Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
CBQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.71 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
CBQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.61 | 7.61 | -4.38 | 0.36 – 2.86 |
| 2029 | 3.64 | 14.02 | -6.75 | 1.34 – 5.93 |
| 2031 | 5.66 | 19.06 | -7.74 | 2.47 – 8.85 |
| 2036 | 10.72 | 29.67 | -8.23 | 5.14 – 16.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed172.4bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 183.6bn | 205.5bn | 164.6bn | 177.9bn – 189.3bn |
| 2029 | 211.8bn | 249.7bn | 178.9bn | 196.1bn – 227.4bn |
| 2031 | 240bn | 288.9bn | 197.6bn | 212.7bn – 267.2bn |
| 2036 | 310.4bn | 379.6bn | 250.5bn | 246bn – 374.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.71 | 12 | -6.44 | 1.7 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | -0.59 | 12 | -10 | -4.01 – 2.84 |
| 2031 | -4.88 | 12 | -10 | -9.64 – -0.13 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -2.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.9k | 10k | 7.9k | 8.6k – 9.2k |
| 2029 | 10.1k | 12.1k | 8.5k | 9.4k – 10.9k |
| 2031 | 11.4k | 13.9k | 9.2k | 10.1k – 12.7k |
| 2036 | 14.5k | 18k | 11.4k | 11.5k – 17.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.47 | 62.27 | 36.85 | 47.85 – 53.09 |
| 2029 | 47.41 | 67.85 | 23.82 | 41.99 – 52.83 |
| 2031 | 44.34 | 70.73 | 13.89 | 36.74 – 51.95 |
| 2036 | 36.68 | 74 | 0 | 25.07 – 48.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.38 | 13.06 | -0.78 | 4.79 – 7.96 |
| 2029 | 6.66 | 18.23 | -5 | 3.77 – 9.54 |
| 2031 | 6.94 | 21.88 | -5 | 3.07 – 10.8 |
| 2036 | 7.64 | 28.76 | -5 | 1.73 – 13.54 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.4m | 21.4m | 19.5m | 19.8m – 21.1m |
| 2029 | 20.7m | 21.7m | 19.8m | 19.1m – 22.2m |
| 2031 | 20.9m | 21.9m | 20m | 18.5m – 23.3m |
| 2036 | 21.5m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 17.1m – 26m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CBQ · API docs
