Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
CBQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.27 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±1.7282 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
CBQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 8.71 | -3.15 | 1.52 – 4.03 |
| 2028 | 5.14 | 15.4 | -5.13 | 2.79 – 7.48 |
| 2030 | 7.49 | 20.75 | -5.76 | 4.19 – 10.8 |
| 2035 | 13.39 | 30 | -5.36 | 7.42 – 19.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed181bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 162.9bn | 185bn | 143.8bn | 157.7bn – 168.2bn |
| 2028 | 184.5bn | 222.8bn | 151.4bn | 170.9bn – 198.2bn |
| 2030 | 206.1bn | 255.5bn | 163.4bn | 182.7bn – 229.5bn |
| 2035 | 260.2bn | 329.9bn | 199.7bn | 206.2bn – 314.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.27 | 12 | -6.39 | 3.74 – 8.81 |
| 2028 | 6.55 | 12 | -10 | 2.02 – 11.09 |
| 2030 | 6.83 | 12 | -10 | 0.84 – 12 |
| 2035 | 7.54 | 12 | -10 | -1.37 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8k | 9.1k | 7k | 7.7k – 8.2k |
| 2028 | 8.9k | 10.9k | 7.2k | 8.2k – 9.6k |
| 2030 | 9.8k | 12.4k | 7.6k | 8.7k – 10.9k |
| 2035 | 12.2k | 15.7k | 9.1k | 9.6k – 14.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.3 | 66.03 | 40.76 | 51.62 – 56.97 |
| 2028 | 52.49 | 72.82 | 29.04 | 46.85 – 58.14 |
| 2030 | 50.69 | 76.93 | 20.42 | 42.6 – 58.78 |
| 2035 | 46.18 | 83.29 | 3.37 | 33.08 – 59.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.27 | 13.03 | -0.96 | 4.68 – 7.87 |
| 2028 | 5.71 | 17.41 | -5 | 2.85 – 8.58 |
| 2030 | 5.15 | 20.25 | -5 | 1.39 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 3.75 | 25.11 | -5 | -1.58 – 9.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.2m | 21.2m | 19.4m | 19.6m – 20.9m |
| 2028 | 20.5m | 21.5m | 19.6m | 19m – 22.1m |
| 2030 | 20.8m | 21.8m | 19.9m | 18.5m – 23.2m |
| 2035 | 21.6m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 17.1m – 26.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CBQ · API docs
