Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Botswana: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in recovery; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.9 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Recovery
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±6.304 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Botswana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.89 | 14.98 | -7.21 | 1.56 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 5.46 | 24.67 | -13.76 | 1.27 – 9.64 |
| 2030 | 7.03 | 30 | -17.78 | 1.4 – 12.65 |
| 2035 | 10.96 | 30 | -24.13 | 2.04 – 19.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.5 | 45.3 | 17.67 | 27.9 – 33.1 |
| 2028 | 27.43 | 53.08 | 5.21 | 22.45 – 32.41 |
| 2030 | 24.37 | 57.47 | 0 | 17.69 – 31.05 |
| 2035 | 16.7 | 63.52 | 0 | 7.34 – 26.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20bn | 23.5bn | 16.9bn | 19.2bn – 20.7bn |
| 2028 | 20.3bn | 26.4bn | 14.9bn | 18.6bn – 22bn |
| 2030 | 20.6bn | 28.5bn | 13.7bn | 18bn – 23.2bn |
| 2035 | 21.3bn | 32.6bn | 11.6bn | 16.6bn – 26.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.9 | 12 | -10 | -5.43 – 1.63 |
| 2028 | -4.49 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.79 |
| 2030 | -7.07 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.32 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.67 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7k | 9.2k | 6.4k | 7.4k – 8k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 10.2k | 5.4k | 6.9k – 8.3k |
| 2030 | 7.5k | 10.8k | 4.6k | 6.5k – 8.5k |
| 2035 | 7.2k | 11.9k | 3.1k | 5.5k – 8.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.15 | 40.87 | 28.55 | 33.71 – 36.6 |
| 2028 | 37.46 | 47.37 | 26.03 | 34.14 – 40.78 |
| 2030 | 39.77 | 52.56 | 25.01 | 34.62 – 44.92 |
| 2035 | 45.54 | 63.63 | 24.67 | 35.47 – 55.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.32 | 44.96 | 27.67 | 34.41 – 38.22 |
| 2028 | 33.92 | 48.9 | 18.95 | 30 – 37.84 |
| 2030 | 31.53 | 50.86 | 12.2 | 26.05 – 37.01 |
| 2035 | 25.55 | 52.89 | 0 | 17.28 – 33.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.93 | 11.86 | -5 | 0.9 – 4.95 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 18.17 | -5 | -0.85 – 6.26 |
| 2030 | 2.48 | 22.45 | -5 | -2.14 – 7.11 |
| 2035 | 1.93 | 30.16 | -5 | -4.64 – 8.5 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.95 | 32.72 | 25.68 | 27.95 – 29.95 |
| 2028 | 30.56 | 37.09 | 24.9 | 28.16 – 32.96 |
| 2030 | 32.17 | 40.6 | 24.87 | 28.39 – 35.95 |
| 2035 | 36.2 | 48.12 | 25.87 | 28.69 – 43.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.4m | 2.5m – 2.6m |
| 2028 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.4m – 2.8m |
| 2030 | 2.6m | 2.8m | 2.5m | 2.3m – 2.9m |
| 2035 | 2.8m | 2.9m | 2.6m | 2.2m – 3.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.11 | 13.84 | -10 | -5.27 – -0.94 |
| 2028 | -5.43 | 15 | -10 | -9.36 – -1.5 |
| 2030 | -7.75 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.39 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1bn | 4.3bn | 2bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 4.3bn | 346.5m | 1.9bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 4bn | 0 | 958.2m – 2bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 547.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.71(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.68 | 8.63 | 2.74 | 5.14 – 6.23 |
| 2027 | 6.84 | 11.95 | 1.74 | 5.73 – 7.95 |
| 2029 | 7.41 | 14 | 0.82 | 5.81 – 9.01 |
| 2034 | 7.86 | 17.19 | 0 | 5.18 – 10.55 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1bn | 4.3bn | 2bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 4.3bn | 346.5m | 1.9bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 4bn | 0 | 958.2m – 2bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 547.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.02 | 26.52 | 23.53 | 24.25 – 25.8 |
| 2028 | 26.12 | 28.71 | 23.53 | 24.19 – 28.05 |
| 2030 | 27.22 | 30.56 | 23.87 | 24.13 – 30.31 |
| 2035 | 29.96 | 34.69 | 25.23 | 23.74 – 36.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BWA · API docs
