Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Belize: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.98 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±7.4047 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Belize: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.81 | 2.02 | -9.65 | -5.06 – -2.56 |
| 2029 | -2.44 | 7.66 | -12.54 | -4.62 – -0.26 |
| 2031 | -1.07 | 11.98 | -14.11 | -3.81 – 1.68 |
| 2036 | 2.37 | 20.81 | -16.08 | -1.77 – 6.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.22(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56 | 70.55 | 43.4 | 53.03 – 58.98 |
| 2027 | 57.56 | 82.76 | 35.73 | 51.2 – 63.93 |
| 2029 | 59.12 | 91.65 | 30.93 | 49.75 – 68.5 |
| 2034 | 63.02 | 109.02 | 23.15 | 46.37 – 79.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6bn | 4bn | 3.2bn | 3.5bn – 3.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.9bn | 4.7bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 4.2bn |
| 2031 | 4.2bn | 5.3bn | 3.3bn | 3.7bn – 4.7bn |
| 2036 | 5bn | 6.5bn | 3.7bn | 4bn – 6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.98 | 10.96 | -7.67 | -0.7 – 2.66 |
| 2029 | -1.9 | 12 | -10 | -4.88 – 1.07 |
| 2031 | -4.79 | 12 | -10 | -8.89 – -0.68 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.4k | 9.6k | 7.3k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2029 | 8.9k | 11k | 7.1k | 8.3k – 9.6k |
| 2031 | 9.5k | 12.2k | 7.2k | 8.4k – 10.6k |
| 2036 | 11k | 14.8k | 7.7k | 8.7k – 13.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.78 | 82.44 | 35.79 | 56.47 – 65.08 |
| 2029 | 55.93 | 93.45 | 12.65 | 47.48 – 64.39 |
| 2031 | 51.09 | 99.52 | 0 | 39.55 – 62.63 |
| 2036 | 38.98 | 107.47 | 0 | 22.2 – 55.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 54.63 | 63.03 | 46.23 | 52.47 – 56.79 |
| 2027 | 56.39 | 70.94 | 41.84 | 51.46 – 61.32 |
| 2029 | 58.15 | 76.94 | 39.36 | 50.62 – 65.68 |
| 2034 | 62.55 | 89.12 | 35.98 | 48.48 – 76.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.91 | 5.82 | -2.28 | 1.02 – 2.81 |
| 2029 | 2.52 | 9.3 | -4.73 | 0.9 – 4.15 |
| 2031 | 3.14 | 11.88 | -5 | 0.95 – 5.33 |
| 2036 | 4.67 | 17.04 | -5 | 1.18 – 8.16 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.55 | 23.38 | 19.96 | 20.88 – 22.22 |
| 2027 | 22.73 | 25.91 | 19.98 | 21.05 – 24.41 |
| 2029 | 23.91 | 28.02 | 20.36 | 21.2 – 26.63 |
| 2034 | 26.87 | 32.67 | 21.84 | 21.3 – 32.44 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed422.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 421.8k | 441.8k | 403.3k | 408.8k – 434.9k |
| 2029 | 423k | 443k | 404.5k | 391.7k – 454.3k |
| 2031 | 424.2k | 444.2k | 405.6k | 376k – 472.4k |
| 2036 | 427.2k | 447.3k | 408.4k | 338.5k – 515.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 12.71 | -10 | -6.45 – -2.07 |
| 2028 | -7.98 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.92 |
| 2030 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.46 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.69 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 4.86 | 2.02 | 3.17 – 3.71 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 5.84 | 0.91 | 2.84 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.53 | 0.16 | 2.59 – 4.1 |
| 2035 | 3.32 | 7.83 | 0 | 2.1 – 4.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.53 | 6.35 | 0 | 0.76 – 2.29 |
| 2029 | 0 | 8.35 | 0 | 0 – 1.33 |
| 2031 | 0 | 10.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.73 |
| 2036 | 0 | 15.25 | 0 | 0 – 2.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BLZ · API docs
