Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Central Europe and the Baltics: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.99 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.4965 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Central Europe and the Baltics: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed56.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.85 | 64.28 | 48.55 | 53.76 – 57.95 |
| 2028 | 54.78 | 69.38 | 42.13 | 50.07 – 59.5 |
| 2030 | 53.72 | 72.56 | 37.38 | 46.73 – 60.7 |
| 2035 | 51.04 | 77.69 | 27.94 | 39.07 – 63.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9T | 3.2T | 2.7T | 2.8T – 3T |
| 2028 | 3.4T | 3.9T | 3T | 3.1T – 3.6T |
| 2030 | 3.8T | 4.4T | 3.3T | 3.4T – 4.3T |
| 2035 | 4.9T | 5.8T | 4.2T | 3.9T – 6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.99 | 12 | -5.57 | 1.29 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 4.26 | 12 | -10 | 1.21 – 7.31 |
| 2030 | 5.53 | 12 | -10 | 1.41 – 9.65 |
| 2035 | 8.71 | 12 | -10 | 2.12 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.4k | 32.1k | 27.1k | 28.5k – 30.4k |
| 2028 | 33.9k | 38.6k | 29.8k | 31.4k – 36.4k |
| 2030 | 38.3k | 44.4k | 33.1k | 34k – 42.7k |
| 2035 | 49.5k | 58k | 42.1k | 39.2k – 59.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.49 | 65.92 | 43.07 | 51.87 – 57.12 |
| 2028 | 53.63 | 73.42 | 33.84 | 48.03 – 59.24 |
| 2030 | 52.77 | 78.32 | 27.22 | 44.64 – 60.9 |
| 2035 | 50.62 | 86.75 | 14.49 | 36.99 – 64.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.89 | 17.47 | -5 | 2.02 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.36 | 28.17 | -5 | 1.23 – 11.5 |
| 2030 | 7.84 | 35.99 | -5 | 0.98 – 14.71 |
| 2035 | 11.54 | 50 | -5 | 0.87 – 22.21 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.26 | 22.73 | 19.98 | 20.6 – 21.92 |
| 2028 | 21.02 | 23.57 | 18.81 | 19.47 – 22.58 |
| 2030 | 20.78 | 24.07 | 17.93 | 18.42 – 23.14 |
| 2035 | 20.19 | 24.84 | 16.16 | 16 – 24.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.8m | 104.6m | 95.5m | 96.7m – 102.9m |
| 2028 | 99.6m | 104.3m | 95.2m | 92.2m – 106.9m |
| 2030 | 99.3m | 104m | 94.9m | 88m – 110.6m |
| 2035 | 98.6m | 103.3m | 94.3m | 78.2m – 119.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.01 | 12.98 | -4.47 | 1.72 – 4.31 |
| 2028 | 3.28 | 15 | -9.68 | 0.96 – 5.59 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 15 | -10 | 0.47 – 6.62 |
| 2035 | 4.21 | 15 | -10 | -0.4 – 8.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.95 | 7.92 | 3.99 | 5.56 – 6.35 |
| 2028 | 5.99 | 9.4 | 2.59 | 5.18 – 6.8 |
| 2030 | 6.01 | 10.4 | 1.62 | 4.86 – 7.16 |
| 2035 | 6.03 | 12.24 | 0 | 4.11 – 7.94 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.08 | 4.52 | 3.64 | 3.94 – 4.21 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 4.71 | 3.18 | 3.64 – 4.25 |
| 2030 | 3.81 | 4.8 | 2.82 | 3.36 – 4.27 |
| 2035 | 3.48 | 4.87 | 2.08 | 2.71 – 4.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CEB · API docs
