Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Canada: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.9 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7971 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Canada: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.65 | 0.9 | -2.19 | -0.98 – -0.31 |
| 2028 | -0.14 | 2.53 | -2.81 | -0.73 – 0.46 |
| 2030 | 0.37 | 3.82 | -3.07 | -0.41 – 1.16 |
| 2035 | 1.65 | 6.52 | -3.23 | 0.39 – 2.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.43 | 34.95 | 28.37 | 30.42 – 32.43 |
| 2028 | 31.61 | 37.72 | 26.32 | 29.22 – 34 |
| 2030 | 31.8 | 39.68 | 24.96 | 28.13 – 35.47 |
| 2035 | 32.26 | 43.41 | 22.6 | 25.5 – 39.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4T | 2.7T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.4T |
| 2028 | 2.5T | 3T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.7T |
| 2030 | 2.6T | 3.3T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.9T |
| 2035 | 3T | 3.9T | 2.2T | 2.4T – 3.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9 | 12 | -7.05 | 0.15 – 3.65 |
| 2028 | 2.19 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 5.27 |
| 2030 | 2.48 | 12 | -10 | -1.56 – 6.53 |
| 2035 | 3.21 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 9.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56k | 63.9k | 49.2k | 54.2k – 57.9k |
| 2028 | 57.2k | 70.9k | 45.3k | 52.8k – 61.6k |
| 2030 | 58.4k | 76.1k | 43.1k | 51.6k – 65.2k |
| 2035 | 61.4k | 86.4k | 39.7k | 48.6k – 74.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed115.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.2 | 134.3 | 95.32 | 111.56 – 120.84 |
| 2028 | 121.4 | 152.75 | 85.23 | 110.75 – 132.05 |
| 2030 | 126.6 | 167.07 | 79.91 | 110.25 – 142.96 |
| 2035 | 139.61 | 196.84 | 73.57 | 108.46 – 170.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.02 | 34.33 | 29.7 | 31.02 – 33.01 |
| 2028 | 31.69 | 35.69 | 27.68 | 29.34 – 34.03 |
| 2030 | 31.36 | 36.53 | 26.19 | 27.8 – 34.92 |
| 2035 | 30.55 | 37.86 | 23.24 | 24.21 – 36.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.13 | 7.04 | -3.14 | 1 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 10.21 | -5 | -0.27 – 3.66 |
| 2030 | 1.26 | 12.25 | -5 | -1.27 – 3.8 |
| 2035 | 0.18 | 15.72 | -5 | -3.43 – 3.78 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.88 | 24.09 | 21.84 | 22.18 – 23.59 |
| 2028 | 22.83 | 24.37 | 21.5 | 21.14 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 22.78 | 24.77 | 21.06 | 20.2 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 22.65 | 25.46 | 20.22 | 17.95 – 27.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.3m | 43.3m | 39.5m | 40m – 42.6m |
| 2028 | 41.7m | 43.7m | 39.9m | 38.6m – 44.8m |
| 2030 | 42.2m | 44.2m | 40.3m | 37.4m – 46.9m |
| 2035 | 43.2m | 45.3m | 41.3m | 34.3m – 52.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 4.37 | 0.09 | 1.59 – 2.26 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 7.01 | -0.41 | 2.1 – 3.43 |
| 2030 | 3.61 | 9.08 | -0.5 | 2.64 – 4.58 |
| 2035 | 5.72 | 13.46 | -0.09 | 3.83 – 7.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 1.89 | 1.29 | 1.52 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.58 | 2.1 | 1.07 | 1.43 – 1.74 |
| 2030 | 1.58 | 2.24 | 0.92 | 1.35 – 1.81 |
| 2035 | 1.58 | 2.51 | 0.64 | 1.18 – 1.97 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.42 | 9.09 | 3.75 | 5.91 – 6.93 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 10.06 | 0.81 | 4.47 – 6.41 |
| 2030 | 4.46 | 10.43 | 0 | 3.19 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 10.45 | 0 | 0.4 – 3.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CAN · API docs
