Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bolivia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 66/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -2.53 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7734 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bolivia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.83 | 2.83 | -6.5 | -2.82 – -0.85 |
| 2028 | -1.7 | 6.38 | -9.79 | -3.44 – 0.03 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 8.87 | -12.01 | -3.83 – 0.68 |
| 2035 | -1.25 | 13.52 | -16.01 | -4.46 – 1.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.07 | 30.12 | 15.09 | 20.57 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 23.34 | 37.29 | 11.25 | 20.23 – 26.46 |
| 2029 | 24.62 | 42.62 | 9.01 | 20.07 – 29.16 |
| 2034 | 27.8 | 53.26 | 5.72 | 19.71 – 35.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.4bn | 77.3bn | 58.9bn | 65.2bn – 69.7bn |
| 2028 | 74.4bn | 91.5bn | 59.6bn | 68.8bn – 80bn |
| 2030 | 81.4bn | 103.4bn | 62.3bn | 72.1bn – 90.6bn |
| 2035 | 98.8bn | 129.9bn | 71.7bn | 78.3bn – 119.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.53 | 12 | -10 | -6.23 – 1.18 |
| 2028 | -4.61 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.95 |
| 2030 | -6.7 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.03 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 6.1k | 4.6k | 5.1k – 5.5k |
| 2028 | 5.8k | 7.2k | 4.5k | 5.3k – 6.2k |
| 2030 | 6.2k | 8k | 4.6k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2035 | 7.3k | 9.9k | 5.1k | 5.8k – 8.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed102.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.5 | 100.23 | 79.29 | 87.56 – 93.45 |
| 2028 | 101.91 | 118.75 | 82.48 | 94.37 – 109.45 |
| 2030 | 113.32 | 135.06 | 88.23 | 100.45 – 126.18 |
| 2035 | 141.84 | 172.58 | 106.36 | 112.41 – 171.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.54(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.72 | 32.34 | 19.1 | 24.3 – 27.15 |
| 2027 | 26.08 | 37.55 | 14.61 | 23.07 – 29.09 |
| 2029 | 26.44 | 41.25 | 11.63 | 22.06 – 30.82 |
| 2034 | 27.33 | 48.28 | 6.39 | 19.76 – 34.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.03 | 36.03 | 13.24 | 22.19 – 27.87 |
| 2028 | 45.21 | 50 | 24.79 | 38.82 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 23.63 | 40.54 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | 12.71 | 34.29 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.26 | 21.75 | 11.51 | 15.22 – 17.31 |
| 2027 | 15.23 | 24.73 | 7 | 13.14 – 17.32 |
| 2029 | 14.2 | 26.46 | 3.57 | 11.31 – 17.08 |
| 2034 | 11.61 | 28.95 | 0 | 7.28 – 15.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 12m | 12.2m – 12.9m |
| 2028 | 12.7m | 13.3m | 12.2m | 11.8m – 13.7m |
| 2030 | 12.9m | 13.5m | 12.3m | 11.4m – 14.4m |
| 2035 | 13.4m | 14m | 12.8m | 10.6m – 16.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.59 | 2.78 | -10 | -5.58 – -3.59 |
| 2028 | -5.83 | 6.93 | -10 | -7.7 – -3.95 |
| 2030 | -7.07 | 9.4 | -10 | -9.69 – -4.44 |
| 2035 | -10 | 13.29 | -10 | -10 – -5.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 189.4m | 2.2bn | 0 | 0 – 492.8m |
| 2028 | 0 | 3.4bn | 0 | 0 – 520.4m |
| 2030 | 0 | 4.4bn | 0 | 0 – 671.8m |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.2bn | 0 | 0 – 950.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.96 | 4.16 | 0 | 1.59 – 2.32 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 7.48 | 0 | 2.9 – 4.42 |
| 2030 | 4.5 | 9.43 | 0 | 3.39 – 5.62 |
| 2035 | 5.17 | 12.14 | 0 | 3.27 – 7.06 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 1.6bn | 0 | 0 – 244.2m |
| 2028 | 0 | 2.8bn | 0 | 0 – 423m |
| 2030 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 546.1m |
| 2035 | 0 | 5bn | 0 | 0 – 772.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.09 | 4.21 | 0 | 1.73 – 2.45 |
| 2028 | 0.34 | 4.01 | 0 | 0 – 0.95 |
| 2030 | 0 | 4.74 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BOL · API docs
