Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
CAQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.57 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
CAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.09 | 2.76 | -6.93 | -3.11 – -1.06 |
| 2029 | -2.46 | 5.93 | -10.85 | -4.29 – -0.63 |
| 2031 | -2.83 | 8 | -13.66 | -5.27 – -0.39 |
| 2036 | -3.76 | 11.56 | -19.07 | -7.48 – -0.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6T | 2.9T | 2.4T | 2.6T – 2.7T |
| 2029 | 3.1T | 3.5T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 3.3T |
| 2031 | 3.6T | 4.1T | 3.1T | 3.2T – 4T |
| 2036 | 4.7T | 5.5T | 4T | 3.7T – 5.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.57 | 6.96 | 0.62 | 2.94 – 4.19 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 8.62 | -2.36 | 1.62 – 3.85 |
| 2031 | 1.91 | 9.5 | -4.67 | 0.49 – 3.32 |
| 2036 | -0.17 | 10.56 | -9.48 | -2.12 – 1.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.2k | 16.2k | 12.5k | 13.8k – 14.7k |
| 2029 | 17.1k | 20.5k | 14.1k | 15.8k – 18.3k |
| 2031 | 19.9k | 24.3k | 16.1k | 17.6k – 22.2k |
| 2036 | 27k | 33.2k | 21.6k | 21.4k – 32.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.83 | 31.38 | 17.27 | 23.43 – 26.24 |
| 2029 | 23.89 | 35.24 | 10.8 | 21 – 26.78 |
| 2031 | 22.95 | 37.6 | 6.05 | 18.86 – 27.04 |
| 2036 | 20.6 | 41.32 | 0 | 14.12 – 27.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.33 | 50 | -5 | 12.65 – 28.01 |
| 2029 | 15.43 | 50 | -5 | 1.95 – 28.9 |
| 2031 | 10.53 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 27.81 |
| 2036 | -1.72 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 21.81 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed187.7m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 182.4m | 209.3m | 157.4m | 176.7m – 188.1m |
| 2029 | 136.2m | 182.8m | 92.9m | 126m – 146.4m |
| 2031 | 90m | 150.1m | 34.2m | 78m – 102m |
| 2036 | 0 | 85m | 0 | 0 – 6.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CAQ · API docs
