Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Bhutan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.72 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±7.0347 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Bhutan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-19.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -19.95 | -1.6 | -30 | -24.01 – -15.88 |
| 2029 | -21.24 | 10.53 | -30 | -28.74 – -13.74 |
| 2031 | -22.53 | 18.48 | -30 | -30 – -12.36 |
| 2036 | -25.76 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -9.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.5 | 37.05 | 26.69 | 30.21 – 32.8 |
| 2027 | 31.52 | 41.12 | 23.19 | 28.63 – 34.4 |
| 2029 | 31.53 | 43.93 | 20.78 | 27.24 – 35.82 |
| 2034 | 31.56 | 49.11 | 16.36 | 24.01 – 39.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4bn | 4.5bn | 3.7bn | 3.9bn – 4.2bn |
| 2029 | 4.5bn | 5.2bn | 3.9bn | 4.2bn – 4.9bn |
| 2031 | 5bn | 5.9bn | 4.2bn | 4.4bn – 5.6bn |
| 2036 | 6.2bn | 7.5bn | 5.1bn | 4.9bn – 7.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.72 | 10.34 | 5.44 | 7.16 – 8.28 |
| 2029 | 8.3 | 12 | 4.36 | 7.14 – 9.45 |
| 2031 | 8.87 | 12 | 3.79 | 7.19 – 10.56 |
| 2036 | 10.32 | 12 | 3.13 | 7.29 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1k | 5.6k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.2k |
| 2029 | 5.7k | 6.6k | 4.9k | 5.2k – 6.1k |
| 2031 | 6.2k | 7.4k | 5.2k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2036 | 7.6k | 9.3k | 6.2k | 6.1k – 9.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 121.43 | 137.33 | 103.08 | 117.04 – 125.81 |
| 2029 | 123.68 | 151.22 | 91.9 | 113.5 – 133.85 |
| 2031 | 125.93 | 161.48 | 84.9 | 110.38 – 141.47 |
| 2036 | 131.55 | 181.84 | 73.54 | 102.77 – 160.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48.6 | 60.85 | 36.35 | 45.95 – 51.25 |
| 2027 | 50.06 | 71.28 | 28.84 | 44.41 – 55.72 |
| 2029 | 51.53 | 78.92 | 24.13 | 43.21 – 59.84 |
| 2034 | 55.19 | 93.93 | 16.45 | 40.43 – 69.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 6.32 | 1.85 | 3.62 – 4.71 |
| 2029 | 4.78 | 8.52 | 0.78 | 3.73 – 5.84 |
| 2031 | 5.41 | 10.23 | 0.24 | 3.91 – 6.91 |
| 2036 | 6.96 | 13.79 | -0.34 | 4.34 – 9.59 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41.09 | 56.19 | 28.01 | 38.28 – 43.91 |
| 2027 | 38.29 | 64.45 | 15.63 | 32.72 – 43.87 |
| 2029 | 35.5 | 69.26 | 6.23 | 27.83 – 43.16 |
| 2034 | 28.5 | 70 | 0 | 17.12 – 39.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed796.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 789.6k | 826.9k | 755k | 765.1k – 814.1k |
| 2029 | 784.5k | 821.5k | 750k | 726.4k – 842.5k |
| 2031 | 779.3k | 816.1k | 745.1k | 690.8k – 867.8k |
| 2036 | 766.4k | 802.7k | 732.8k | 607.5k – 925.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.41 | 15 | -10 | 3.05 – 9.77 |
| 2028 | 6.64 | 15 | -10 | 0.68 – 12.6 |
| 2030 | 6.87 | 15 | -10 | -0.96 – 14.71 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 15 | -10 | -4.05 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.7bn | 714.9m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 2.2bn | 481m | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 2.6bn | 361.7m | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.8bn | 3.4bn | 231.2m | 1.3bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.21 | 11.89 | 2.54 | 6.38 – 8.04 |
| 2027 | 7.92 | 16.02 | 0 | 6.3 – 9.54 |
| 2029 | 8.27 | 18.73 | 0 | 6.01 – 10.53 |
| 2034 | 8.55 | 23.33 | 0 | 4.92 – 12.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.8bn | 750.7m | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 2.3bn | 524.4m | 1.2bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.5bn | 2.7bn | 412.6m | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.9bn | 3.5bn | 300.7m | 1.3bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.76 | 5.34 | 0.17 | 2.32 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.82 | 6.3 | 0 | 1.05 – 2.59 |
| 2030 | 0.88 | 6.66 | 0 | 0 – 1.85 |
| 2035 | 0 | 8.17 | 0 | 0 – 1.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BTN · API docs
