Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Brunei: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±5.4305 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Brunei: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed14.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.76 | 25.15 | 6.37 | 13.59 – 17.93 |
| 2029 | 18.28 | 30 | 2.02 | 14.09 – 22.48 |
| 2031 | 20.8 | 30 | -0.19 | 14.86 – 26.75 |
| 2036 | 27.11 | 30 | -2.58 | 16.71 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.94 | 95.14 | 57.44 | 70.86 – 79.03 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 116.67 | 51.37 | 72.77 – 90.61 |
| 2030 | 88.44 | 133.6 | 49.3 | 74.91 – 101.96 |
| 2035 | 105.3 | 150 | 49.95 | 79.33 – 131.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.2bn | 20.6bn | 14.3bn | 16.6bn – 17.9bn |
| 2029 | 18.2bn | 24bn | 13.2bn | 16.7bn – 19.8bn |
| 2031 | 19.2bn | 26.7bn | 12.8bn | 16.8bn – 21.6bn |
| 2036 | 21.7bn | 32.3bn | 12.6bn | 17bn – 26.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.39 | 7.34 | -1.91 | 1.52 – 3.25 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 10.73 | -5.28 | 0.62 – 3.69 |
| 2031 | 1.92 | 12 | -7.68 | -0.08 – 3.92 |
| 2036 | 1.34 | 12 | -10 | -1.48 – 4.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.9k | 44.4k | 30.5k | 35.5k – 38.4k |
| 2029 | 38.7k | 51.6k | 27.5k | 35.3k – 42.1k |
| 2031 | 40.5k | 57.2k | 26k | 35.3k – 45.7k |
| 2036 | 45k | 68.6k | 24.5k | 35k – 55k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.41 | 2.11 | 0.59 | 1.28 – 1.54 |
| 2029 | 1.22 | 2.45 | 0 | 0.97 – 1.47 |
| 2031 | 1.04 | 2.62 | 0 | 0.71 – 1.36 |
| 2036 | 0.57 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.07 – 1.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.52 | 67.28 | 39.76 | 50.56 – 56.48 |
| 2028 | 56.49 | 80.33 | 32.65 | 50.13 – 62.85 |
| 2030 | 59.45 | 90.23 | 28.68 | 49.99 – 68.92 |
| 2035 | 66.87 | 110.39 | 23.34 | 49.51 – 84.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 6.36 | -1.85 | 1.48 – 3.31 |
| 2029 | 5.06 | 11.92 | -2.29 | 3.3 – 6.82 |
| 2031 | 7.72 | 16.58 | -1.77 | 5.14 – 10.31 |
| 2036 | 14.38 | 26.91 | 0.96 | 9.31 – 19.46 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.39 | 34.88 | 19.03 | 24.75 – 28.02 |
| 2028 | 24.57 | 39.28 | 11.82 | 21.29 – 27.85 |
| 2030 | 22.75 | 41.74 | 6.29 | 18.22 – 27.28 |
| 2035 | 18.2 | 45.06 | 0 | 11.45 – 24.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed466.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 463.5k | 485.4k | 443.2k | 449.1k – 477.9k |
| 2029 | 462k | 483.9k | 441.8k | 427.9k – 496.2k |
| 2031 | 460.6k | 482.3k | 440.4k | 408.3k – 512.9k |
| 2036 | 456.9k | 478.5k | 436.9k | 362.1k – 551.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.82 | 9.3 | -5.53 | -0.25 – 1.9 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 15 | -8.82 | 0.24 – 4.12 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 15 | -10 | 0.89 – 6.2 |
| 2035 | 6.94 | 15 | -10 | 2.48 – 11.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 6bn | 3.7bn | 4.6bn – 5.1bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 7bn | 3bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.1bn | 7.7bn | 2.5bn | 4.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 9.1bn | 1.8bn | 4bn – 6.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 10.11 | 5.06 | 7.08 – 8.1 |
| 2028 | 7.21 | 11.59 | 2.83 | 6.19 – 8.22 |
| 2030 | 7.02 | 12.67 | 1.37 | 5.6 – 8.45 |
| 2035 | 6.87 | 14.87 | 0 | 4.55 – 9.2 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6bn | 6.8bn | 4.4bn | 5.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.2bn | 8.9bn | 3.5bn | 5.3bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.8bn | 3.2bn | 5.3bn – 8.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.67 | 5.26 | 4.09 | 4.51 – 4.84 |
| 2029 | 4.62 | 5.63 | 3.62 | 4.25 – 5 |
| 2031 | 4.57 | 5.87 | 3.27 | 4.01 – 5.14 |
| 2036 | 4.45 | 6.29 | 2.61 | 3.45 – 5.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BRN · API docs
