Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bermuda: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.9375 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bermuda: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed55.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.76 | 60.94 | 51.26 | 54.03 – 57.48 |
| 2027 | 56.97 | 65.96 | 49.19 | 52.76 – 61.19 |
| 2029 | 58.19 | 69.79 | 48.14 | 51.58 – 64.8 |
| 2034 | 61.24 | 77.64 | 47.03 | 48.53 – 73.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.6bn | 10.5bn | 8.9bn | 9.3bn – 9.9bn |
| 2027 | 10.6bn | 12.1bn | 9.3bn | 9.8bn – 11.4bn |
| 2029 | 11.6bn | 13.5bn | 9.9bn | 10.3bn – 12.9bn |
| 2034 | 14.1bn | 16.8bn | 11.8bn | 11.2bn – 17bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 12 | -10 | -1.24 – 3.24 |
| 2027 | -0.77 | 12 | -10 | -4.67 – 3.13 |
| 2029 | -2.54 | 12 | -10 | -7.72 – 2.64 |
| 2034 | -6.96 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.19 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed142.3k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 148.3k | 162k | 136.5k | 143.7k – 152.9k |
| 2027 | 163.4k | 187.1k | 142.8k | 151.3k – 175.5k |
| 2029 | 178.4k | 209k | 151.8k | 158.1k – 198.7k |
| 2034 | 216k | 250k | 178.4k | 171.2k – 250k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.15 | 28.56 | 21.74 | 24.23 – 26.07 |
| 2027 | 25.33 | 31.23 | 19.43 | 23.21 – 27.45 |
| 2029 | 25.51 | 33.13 | 17.89 | 22.3 – 28.72 |
| 2034 | 25.96 | 36.73 | 15.19 | 20.16 – 31.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.57 | 13.07 | 8.41 | 10.05 – 11.1 |
| 2027 | 9.42 | 13.74 | 5.67 | 8.35 – 10.48 |
| 2029 | 8.26 | 13.84 | 3.42 | 6.8 – 9.71 |
| 2034 | 5.36 | 13.25 | 0 | 3.37 – 7.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.6k | 67.6k | 61.7k | 62.6k – 66.6k |
| 2028 | 64.5k | 67.5k | 61.6k | 59.7k – 69.2k |
| 2030 | 64.4k | 67.4k | 61.5k | 57.1k – 71.7k |
| 2035 | 64.2k | 67.2k | 61.3k | 50.8k – 77.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BMU · API docs
