Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Canada: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.08 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1699 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Canada: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0 | 1.57 | -1.58 | -0.34 – 0.33 |
| 2029 | 0.39 | 3.11 | -2.34 | -0.22 – 0.99 |
| 2031 | 0.78 | 4.3 | -2.74 | -0.02 – 1.57 |
| 2036 | 1.75 | 6.73 | -3.23 | 0.46 – 3.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.43 | 34.95 | 28.37 | 30.42 – 32.43 |
| 2028 | 31.61 | 37.72 | 26.32 | 29.22 – 34 |
| 2030 | 31.8 | 39.68 | 24.96 | 28.13 – 35.47 |
| 2035 | 32.26 | 43.41 | 22.6 | 25.5 – 39.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6T | 2.9T | 2.3T | 2.5T – 2.7T |
| 2029 | 2.8T | 3.3T | 2.4T | 2.6T – 3T |
| 2031 | 3T | 3.7T | 2.4T | 2.7T – 3.3T |
| 2036 | 3.5T | 4.4T | 2.7T | 2.8T – 4.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.08 | 3.24 | -0.79 | 0.7 – 1.46 |
| 2029 | 0.07 | 3.81 | -3.18 | -0.61 – 0.74 |
| 2031 | -0.95 | 3.89 | -5.13 | -1.83 – -0.06 |
| 2036 | -3.48 | 3.36 | -9.4 | -5.17 – -1.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.7k | 69.8k | 54.6k | 59.7k – 63.6k |
| 2029 | 65.3k | 79.4k | 53.1k | 60.4k – 70.1k |
| 2031 | 68.9k | 87.1k | 53.1k | 61.1k – 76.7k |
| 2036 | 77.9k | 103.6k | 55.6k | 61.7k – 94.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 113.05 | 131.26 | 92.04 | 108.44 – 117.66 |
| 2029 | 117.75 | 149.29 | 81.35 | 107.24 – 128.25 |
| 2031 | 122.45 | 163.17 | 75.46 | 106.38 – 138.51 |
| 2036 | 134.19 | 191.78 | 67.74 | 103.86 – 164.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.02 | 34.33 | 29.7 | 31.02 – 33.01 |
| 2028 | 31.69 | 35.69 | 27.68 | 29.34 – 34.03 |
| 2030 | 31.36 | 36.53 | 26.19 | 27.8 – 34.92 |
| 2035 | 30.55 | 37.86 | 23.24 | 24.21 – 36.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.75 | 7.06 | -1.86 | 1.76 – 3.75 |
| 2029 | 3.35 | 10.82 | -4.64 | 1.54 – 5.17 |
| 2031 | 3.95 | 13.59 | -5 | 1.5 – 6.4 |
| 2036 | 5.45 | 19.07 | -5 | 1.56 – 9.34 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.88 | 24.09 | 21.84 | 22.18 – 23.59 |
| 2028 | 22.83 | 24.37 | 21.5 | 21.14 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 22.78 | 24.77 | 21.06 | 20.2 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 22.65 | 25.46 | 20.22 | 17.95 – 27.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.3m | 43.3m | 39.5m | 40m – 42.6m |
| 2029 | 41.2m | 43.2m | 39.4m | 38.2m – 44.3m |
| 2031 | 41.2m | 43.1m | 39.4m | 36.5m – 45.8m |
| 2036 | 41m | 43.2m | 38.8m | 32.5m – 49.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 4.37 | 0.09 | 1.59 – 2.26 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 7.01 | -0.41 | 2.1 – 3.43 |
| 2030 | 3.61 | 9.08 | -0.5 | 2.64 – 4.58 |
| 2035 | 5.72 | 13.46 | -0.09 | 3.83 – 7.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 1.89 | 1.3 | 1.52 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.58 | 2.1 | 1.07 | 1.43 – 1.74 |
| 2030 | 1.58 | 2.24 | 0.92 | 1.35 – 1.81 |
| 2035 | 1.58 | 2.51 | 0.64 | 1.18 – 1.97 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.52 | 8.7 | 4.33 | 6.08 – 6.96 |
| 2029 | 6.56 | 10.34 | 2.77 | 5.66 – 7.45 |
| 2031 | 6.6 | 11.48 | 1.71 | 5.32 – 7.87 |
| 2036 | 6.7 | 13.6 | 0 | 4.57 – 8.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CAN · API docs
