Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Belize: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.8 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±1.8996 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Belize: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.94 | 4.13 | -8 | -3.2 – -0.67 |
| 2028 | -0.21 | 10.3 | -10.71 | -2.4 – 1.98 |
| 2030 | 1.52 | 15.08 | -12.04 | -1.37 – 4.41 |
| 2035 | 5.84 | 25.02 | -13.33 | 0.99 – 10.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.22(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56 | 70.55 | 43.4 | 53.03 – 58.98 |
| 2027 | 57.56 | 82.76 | 35.73 | 51.2 – 63.93 |
| 2029 | 59.12 | 91.65 | 30.93 | 49.75 – 68.5 |
| 2034 | 63.02 | 109.02 | 23.15 | 46.37 – 79.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5bn | 3.9bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 3.6bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.6bn | 3.1bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4.6bn |
| 2035 | 4.9bn | 6.5bn | 3.6bn | 3.9bn – 6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 9.06 |
| 2028 | 5.83 | 12 | -10 | -3.46 – 12 |
| 2030 | 7.85 | 12 | -10 | -4.4 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -6.36 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1k | 9.3k | 7k | 7.8k – 8.4k |
| 2028 | 8.7k | 10.8k | 6.9k | 8k – 9.3k |
| 2030 | 9.3k | 12k | 6.9k | 8.2k – 10.3k |
| 2035 | 10.7k | 14.5k | 7.4k | 8.5k – 13k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.39 | 87.71 | 39.64 | 60.91 – 69.87 |
| 2028 | 62.37 | 101.03 | 17.77 | 53.43 – 71.31 |
| 2030 | 59.35 | 109.26 | 1.77 | 46.93 – 71.78 |
| 2035 | 51.81 | 122.39 | 0 | 32.66 – 70.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 54.63 | 63.03 | 46.23 | 52.47 – 56.79 |
| 2027 | 56.39 | 70.94 | 41.84 | 51.46 – 61.32 |
| 2029 | 58.15 | 76.94 | 39.36 | 50.62 – 65.68 |
| 2034 | 62.55 | 89.12 | 35.98 | 48.48 – 76.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.29 | 5.14 | -4.9 | -0.8 – 1.38 |
| 2028 | -2.83 | 5.57 | -5 | -4.82 – -0.83 |
| 2030 | -5 | 5.84 | -5 | -5 – -2.2 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.33 | -5 | -5 – -0.8 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.55 | 23.38 | 19.96 | 20.88 – 22.22 |
| 2027 | 22.73 | 25.91 | 19.98 | 21.05 – 24.41 |
| 2029 | 23.91 | 28.02 | 20.36 | 21.2 – 26.63 |
| 2034 | 26.87 | 32.67 | 21.84 | 21.3 – 32.44 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed422.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 421.1k | 441k | 402.6k | 408k – 434.1k |
| 2028 | 427.5k | 447.7k | 408.8k | 395.9k – 459.1k |
| 2030 | 433.9k | 454.4k | 414.9k | 384.7k – 483.2k |
| 2035 | 450k | 471.3k | 430.3k | 356.7k – 543.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 12.71 | -10 | -6.45 – -2.07 |
| 2028 | -7.98 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.92 |
| 2030 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.46 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.69 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 4.86 | 2.02 | 3.17 – 3.71 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 5.84 | 0.91 | 2.84 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.53 | 0.16 | 2.59 – 4.1 |
| 2035 | 3.32 | 7.83 | 0 | 2.1 – 4.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.43 | 9.81 | 7.06 | 8.09 – 8.78 |
| 2028 | 7.59 | 9.98 | 5.2 | 6.86 – 8.32 |
| 2030 | 6.75 | 9.83 | 3.67 | 5.74 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 4.64 | 9 | 0.28 | 3.23 – 6.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BLZ · API docs
