Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Brazil: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 54/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.32 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-14% skill vs naive; realized ±5.7384 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Brazil: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.74 | -0.64 | -4.84 | -3.21 – -2.26 |
| 2029 | -2.81 | 0.83 | -6.45 | -3.68 – -1.93 |
| 2031 | -2.88 | 1.82 | -7.58 | -4.07 – -1.69 |
| 2036 | -3.06 | 3.59 | -9.7 | -4.9 – -1.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.37 | 21.38 | 15.77 | 17.65 – 19.1 |
| 2028 | 19.48 | 24.69 | 14.97 | 17.8 – 21.16 |
| 2030 | 20.59 | 27.31 | 14.76 | 17.98 – 23.19 |
| 2035 | 23.35 | 32.86 | 15.11 | 18.26 – 28.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.7T | 3.2T | 2.3T | 2.6T – 2.8T |
| 2029 | 3T | 3.9T | 2.3T | 2.8T – 3.3T |
| 2031 | 3.3T | 4.4T | 2.3T | 2.9T – 3.7T |
| 2036 | 4T | 5.5T | 2.6T | 3.2T – 4.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.32 | 2.93 | -0.07 | 1.03 – 1.61 |
| 2029 | 0.02 | 2.81 | -2.39 | -0.49 – 0.54 |
| 2031 | -1.27 | 2.32 | -4.39 | -1.97 – -0.57 |
| 2036 | -4.51 | 0.57 | -8.92 | -6.08 – -2.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.8k | 15.1k | 10.7k | 12.3k – 13.2k |
| 2029 | 14k | 18k | 10.4k | 12.8k – 15.1k |
| 2031 | 15.2k | 20.4k | 10.6k | 13.3k – 17k |
| 2036 | 18.2k | 25.6k | 11.8k | 14.4k – 22k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed96.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 97.36 | 105.99 | 87.41 | 94.34 – 100.38 |
| 2029 | 99.09 | 114.02 | 81.85 | 91.76 – 106.42 |
| 2031 | 100.81 | 120.09 | 78.56 | 89.36 – 112.26 |
| 2036 | 105.12 | 132.39 | 73.65 | 83.31 – 126.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.91 | 21.52 | 14.31 | 17.08 – 18.75 |
| 2028 | 18.8 | 25.04 | 12.56 | 16.94 – 20.66 |
| 2030 | 19.68 | 27.74 | 11.63 | 16.88 – 22.49 |
| 2035 | 21.9 | 33.29 | 10.51 | 16.65 – 27.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.58 | 7.71 | -0.85 | 2.6 – 4.55 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 9.31 | -5 | 0.46 – 3.84 |
| 2031 | 0.73 | 9.97 | -5 | -1.4 – 2.86 |
| 2036 | -2.83 | 10.24 | -5 | -5 – 0.52 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.79 | 18.56 | 15.27 | 16.27 – 17.31 |
| 2028 | 16.73 | 19.79 | 14.09 | 15.49 – 17.97 |
| 2030 | 16.67 | 20.61 | 13.26 | 14.78 – 18.57 |
| 2035 | 16.52 | 22.1 | 11.69 | 13.08 – 19.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed212.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 213.9m | 224m | 204.5m | 207.3m – 220.5m |
| 2029 | 215.3m | 225.5m | 205.9m | 199.4m – 231.2m |
| 2031 | 216.7m | 226.9m | 207.2m | 192.1m – 241.3m |
| 2036 | 220.2m | 230.6m | 210.5m | 174.5m – 265.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.63 | 11.04 | -5.43 | 0.43 – 2.83 |
| 2028 | 3.02 | 15 | -9.21 | 0.84 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 4.41 | 15 | -10 | 1.43 – 7.39 |
| 2035 | 7.88 | 15 | -10 | 2.9 – 12.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 334bn | 377.2bn | 290.7bn | 322bn – 345.9bn |
| 2028 | 332.2bn | 407.1bn | 257.2bn | 304.8bn – 359.6bn |
| 2030 | 330.4bn | 427.1bn | 233.6bn | 289.1bn – 371.6bn |
| 2035 | 325.9bn | 462.7bn | 189.1bn | 252.8bn – 399bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.41 | 13.14 | 5.68 | 8.69 – 10.13 |
| 2028 | 10.58 | 17.04 | 4.12 | 9.09 – 12.08 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 19.5 | 2.82 | 8.99 – 13.33 |
| 2035 | 11.62 | 23.41 | 0 | 7.96 – 15.28 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed358.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 361.3bn | 408.9bn | 313.8bn | 348.3bn – 374.4bn |
| 2028 | 367.7bn | 450.1bn | 285.3bn | 337.5bn – 398bn |
| 2030 | 374.1bn | 480.5bn | 267.8bn | 327.9bn – 420.3bn |
| 2035 | 390.1bn | 540.6bn | 239.7bn | 304.7bn – 475.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.58 | 8.57 | 2.58 | 5.03 – 6.13 |
| 2029 | 3.14 | 8.33 | 0 | 2.19 – 4.08 |
| 2031 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 – 1.8 |
| 2036 | 0 | 9.47 | 0 | 0 – 1.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BRA · API docs
