Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Botswana: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.3 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±8.3388 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Botswana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.74 | 9.76 | -11.24 | -2.9 – 1.42 |
| 2029 | 1.58 | 19.77 | -16.61 | -2.21 – 5.37 |
| 2031 | 3.9 | 27.38 | -19.58 | -1.21 – 9 |
| 2036 | 9.7 | 30 | -23.51 | 1.37 – 18.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.5 | 45.3 | 17.67 | 27.9 – 33.1 |
| 2028 | 27.43 | 53.08 | 5.21 | 22.45 – 32.41 |
| 2030 | 24.37 | 57.47 | 0 | 17.69 – 31.05 |
| 2035 | 16.7 | 63.52 | 0 | 7.34 – 26.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.5bn | 26.2bn | 19.4bn | 21.7bn – 23.3bn |
| 2029 | 24.1bn | 30.5bn | 18.6bn | 22.2bn – 26bn |
| 2031 | 25.7bn | 33.9bn | 18.6bn | 22.7bn – 28.7bn |
| 2036 | 29.6bn | 41.2bn | 19.6bn | 23.5bn – 35.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.3 | 12 | -2.07 | 4.59 – 8.01 |
| 2029 | 9.62 | 12 | -4.88 | 6.37 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | -6.71 | 7.44 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.6k | 10.2k | 7.3k | 8.3k – 9k |
| 2029 | 9k | 11.7k | 6.7k | 8.3k – 9.8k |
| 2031 | 9.4k | 12.9k | 6.5k | 8.3k – 10.6k |
| 2036 | 10.4k | 15.3k | 6.2k | 8.2k – 12.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.63 | 56.9 | 41.24 | 47.72 – 51.54 |
| 2029 | 54.89 | 67.49 | 40.35 | 50.31 – 59.46 |
| 2031 | 60.15 | 76.41 | 41.38 | 52.83 – 67.46 |
| 2036 | 73.29 | 96.29 | 46.75 | 58.03 – 88.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.32 | 44.96 | 27.67 | 34.41 – 38.22 |
| 2028 | 33.92 | 48.9 | 18.95 | 30 – 37.84 |
| 2030 | 31.53 | 50.86 | 12.2 | 26.05 – 37.01 |
| 2035 | 25.55 | 52.89 | 0 | 17.28 – 33.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.19 | 13.96 | -2.13 | 4.37 – 8.02 |
| 2029 | 9.61 | 23.07 | -4.81 | 6.17 – 13.05 |
| 2031 | 13.03 | 30.4 | -5 | 8.13 – 17.92 |
| 2036 | 21.57 | 46.13 | -4.76 | 12.67 – 30.46 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.95 | 32.72 | 25.68 | 27.95 – 29.95 |
| 2028 | 30.56 | 37.09 | 24.9 | 28.16 – 32.96 |
| 2030 | 32.17 | 40.6 | 24.87 | 28.39 – 35.95 |
| 2035 | 36.2 | 48.12 | 25.87 | 28.69 – 43.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.5m – 2.7m |
| 2029 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.4m – 2.8m |
| 2031 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.3m – 2.9m |
| 2036 | 2.7m | 2.8m | 2.6m | 2.1m – 3.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.11 | 13.84 | -10 | -5.27 – -0.94 |
| 2028 | -5.43 | 15 | -10 | -9.36 – -1.5 |
| 2030 | -7.75 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.39 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1bn | 4.3bn | 2bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 4.3bn | 346.5m | 1.9bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 4bn | 0 | 958.2m – 2bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 547.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.72 | 8.65 | 2.78 | 5.18 – 6.26 |
| 2027 | 6.86 | 11.95 | 1.78 | 5.75 – 7.97 |
| 2029 | 7.42 | 13.99 | 0.86 | 5.82 – 9.02 |
| 2034 | 7.87 | 17.16 | 0 | 5.19 – 10.55 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1bn | 4.3bn | 2bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 4.3bn | 346.5m | 1.9bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 4bn | 0 | 958.2m – 2bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 547.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.02 | 26.52 | 23.53 | 24.25 – 25.8 |
| 2028 | 26.12 | 28.71 | 23.53 | 24.19 – 28.05 |
| 2030 | 27.22 | 30.56 | 23.87 | 24.13 – 30.31 |
| 2035 | 29.96 | 34.69 | 25.23 | 23.74 – 36.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/BWA · API docs
