Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Central African Republic: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.12 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1994-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±5.6455 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Central African Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1995, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.88 | 3.82 | -9.59 | -4.3 – -1.47 |
| 2029 | -1.85 | 9.77 | -13.47 | -4.31 – 0.61 |
| 2031 | -0.82 | 14.18 | -15.82 | -3.96 – 2.32 |
| 2036 | 1.77 | 22.98 | -19.45 | -2.85 – 6.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.55 | 23.68 | 15.97 | 18.64 – 20.45 |
| 2028 | 19.95 | 27.1 | 13.75 | 17.97 – 21.93 |
| 2030 | 20.35 | 29.59 | 12.35 | 17.41 – 23.3 |
| 2035 | 21.37 | 34.43 | 10.05 | 16.08 – 26.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7bn | 4bn | 3.4bn | 3.6bn – 3.8bn |
| 2029 | 4.2bn | 4.8bn | 3.7bn | 3.9bn – 4.5bn |
| 2031 | 4.7bn | 5.5bn | 4bn | 4.2bn – 5.2bn |
| 2036 | 6bn | 7bn | 5bn | 4.7bn – 7.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.12 | 6.52 | 0.18 | 2.51 – 3.74 |
| 2029 | 4.26 | 10.14 | -0.83 | 3.08 – 5.45 |
| 2031 | 5.4 | 12 | -1.18 | 3.7 – 7.1 |
| 2036 | 8.25 | 12 | -1.06 | 5.14 – 11.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed556.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 637.34 | 686.81 | 594.47 | 617.58 – 657.1 |
| 2029 | 699.76 | 785.45 | 625.5 | 647.99 – 751.53 |
| 2031 | 762.18 | 872.8 | 666.3 | 675.64 – 848.71 |
| 2036 | 918.22 | 1.1k | 782.64 | 727.75 – 1.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 66.21 | 71.59 | 60 | 64.15 – 68.26 |
| 2029 | 70.62 | 79.94 | 59.86 | 65.39 – 75.84 |
| 2031 | 75.03 | 87.06 | 61.14 | 66.51 – 83.55 |
| 2036 | 86.05 | 103.07 | 66.42 | 68.2 – 103.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.21 | 37.98 | 28.44 | 31.95 – 34.47 |
| 2028 | 32.51 | 40.77 | 24.25 | 29.69 – 35.33 |
| 2030 | 31.81 | 42.47 | 21.14 | 27.63 – 35.99 |
| 2035 | 30.05 | 45.14 | 14.97 | 22.94 – 37.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.8 | 4.63 | -1.24 | 1.14 – 2.46 |
| 2029 | 2.5 | 7.41 | -2.76 | 1.29 – 3.71 |
| 2031 | 3.19 | 9.53 | -3.59 | 1.53 – 4.85 |
| 2036 | 4.94 | 13.9 | -4.66 | 2.16 – 7.71 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.73 | 18.84 | 11.18 | 13.91 – 15.56 |
| 2028 | 14.53 | 21.64 | 8.37 | 12.82 – 16.25 |
| 2030 | 14.33 | 23.51 | 6.38 | 11.88 – 16.79 |
| 2035 | 13.83 | 26.81 | 2.59 | 9.77 – 17.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.8m |
| 2029 | 5.9m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2031 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.4m – 6.8m |
| 2036 | 6.6m | 7m | 6.2m | 5.2m – 7.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.31 | 3.32 | -1.95 | -0.08 – 0.7 |
| 2028 | 0.1 | 5.31 | -3.82 | -0.6 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | -0.12 | 6.61 | -5.17 | -1.04 – 0.8 |
| 2035 | -0.65 | 8.87 | -7.79 | -2 – 0.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed489.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 499.8m | 629m | 370.7m | 472.1m – 527.6m |
| 2027 | 529.6m | 753.3m | 306m | 470m – 589.3m |
| 2029 | 559.4m | 848.2m | 270.7m | 470.5m – 648.4m |
| 2034 | 633.9m | 1bn | 225.6m | 470m – 797.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.63(1994)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 7.95 | 11.13 | 4.77 | 7.34 – 8.57 |
| 1997 | 5.96 | 11.46 | 0.46 | 4.83 – 7.09 |
| 1999 | 4.98 | 12.09 | 0 | 3.5 – 6.47 |
| 2004 | 4.2 | 14.25 | 0 | 1.99 – 6.41 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed489.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 499.8m | 629m | 370.7m | 472.1m – 527.6m |
| 2027 | 529.6m | 753.3m | 306m | 470m – 589.3m |
| 2029 | 559.4m | 848.2m | 270.7m | 470.5m – 648.4m |
| 2034 | 633.9m | 1bn | 225.6m | 470m – 797.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.17 | 6.57 | 5.77 | 5.98 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.01 | 6.7 | 5.32 | 5.57 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 5.85 | 6.74 | 4.96 | 5.19 – 6.52 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 6.71 | 4.19 | 4.32 – 6.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CAF · API docs
