Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bhutan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.86 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±2.8633 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bhutan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-16.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.9 | 1.71 | -30 | -20.97 – -12.83 |
| 2028 | -18.7 | 13.53 | -30 | -26.18 – -11.22 |
| 2030 | -20.5 | 21.11 | -30 | -30 – -10.37 |
| 2035 | -25 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -8.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.5 | 37.05 | 26.69 | 30.21 – 32.8 |
| 2027 | 31.52 | 41.12 | 23.19 | 28.63 – 34.4 |
| 2029 | 31.53 | 43.93 | 20.78 | 27.24 – 35.82 |
| 2034 | 31.56 | 49.11 | 16.36 | 24.01 – 39.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.7bn | 4.1bn | 3.4bn | 3.6bn – 3.9bn |
| 2028 | 4.1bn | 4.8bn | 3.5bn | 3.8bn – 4.4bn |
| 2030 | 4.5bn | 5.4bn | 3.8bn | 4bn – 5bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 6.8bn | 4.4bn | 4.4bn – 6.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.86 | 12 | -0.35 | 7.74 – 11.98 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -5.68 | 8.02 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.65 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.87 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7k | 5.2k | 4.2k | 4.5k – 4.8k |
| 2028 | 5.1k | 6k | 4.4k | 4.7k – 5.5k |
| 2030 | 5.6k | 6.7k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 6.2k |
| 2035 | 6.7k | 8.3k | 5.3k | 5.3k – 8.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed116.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.59 | 116.45 | 88.75 | 99.95 – 107.23 |
| 2028 | 105.57 | 127.85 | 79.86 | 97.08 – 114.07 |
| 2030 | 107.55 | 136.32 | 74.36 | 94.52 – 120.58 |
| 2035 | 112.5 | 153.18 | 65.56 | 88.24 – 136.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48.6 | 60.85 | 36.35 | 45.95 – 51.25 |
| 2027 | 50.06 | 71.28 | 28.84 | 44.41 – 55.72 |
| 2029 | 51.53 | 78.92 | 24.13 | 43.21 – 59.84 |
| 2034 | 55.19 | 93.93 | 16.45 | 40.43 – 69.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.05 | 6.89 | 1.01 | 3.36 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 10.08 | -0.1 | 3.83 – 6.5 |
| 2030 | 6.28 | 12.62 | -0.53 | 4.37 – 8.18 |
| 2035 | 9.05 | 18.03 | -0.56 | 5.62 – 12.49 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41.09 | 56.19 | 28.01 | 38.28 – 43.91 |
| 2027 | 38.29 | 64.45 | 15.63 | 32.72 – 43.87 |
| 2029 | 35.5 | 69.26 | 6.23 | 27.83 – 43.16 |
| 2034 | 28.5 | 70 | 0 | 17.12 – 39.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed796.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 795.3k | 832.8k | 760.4k | 770.6k – 819.9k |
| 2028 | 800.9k | 838.8k | 765.8k | 741.7k – 860.2k |
| 2030 | 806.6k | 844.7k | 771.2k | 715k – 898.2k |
| 2035 | 820.8k | 859.6k | 784.8k | 650.5k – 991k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.41 | 15 | -10 | 3.05 – 9.77 |
| 2028 | 6.64 | 15 | -10 | 0.68 – 12.6 |
| 2030 | 6.87 | 15 | -10 | -0.96 – 14.71 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 15 | -10 | -4.05 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.7bn | 717.3m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 2.2bn | 484.1m | 1.2bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 2.6bn | 365.6m | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.8bn | 3.4bn | 237.3m | 1.3bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.21 | 11.89 | 2.54 | 6.38 – 8.04 |
| 2027 | 7.92 | 16.02 | 0 | 6.3 – 9.54 |
| 2029 | 8.27 | 18.73 | 0 | 6.01 – 10.53 |
| 2034 | 8.55 | 23.33 | 0 | 4.92 – 12.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.8bn | 753.1m | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 2.3bn | 527.4m | 1.2bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 2.7bn | 416.4m | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.9bn | 3.5bn | 306.6m | 1.3bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.76 | 5.34 | 0.17 | 2.32 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.82 | 6.3 | 0 | 1.05 – 2.59 |
| 2030 | 0.88 | 6.66 | 0 | 0 – 1.85 |
| 2035 | 0 | 8.17 | 0 | 0 – 1.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BTN · API docs
