Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bolivia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 75/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -4.63 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±6.0188 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bolivia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.16 | 6.24 | -3.91 | 0.11 – 2.22 |
| 2029 | 1.09 | 9.88 | -7.7 | -0.75 – 2.94 |
| 2031 | 1.02 | 12.37 | -10.32 | -1.38 – 3.42 |
| 2036 | 0.84 | 16.89 | -15.2 | -2.59 – 4.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.07 | 30.12 | 15.09 | 20.57 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 23.34 | 37.29 | 11.25 | 20.23 – 26.46 |
| 2029 | 24.62 | 42.62 | 9.01 | 20.07 – 29.16 |
| 2034 | 27.8 | 53.26 | 5.72 | 19.71 – 35.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.6bn | 100.5bn | 74.6bn | 83.6bn – 89.7bn |
| 2029 | 101.4bn | 125.4bn | 80.7bn | 93.7bn – 109.2bn |
| 2031 | 116.2bn | 147.2bn | 89.4bn | 103bn – 129.4bn |
| 2036 | 153.3bn | 197bn | 115.3bn | 121.5bn – 185bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.63 | -0.24 | -8.43 | -5.43 – -3.82 |
| 2029 | -7.85 | -0.24 | -10 | -9.49 – -6.2 |
| 2031 | -10 | -0.18 | -10 | -10 – -7.56 |
| 2036 | -10 | 3.88 | -10 | -10 – -6.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.7k | 7.8k | 5.8k | 6.5k – 7k |
| 2029 | 7.8k | 9.7k | 6.1k | 7.2k – 8.4k |
| 2031 | 8.8k | 11.3k | 6.7k | 7.8k – 9.8k |
| 2036 | 11.4k | 14.9k | 8.4k | 9.1k – 13.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed102.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.98 | 121.02 | 95.08 | 105.38 – 112.57 |
| 2029 | 121.53 | 142.39 | 97.46 | 112.49 – 130.58 |
| 2031 | 134.09 | 161.02 | 103.02 | 118.86 – 149.31 |
| 2036 | 165.48 | 203.56 | 121.53 | 131.15 – 199.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.54(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.72 | 32.34 | 19.1 | 24.3 – 27.15 |
| 2027 | 26.08 | 37.55 | 14.61 | 23.07 – 29.09 |
| 2029 | 26.44 | 41.25 | 11.63 | 22.06 – 30.82 |
| 2034 | 27.33 | 48.28 | 6.39 | 19.76 – 34.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.8 | 30.45 | 8.39 | 17.12 – 22.48 |
| 2029 | 21.45 | 39.9 | 1.69 | 16.34 – 26.57 |
| 2031 | 23.11 | 46.93 | -2.41 | 15.98 – 30.24 |
| 2036 | 27.25 | 50 | -5 | 15.42 – 39.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.26 | 21.75 | 11.51 | 15.22 – 17.31 |
| 2027 | 15.23 | 24.73 | 7 | 13.14 – 17.32 |
| 2029 | 14.2 | 26.46 | 3.57 | 11.31 – 17.08 |
| 2034 | 11.61 | 28.95 | 0 | 7.28 – 15.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.7m | 13.3m | 12.1m | 12.3m – 13.1m |
| 2029 | 12.9m | 13.5m | 12.3m | 11.9m – 13.8m |
| 2031 | 13.1m | 13.7m | 12.5m | 11.6m – 14.6m |
| 2036 | 13.5m | 14.2m | 12.9m | 10.7m – 16.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.59 | 2.78 | -10 | -5.58 – -3.59 |
| 2028 | -5.83 | 6.93 | -10 | -7.7 – -3.95 |
| 2030 | -7.07 | 9.4 | -10 | -9.69 – -4.44 |
| 2035 | -10 | 13.29 | -10 | -10 – -5.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 189.4m | 2.2bn | 0 | 0 – 492.8m |
| 2028 | 0 | 3.4bn | 0 | 0 – 520.4m |
| 2030 | 0 | 4.4bn | 0 | 0 – 671.8m |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.2bn | 0 | 0 – 950.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.96 | 4.16 | 0 | 1.59 – 2.32 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 7.48 | 0 | 2.9 – 4.42 |
| 2030 | 4.5 | 9.43 | 0 | 3.39 – 5.62 |
| 2035 | 5.17 | 12.14 | 0 | 3.27 – 7.06 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 1.6bn | 0 | 0 – 244.2m |
| 2028 | 0 | 2.8bn | 0 | 0 – 423m |
| 2030 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 546.1m |
| 2035 | 0 | 5bn | 0 | 0 – 772.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.37 | 6.35 | 2.4 | 4 – 4.75 |
| 2029 | 4.12 | 7.54 | 0.7 | 3.4 – 4.84 |
| 2031 | 3.86 | 8.28 | 0 | 2.88 – 4.85 |
| 2036 | 3.23 | 9.48 | 0 | 1.76 – 4.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BOL · API docs
