Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Barbados: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±1.9444 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Barbados: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.35 | -1.13 | -11.58 | -7.52 – -5.19 |
| 2028 | -7.26 | 1.78 | -16.31 | -9.46 – -5.07 |
| 2030 | -8.17 | 3.5 | -19.85 | -11.21 – -5.14 |
| 2035 | -10.45 | 6.06 | -26.96 | -15.49 – -5.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 9.3bn | 7.4bn | 8bn – 8.5bn |
| 2028 | 9bn | 10.8bn | 7.5bn | 8.3bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.7bn | 12bn | 7.8bn | 8.6bn – 10.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.5bn | 14.7bn | 8.7bn | 9.1bn – 13.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 12 | -10 | -0.83 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 12 | -10 | -2.23 – 12 |
| 2030 | 7.99 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.19 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.3k | 32.9k | 26.2k | 28.4k – 30.2k |
| 2028 | 31.8k | 38.1k | 26.4k | 29.5k – 34.2k |
| 2030 | 34.3k | 42.4k | 27.3k | 30.4k – 38.2k |
| 2035 | 40.6k | 52k | 30.6k | 32.1k – 49k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.82 | 120.04 | 61.42 | 87.15 – 98.49 |
| 2028 | 86.07 | 133.21 | 31.67 | 74.68 – 97.45 |
| 2030 | 79.31 | 140.17 | 9.09 | 63.6 – 95.02 |
| 2035 | 62.42 | 148.49 | 0 | 39.19 – 85.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.77 | 4.18 | -2.88 | -0 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | -0.07 | 5.83 | -5 | -1.42 – 1.29 |
| 2030 | -0.91 | 6.7 | -5 | -2.68 – 0.86 |
| 2035 | -3.01 | 7.76 | -5 | -5 – -0.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.6k | 295.9k | 270.2k | 273.8k – 291.3k |
| 2028 | 282.8k | 296.1k | 270.4k | 261.8k – 303.7k |
| 2030 | 282.9k | 296.3k | 270.5k | 250.8k – 315.1k |
| 2035 | 283.4k | 296.7k | 270.9k | 224.6k – 342.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 15 | -10 | -0.24 – 6.15 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.48 – 8.74 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 15 | -10 | -4 – 10.62 |
| 2035 | 3.75 | 15 | -10 | -6.81 – 14.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.75 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 1.56 – 1.95 |
| 2020 | 2.35 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 1.95 – 2.74 |
| 2022 | 2.64 | 5.01 | 0.26 | 2.06 – 3.21 |
| 2027 | 2.87 | 6.23 | 0 | 1.9 – 3.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53 | 8.51 | 2.56 | 4.99 – 6.08 |
| 2028 | 3.55 | 8.7 | 0 | 2.59 – 4.51 |
| 2030 | 1.56 | 8.21 | 0 | 0.42 – 2.71 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.4 | 0 | 0 – 1.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BRB · API docs
