Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Brunei: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.71 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±1.8863 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Brunei: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed14.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.14 | 24.58 | 5.71 | 12.98 – 17.31 |
| 2028 | 18.03 | 30 | 1.68 | 13.83 – 22.23 |
| 2030 | 20.92 | 30 | -0.19 | 14.94 – 26.9 |
| 2035 | 28.14 | 30 | -1.71 | 17.55 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.94 | 95.14 | 57.44 | 70.86 – 79.03 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 116.67 | 51.37 | 72.77 – 90.61 |
| 2030 | 88.44 | 133.6 | 49.3 | 74.91 – 101.96 |
| 2035 | 105.3 | 150 | 49.95 | 79.33 – 131.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.9bn | 18bn | 12.1bn | 14.3bn – 15.5bn |
| 2028 | 14.6bn | 20bn | 9.9bn | 13.2bn – 15.9bn |
| 2030 | 14.3bn | 21.4bn | 8.2bn | 12.4bn – 16.3bn |
| 2035 | 13.7bn | 23.6bn | 5.1bn | 10.3bn – 17bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.71 | 6.27 | -4.1 | -0.23 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 0.81 | 10.43 | -7.53 | -0.84 – 2.46 |
| 2030 | 0.9 | 12 | -9.86 | -1.25 – 3.05 |
| 2035 | 1.13 | 12 | -10 | -1.98 – 4.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.7k | 38.7k | 25.7k | 30.4k – 33k |
| 2028 | 30.6k | 42.7k | 20.2k | 27.7k – 33.6k |
| 2030 | 29.6k | 45.2k | 16.1k | 25.4k – 33.8k |
| 2035 | 27k | 49k | 7.9k | 20.1k – 34k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.36 | 2.07 | 0.53 | 1.22 – 1.49 |
| 2028 | 1.07 | 2.31 | 0 | 0.82 – 1.31 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 2.38 | 0 | 0.45 – 1.11 |
| 2035 | 0.06 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.52 | 67.28 | 39.76 | 50.56 – 56.48 |
| 2028 | 56.49 | 80.33 | 32.65 | 50.13 – 62.85 |
| 2030 | 59.45 | 90.23 | 28.68 | 49.99 – 68.92 |
| 2035 | 66.87 | 110.39 | 23.34 | 49.51 – 84.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.13 | 3.32 | -3.83 | -0.91 – 0.65 |
| 2028 | -0.01 | 5.97 | -5 | -1.38 – 1.37 |
| 2030 | 0.11 | 7.83 | -5 | -1.68 – 1.9 |
| 2035 | 0.41 | 11.33 | -5 | -2.17 – 2.99 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.39 | 34.88 | 19.03 | 24.75 – 28.02 |
| 2028 | 24.57 | 39.28 | 11.82 | 21.29 – 27.85 |
| 2030 | 22.75 | 41.74 | 6.29 | 18.22 – 27.28 |
| 2035 | 18.2 | 45.06 | 0 | 11.45 – 24.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed466.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 465.3k | 487.3k | 444.9k | 450.9k – 479.7k |
| 2028 | 469.3k | 491.4k | 448.7k | 434.6k – 504k |
| 2030 | 473.2k | 495.6k | 452.5k | 419.5k – 527k |
| 2035 | 483.2k | 506k | 462k | 382.9k – 583.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.82 | 9.3 | -5.53 | -0.25 – 1.9 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 15 | -8.82 | 0.24 – 4.12 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 15 | -10 | 0.89 – 6.2 |
| 2035 | 6.94 | 15 | -10 | 2.48 – 11.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 6bn | 3.7bn | 4.6bn – 5.1bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 7bn | 3bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.1bn | 7.7bn | 2.5bn | 4.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 9.1bn | 1.8bn | 4bn – 6.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 10.11 | 5.06 | 7.08 – 8.1 |
| 2028 | 7.21 | 11.59 | 2.83 | 6.19 – 8.22 |
| 2030 | 7.02 | 12.67 | 1.37 | 5.6 – 8.45 |
| 2035 | 6.87 | 14.87 | 0 | 4.55 – 9.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6bn | 6.8bn | 4.4bn | 5.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.2bn | 8.9bn | 3.5bn | 5.3bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.8bn | 3.2bn | 5.3bn – 8.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 7.05 | 2.95 | 4.61 – 5.39 |
| 2028 | 4.44 | 8 | 0.89 | 3.69 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 3.89 | 8.47 | 0 | 2.87 – 4.9 |
| 2035 | 2.5 | 8.98 | 0 | 1.1 – 3.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BRN · API docs
