.99 | 2.12 – 2.81 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 4.23 | 0.41 | 1.84 – 2.79 |
| 2035 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.3bn | 14.7bn – 16.6bn |
| 2028 | 18.6bn | 26.1bn | 11.1bn | 16.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.6bn | 31.3bn | 11.9bn | 18.4bn – 24.8bn |
| 2035 | 28.9bn | 42.7bn | 15.2bn | 22.2bn – 35.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.74 | 3.09 | 2.39 | 2.64 – 2.84 |
| 2029 | 2.42 | 3.02 | 1.82 | 2.21 – 2.63 |
| 2031 | 2.1 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 1.82 – 2.39 |
| 2036 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 0.21 | 0.93 – 1.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BLR · API docs
